Author Topic: Win Projection for Season  (Read 15232 times)

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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #105 on: November 07, 2017, 11:56:00 AM »

Offline Tr1boy

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60

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #106 on: November 08, 2017, 10:02:53 AM »

Offline greece66

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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #107 on: March 25, 2018, 09:18:43 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Per Ryan Bernardoni:

Quote
The most commonly referenced statistical projections from ESPN and 538 now show the Celtics as a below .500 team. Other models probably aren’t likely to be too much better. Those ESPN models, based on Real Plus Minus and Box Plus Minus, didn’t particularly like the C’s to begin with. Removing their best all around player puts them near the bottom of the East’s playoff crawl.


I think those statistical models are a bit too cool on the Celts, but it does show you that it's not crazy to think they may not be in the top half of the East anymore.
looks like those models are a joke

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #108 on: March 25, 2018, 09:28:52 PM »

Online SparzWizard

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Per Ryan Bernardoni:

Quote
The most commonly referenced statistical projections from ESPN and 538 now show the Celtics as a below .500 team. Other models probably aren’t likely to be too much better. Those ESPN models, based on Real Plus Minus and Box Plus Minus, didn’t particularly like the C’s to begin with. Removing their best all around player puts them near the bottom of the East’s playoff crawl.


I think those statistical models are a bit too cool on the Celts, but it does show you that it's not crazy to think they may not be in the top half of the East anymore.
looks like those models are a joke

El oh el.


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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #109 on: March 25, 2018, 09:56:45 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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i, for one, am glad they play the games instead of awarding wins based upon models.

unless of course it is the models and prediction here on cb. those we can trust.  ;D
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #110 on: March 25, 2018, 11:11:18 PM »

Offline chilidawg

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50 and counting.  Not gonna make 60 unfortunately.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #111 on: March 25, 2018, 11:31:08 PM »

Offline Big333223

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What a year. I predicted 56 wins with Hayward. Without him, they have a chance of matching that.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #112 on: March 26, 2018, 08:23:12 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Boston won 53 games last year and the team without Hayward is pretty similar.

and the team without Hayward ... is much younger

(giving minutes to Brown, Tatum, Rozier, Semi instead of Bradley, Crowder, Green, Olynyk)

and the team without Hayward ... has no experience playing together


(4 returning players)

and the team without Hayward ... has less reliable outside shooting


(compare Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Green to Brown, Tatum, Morris, Semi ... not to mention larger roles for Smart and Rozier)

and the team without Hayward ... is much thinner than last year's team

(the Celts are one injury to 31 year old Al Horford away from starting Aron Baynes at C and giving heavy minutes to Semi Ojeleye and Daniel Theis ... they're one Kyrie Irving injury away from starting Marcus Smart and relying on Al Horford or Jaylen Brown to be their #1 offensive option)



Honestly, I might be too optimistic with 45 wins.  That feels kind of like a best case scenario.  I guess we just need to hope Horford and Kyrie stay healthy and Kyrie has a MVP caliber campaign.
I will take talent over age any day of the week and twice on Sunday. 

Irving > Thomas
Brown < Bradley
Tatum < Crowder
Morris > Johnson
Horford = Horford
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Baynes > Olynyk
Jerebko, Green, Zeller > Yabusele, Larkin, Ojeleye

So I basically see a wash in the starting lineup, but a better main rotation with a weaker deep rotation this year.  The teams are about the same, and frankly I wouldn't be all that surprised to see both Brown and Tatum better than Bradley and Crowder by the end of the year. 

There is obviously less overall shooting, but I feel much more comfortable with Brown and Tatum as scoring options then I did with Bradley and Crowder in similar roles as Bradley and Crowder were both fairly limited offensively overall (Crowder much moreso than Bradley).

Depth will be a problem and the younger guys will have more "rookie" mistakes, but I also expect more great games from them (like Brown last night).   
looking back, I hit this pretty much on the head (at least the comments part).  I can't wait to see this team with Hayward.  They will be so much better next year after missing Hayward this season then they otherwise would have been as Brown and Tatum got a lot more growth then they would have otherwise gotten.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #113 on: March 26, 2018, 10:58:52 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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Good thread...quite a few posters with egg on their face for doubting this team could win 50 games even without Hayward.


Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #114 on: March 26, 2018, 12:06:26 PM »

Offline footey

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I predicted 60. I started this thread just before the start of reg season when Hayward wend down. I have little doubt they would have won at least that many had he not gotten injured. The silver lining of course is that the injuries have enabled our younger players to mature faster and that will only benefit the team next season. I still have guarded hope they can win the Eastern Conference, and yet would not be shocked if we struggle just to get out of the first round.

 This team post all star break is playing some of its best ball of the season.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #115 on: April 12, 2018, 02:13:57 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Crazy season

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #116 on: April 12, 2018, 02:33:49 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Per Ryan Bernardoni:

Quote
The most commonly referenced statistical projections from ESPN and 538 now show the Celtics as a below .500 team. Other models probably aren’t likely to be too much better. Those ESPN models, based on Real Plus Minus and Box Plus Minus, didn’t particularly like the C’s to begin with. Removing their best all around player puts them near the bottom of the East’s playoff crawl.


I think those statistical models are a bit too cool on the Celts, but it does show you that it's not crazy to think they may not be in the top half of the East anymore.
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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #117 on: April 12, 2018, 02:37:11 AM »

Offline blink

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looks like a couple of guys got it right at 55 wins.  I had 54 wins, but that was before Gordo went down, and I wasn't sure how much I should adjust down.

I think it is safe to say 55 wins is more than most people thought we would win this year.  Hats off to the players, and Brad and the coaching staff for making lemonade out of that shocking start to the season.

Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #118 on: April 12, 2018, 02:45:22 AM »

Online SparzWizard

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looks like a couple of guys got it right at 55 wins.  I had 54 wins, but that was before Gordo went down, and I wasn't sure how much I should adjust down.

I think it is safe to say 55 wins is more than most people thought we would win this year.  Hats off to the players, and Brad and the coaching staff for making lemonade out of that shocking start to the season.

If not for the 16-game winning streak and the sudden stellar productions of Tatum, Brown, Morris, Rozier and the newly acquired Monroe 55 would not have been possible. Tip my hat off to the squad and CBS.


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Re: Win Projection for Season
« Reply #119 on: April 12, 2018, 05:11:57 AM »

Offline JSD

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55-60 wins still.

The East is terrible. The Celtics still have about the same talent as they did last year.


Nailed it.
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