Deduction: Crowder is gone if we sign Hayward

[saltlover]

I haven't seen this posted elsewhere, but lost in the Amir signing with Philly was a rumor that it was nearly as sign-and-trade, with us taking back Okafor.

On the surface it made little sense to me (eww, Okafor), mostly because this would add salary, and we're already a couple million short of max room.  Furthermore, my base assumption has been that Crowder would start at the 4 with Hayward on the team.  But not having max room has been a bit of a hurdle -- keeping Yabusele overseas, dumping Rozier, and dumping Jackson leave us short by a few hundred thousand. It essentially assumes Hayward loves Brad Stevens so much he's willing to leave about a million dollars on the table.  And he may be.  But it still feels presumptive that he'd do that.

However, if the Celtics acquired Okafor, they'd be $6.6 million shy of max room after keeping Yab overseas and dumping Jackson, but keeping Rozier.  Furthermore, Crowder makes $6.7 million and would have fewer minutes available with Okafor on the roster, as well as Brown and Tatum.

Accordingly, I think it likely that Ainge intends to trade Crowder to create the max room that we need if Hayward comes to Boston.  Ideally he will acquire a PF that makes a couple million less in the process.  If Hayward chooses us, get ready for some surprising trades to follow.  Maybe it will be Okafor, maybe someone else.  But I do think Crowder is the odd man out if Hayward comes, which is something that I haven't thought until this afternoon.

[hodgy03038]

Very interesting. Thanks for the analysis.

[Phantom255x]

It's a shame Phil Jackson still isn't in NYK.

If we got Hayward, I would have tried giving up most of our future draft picks (Nets one included), Crowder and another player (not Tatum/Brown) for Porzingis.

[keevsnick]

I haven't seen this posted elsewhere, but lost in the Amir signing with Philly was a rumor that it was nearly as sign-and-trade, with us taking back Okafor.

On the surface it made little sense to me (eww, Okafor), mostly because this would add salary, and we're already a couple million short of max room.  Furthermore, my base assumption has been that Crowder would start at the 4 with Hayward on the team.  But not having max room has been a bit of a hurdle -- keeping Yabusele overseas, dumping Rozier, and dumping Jackson leave us short by a few hundred thousand. It essentially assumes Hayward loves Brad Stevens so much he's willing to leave about a million dollars on the table.  And he may be.  But it still feels presumptive that he'd do that.

However, if the Celtics acquired Okafor, they'd be $6.6 million shy of max room after keeping Yab overseas and dumping Jackson, but keeping Rozier.  Furthermore, Crowder makes $6.7 million and would have fewer minutes available with Okafor on the roster, as well as Brown and Tatum.

Accordingly, I think it likely that Ainge intends to trade Crowder to create the max room that we need if Hayward comes to Boston.  Ideally he will acquire a PF that makes a couple million less in the process.  If Hayward chooses us, get ready for some surprising trades to follow.  Maybe it will be Okafor, maybe someone else.  But I do think Crowder is the odd man out if Hayward comes, which is something that I haven't thought until this afternoon.

Excellent analysis. My first thought when I saw the Okafor news was that it meant Bradley was gone (since he has one year left), but seeing how stacked we are at the 3 and how closely the numbers match up Crowder makes more sense.

Also, I may be the only one but I wouldn't mind Okafor. Ya, he has sucked defensively and may be a dinosaur but I think honestly he needs a culture change. He's a legit 7 feet with like a 7'5 wingspan and some decent footwork. He should be a passbale rim protector based on that alone. Given how much of a dumpster fire Phili was I cant completely blame a guy for a poor attitude. It would also be kind of fun to have the last three #3 picks on the roster.

[Surferdad]

But I do think Crowder is the odd man out if Hayward comes, which is something that I haven't thought until this afternoon.

Really?  It's been obvious to me since those TD Garden cheers for Hayward and Crowder's less-than-diplomatic response.  I just can't see them co-existing nor should they.  The SF position is badly in need of talent upgrade (sorry Jae, you've been good soldier but this team needs more).

Regarding Okafor, I've been a fan, but I do understand the league has gone in a different direction.  Even so, he has to be better than Amir or Zeller.

[slamtheking]

It's a shame Phil Jackson still isn't in NYK.

If we got Hayward, I would have tried giving up most of our future draft picks (Nets one included), Crowder and another player (not Tatum/Brown) for Porzingis.

well thankfully you're not running the team.  giving up most of the picks, including the Nets pick, plus Crowder and what would have to be a decent player (since that's all we'd have left after setting free the team's FAs) would be a gross overpayment.

[slamtheking]

I haven't seen this posted elsewhere, but lost in the Amir signing with Philly was a rumor that it was nearly as sign-and-trade, with us taking back Okafor.

On the surface it made little sense to me (eww, Okafor), mostly because this would add salary, and we're already a couple million short of max room.  Furthermore, my base assumption has been that Crowder would start at the 4 with Hayward on the team.  But not having max room has been a bit of a hurdle -- keeping Yabusele overseas, dumping Rozier, and dumping Jackson leave us short by a few hundred thousand. It essentially assumes Hayward loves Brad Stevens so much he's willing to leave about a million dollars on the table.  And he may be.  But it still feels presumptive that he'd do that.

However, if the Celtics acquired Okafor, they'd be $6.6 million shy of max room after keeping Yab overseas and dumping Jackson, but keeping Rozier.  Furthermore, Crowder makes $6.7 million and would have fewer minutes available with Okafor on the roster, as well as Brown and Tatum.

Accordingly, I think it likely that Ainge intends to trade Crowder to create the max room that we need if Hayward comes to Boston.  Ideally he will acquire a PF that makes a couple million less in the process.  If Hayward chooses us, get ready for some surprising trades to follow.  Maybe it will be Okafor, maybe someone else.  But I do think Crowder is the odd man out if Hayward comes, which is something that I haven't thought until this afternoon.

I'm not an Okafor fan but if we acquired him for a S&T of Amir, I'd be on board with that.

I agree that if Hayward is signed, Crowder logically has to be on his way out in a trade for a serviceable big man. 

[jpotter33]

But I do think Crowder is the odd man out if Hayward comes, which is something that I haven't thought until this afternoon.

Really?  It's been obvious to me since those TD Garden cheers for Hayward and Crowder's less-than-diplomatic response.  I just can't see them co-existing nor should they.  The SF position is badly in need of talent upgrade (sorry Jae, you've been good soldier but this team needs more).

Regarding Okafor, I've been a fan, but I do understand the league has gone in a different direction.  Even so, he has to be better than Amir or Zeller.

Yeah, I've also posited elsewhere that a Hayward signing implies a Crowder trade based on their "history" (or at least Crowder's immaturity) from this past season.

But what starting-level PF would we get to replace him with that salary?

[hpantazo]

Signings are not made official until next week, so we can see if we miss out on Hayward, and then still turn the Amir signing into a sign and trade with Phili. They may need that cap space after blowing big money on Reddick.

[greece66]

what about trading bradley?

I understand AB fits better in our starting 5 if Hayward comes, but Crowder's contract is so good, it will be a pain to see him gone.

[Kuberski33]

what about trading bradley?

I understand AB fits better in our starting 5 if Hayward comes, but Crowder's contract is so good, it will be a pain to see him gone.

I was just about to ask this question and my computer crashed...lol   If you're not going to re-sign Bradley move him this summer and try to get a young player with potential back or (ducking) another 1st round pick.

[saltlover]

But I do think Crowder is the odd man out if Hayward comes, which is something that I haven't thought until this afternoon.

Really?  It's been obvious to me since those TD Garden cheers for Hayward and Crowder's less-than-diplomatic response.  I just can't see them co-existing nor should they.  The SF position is badly in need of talent upgrade (sorry Jae, you've been good soldier but this team needs more).

Regarding Okafor, I've been a fan, but I do understand the league has gone in a different direction.  Even so, he has to be better than Amir or Zeller.

I've always been of the opinion that Crowder would be kept, and that he and Hayward would both start, which would smooth everything over until Brown (and now potentially Tatum) took his spot.  His contract is just too good.  But getting an Okafor makes some sense, since the contracts are more comparable.  Crowder can't create off the dribble, which we need, but he was a very good player last year.

[saltlover]

what about trading bradley?

I understand AB fits better in our starting 5 if Hayward comes, but Crowder's contract is so good, it will be a pain to see him gone.

I've always thought that would be the plan, but the Okafor interest pushed me the other direction.  That would mean a lot of two-big lineups, and ultimately that means fewer minutes for Jae.

We'll see if I'm right (and without Hayward we'll never know), but that's how I see it playing out.

[Phantom255x]

Wait... So basically trade Crowder for Okafor? That seems like a massive overpay on our part lol.

I mean I wouldn't mind taking a flier on Okafor and seeing what he can do with Brad Stevens as coach.

[chambers]

I actually thought if he didn't start at PF with Hayward here, we'd keep him as our own version of Iguadala off the bench.