Rudy Gobert: "Bust potential goes automatically up 50% when you're from Europe."

[makaveli]

i fear that Mario Hezonja might be making the list, officially after next year.
good topic, but you could have done a much better job in the OP
jan veselly 6th pick, 2011, bust

[Androslav]

Bargnani isn't a bust, at least not the way I would define a bust. He was a big disappointment, no doubt, but a guy who scores 15-20 a game for several years and stays in the league a decade, even though is D was awful, isn't really a bust.

A bust is Gregg Oden, who barely even stepped foot on the floor, or Kwame Brown or Anthony Bennett, barely playing and putting up 4 points a game. Or Thomas Robinson (is he even still in the league?).

Just looking back a few years, I don't see that Euro players are any more likely to (totally) bust than American players.

I know this. Give me a Euro by the name of Doncic in next year's draft and I'll take my chances.

I totally agree about Bargnani, sure he failed to live up to many other historical #1 picks, but it isn't like he wasn't effective for a long time.  And if you look at the top 10 from his draft, he probably goes 3 or 4 in a re-draft (depending on how you evaluate Roy) with only Aldridge and Gay clearly having better careers (again depending on what you do with Roy).  Only Redick would go ahead of him if you extended the range out to the top 20.  21-30 you have Lowry and Rondo and no one else that would go ahead of him in a re-draft.  So if you re-did the entire 2006 1st round, Bargnani still goes 6 or 7.  It is pretty hard to call him a bust given that.  Disappointment, sure, bust nope.

Biedrins and Bargnani had their moments I agree. Borderline.
My arguments were:
Biedrins was effective from age 20 to 22. He was also on the floor 24 mpg in the playoffs during that "We believe" year. After that his wheels came of he was never the same again and the league shifted to more skill and speed. 11th pick 3/4 good years, 4/5 injury plagued ones.
Bargz was an NBA starter level player for about 3 years, age 23/25. Scoring with size, even with abyssmal defense that was the thing back then. Then injuries followed and he made 29/46 games throughout his last 5 seasons. Also, he never had drtg below ortg for a season in his career.
As you wrote:
So if you re-did the entire 2006 1st round, Bargnani still goes 6 or 7.
When we are talking about the no 1. pick that could be the definition of a bust. Pick order matters.

[Moranis]

Bargnani isn't a bust, at least not the way I would define a bust. He was a big disappointment, no doubt, but a guy who scores 15-20 a game for several years and stays in the league a decade, even though is D was awful, isn't really a bust.

A bust is Gregg Oden, who barely even stepped foot on the floor, or Kwame Brown or Anthony Bennett, barely playing and putting up 4 points a game. Or Thomas Robinson (is he even still in the league?).

Just looking back a few years, I don't see that Euro players are any more likely to (totally) bust than American players.

I know this. Give me a Euro by the name of Doncic in next year's draft and I'll take my chances.

I totally agree about Bargnani, sure he failed to live up to many other historical #1 picks, but it isn't like he wasn't effective for a long time.  And if you look at the top 10 from his draft, he probably goes 3 or 4 in a re-draft (depending on how you evaluate Roy) with only Aldridge and Gay clearly having better careers (again depending on what you do with Roy).  Only Redick would go ahead of him if you extended the range out to the top 20.  21-30 you have Lowry and Rondo and no one else that would go ahead of him in a re-draft.  So if you re-did the entire 2006 1st round, Bargnani still goes 6 or 7.  It is pretty hard to call him a bust given that.  Disappointment, sure, bust nope.

Biedrins and Bargnani had their moments I agree. Borderline.
My arguments were:
Biedrins was effective from age 20 to 22. He was also on the floor 24 mpg in the playoffs during that "We believe" year. After that his wheels came of he was never the same again and the league shifted to more skill and speed. 11th pick 3/4 good years, 4/5 injury plagued ones.
Bargz was an NBA starter level player for about 3 years, age 23/25. Scoring with size, even with abyssmal defense that was the thing back then. Then injuries followed and he made 29/46 games throughout his last 5 seasons. Also, he never had drtg below ortg for a season in his career.
As you wrote:
So if you re-did the entire 2006 1st round, Bargnani still goes 6 or 7.
When we are talking about the no 1. pick that could be the definition of a bust. Pick order matters.

Sure, but getting the 6th or 7th best player from a draft isn't really a bust even at #1.  I mean if you re-did the 2001 top 10, Kwame Brown goes 6th or 7th (depending on how you rate him vs. Eddy Curry).  You get at least 8 more players the rest of the 1st round that would go ahead of him.  That is the definition of a bust.  He wouldn't even be a lottery pick in a 1st round only re-draft.  Same with the Kandi man and Bennett from more recent drafts (not counting Oden who got hurt).  He obviously wasn't the best pick from a value standpoint, but if the standard you hold a #1 pick out to be is that guy must be the best player from his draft or he is a bust, it is pretty difficult standard to obtain, and one far more #1 draft picks fail to achieve.  I mean is Blake Griffin a bust because Harden and Curry were drafted after him?  What if DeRozan also ends up with a better career?  Is Blake Griffin a bust because he would have gone 3rd or 4th in a re-draft instead of 1?  If he isn't a bust how do you draw the line, is it top 5 in a re-draft?  Or is it just subjective, i.e. I'll know it when I see it type thing. 

[PhoSita]

I'm guessing Rudy was being sarcastic, given the fact that he is very clearly not a bust, he's European, and he was taken late in the draft because of perceived bust potential.

[Eja117]

Well this all depends on your definition of "bust", which I understand is a trigger word these days. If I am to discuss this I want to give you all a trigger warning right now.

[greece66]

Joakim Noah is American.

Also, Brazil is not in Europe.

Noah is an easy mistake to make bcs he has played for the French national selection.

Not sure what you mean by Brazil though. I went through Androslav's list again to be sure, and didn't see the mistake you imply.

[greece66]

I'm guessing Rudy was being sarcastic, given the fact that he is very clearly not a bust, he's European, and he was taken late in the draft because of perceived bust potential.

Yep.

There is a history of players who don't come from American colleges (mainly, but not only Europeans) getting taken later than what hindisght suggests.

I'm cherrypicking here, but here is a chronological list.

Kukoc (29), Nowitzki (9), Tony Parker (28), Marc Gasol (48), Giannis (15).

Even Pau at 3 doesn't look so good if you consider the players drafted before him were Kwame Brown and Tyson Chandler.

I don't have the time know to go in full length into this, but as far as my memory suggests there is indeed a trend.

One explanation for it would be that several of these players came out of obscure leagues (Giannis played in A2, Dirk in the Second Bundesliga). But there was until some years ago a prejudice against non-American players. That was the case in the 80s and the 90s,  and it might still affect some of the lesser known prospects.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Joakim Noah is American.

Also, Brazil is not in Europe.

Noah is an easy mistake to make bcs he has played for the French national selection.

Not sure what you mean by Brazil though. I went through Androslav's list again to be sure, and didn't see the mistake you imply.

Post was edited, don't recall who was mentioned.