Yes, but here’s what we do know.
Here's what you don't know. The level of his competition. Maybe i am wrong but i think it is important in order to place the things you know into context
He wasn’t supposed to get many minutes behind Semih Erden.
Says who ? Erden today is a d-league level center and not the 10mpg NBA player you remember
We absolutely know the level of competition. He is not only competing in Euro league which is more completive than the NCAA he is playing significant minutes and machining a serious statistical impact.
Semih Erden was a good rotational quality player like a Zeller that just didn’t get any love from Doc. He’s been playing meaningful minutes in Europe and you think he’s a D leaguer? He was better than that when he was here. Just because a guy like Erden will make more and play more in Europe, doesn’t mean he can’t play here.
What makes players succeed and even excel in the NBA is the ability to reach or exceed their potential. To do this players hone their strengths and improve upon and/or eliminate weaknesses in their game. When we draft a player we are drafting an incomplete product and hoping they can overcome some weakness. One of the things that has me excited and is a good reason for the buzz surrounding Zizic is the speed at which he is addressing his weaknesses.
Lets compare Zizic to Zeller to illustrate my point. Zeller is a back up big and is good enough for rotational minutes on a good team. He is not what anyone would want as a started and a real contender would hope for more off the bench. Zeller went 17 because he has weaknesses that looked tough to over come.
Zeller’s Weaknesses:
Even though Zeller has good height for the C spot, he certainly doesn’t have very good strength …
Still a problem
When he faces strong big men down low, they can easily seal and establish position on him for pretty easy shots …
Still a problem
He’s also not the toughest guy down low, and struggles with defensive rebounding and physical play inside on both ends …
Still a problem
Has a high center of gravity, and can be pushed out of the post by defenders with leverage …
Still a problem
Although he has most of his upside on the offensive end, he’s still a bit raw in his feel for the D and will force shots when kick outs are available …
He has improved greatly here
Doesn’t react to double teams very well …
He’s not good enough to draw a double team in the NBA ha ah
Not a particularly selfish player, but Zeller rarely looks to pass the ball back out …
He does do this now
Should look to add some left handed moves to his arsenal, as his jump hook is his only truly noteworthy move in the paint …
Nope still a one trick pony
He also should work on being less mechanical in his approach, as he can be turnover prone or get caught in awkward situations at times in the half-court offense …
Still a problem
Although his jumper is promising, he’s going to need repetition with it as it hasn’t been utilized a lot during his UNC career .
He has a nice mid range jumper now
Result his offensive game improved enough to keep him in the league coming of the bench but not good enough to be a starting caliber center. When our front curt was extra sucky he got some starts but he is really a 10th to 12th man off the bench on a good team.
Could he have been more, sure but he couldn’t get past his weaknesses. He looked great in college but he couldn’t translate to the NBA at the same level.
So what’s different about Zizic?
Zizic Weaknesses:
[Note: His pre draft scouting report was from when he was 18, he didn’t get back to the US to go through Euro camp (he did do it in 2015) or the Combine, before the draft as he was busy playing pro ball. Danny did travel to see him live and work him out in Europe before the draft. He wasn’t a top pick so there wasn’t much need to update his profile.]
Good but not great size for a center …
Really? Cousins is 6’11 270 at 26 years old. Zizic is 7’ 260 at 20 years old.
Not a versatile player, since he can only play at the center position …
That’s what we need! But in an early season interview he said he has been working on his game so he can play the 4 or the 5. We’ll see, looks like he has been staying at the 5 so far. But again WE NEED A CENTER!
Considered an average athlete by NBA standards …
He makes up foe it with a non-stop motor and the sheer will to make the play, dare I say somewhat like we see from Crowder.
Has to continue bulking up his body …
Look at him on film from last year to this year, he is much bigger now.
The fact that he needs time to gather before jumping can really hurt him at the next level …
Look at him on film he gets up quick now.
His footwork needs work on both ends of the floor …
This has improved on both ends of the floor, a big reason for his outstanding statistics this year.
He might not be afraid of contact, but in reality he has problems against bigger and more athletic bigs …
Not any more. He has struggled against no one this year including his 4 games in the more challenging league. Again this is a big reason for the hype train.
Has problems finishing through traffic …
Not anymore. Film don’t lie, he is crushing people now.
Not as adept at finishing at the rim with his left hand …
Not any more. Again, film don’t lie. Watch the tape, he finishes at the rim with the left effortlessly.
His post game is mostly dependant upon strength and needs polishing …
He doesn’t have the dream shake down, but he now has a few simple moves. They work and it’s a start.
Although he can turn to both shoulders when he plays with his back to the basket, the truth is that he actually doesn’t have many counter moves …
So far no one has been able to stop the moves he has, so there hasn’t been a need to counter anything.
For the time being he can’t be considered a threat from mid-range…
Excellent FT shooting = high potential for a mid range game (see Zelller). Also we have seen the occasion very nice looking mid range jumper. But when he can’t be stopped in the paint, even with a double team, why take a jump shot?
He doesn’t have a Face to the basket game…
He is starting to show signs of having one. Nothing to rave about but the beginning of one is evident.
At times he tries to do things too fast, which leads to bad decisions…
He has 1.2:2 assist to turnover ratio now. I think that is good for a big man, at least a 20 year old.
Feel for the game is a question mark …
He seems to have a really good feel for the game from watching him, at least this year. Film don’t lie.
Has to improve his ball handling …
He’s not really handing the ball in a point center way, but he is touching the ball a lot. He looks comfortable with the ball in his hands.
Turnover prone (3.4 turnovers per 36 minutes in Adriatic League) …
He’s only averaging 2 this year so that is almost cutting his turnovers in half. That is big time improvement.
Bad passer (barely averages 0.5 assists per 36 minutes in Adriatic League)…
He is averaging 1.2 now, so again big time improvement.
His Assist/Turnover Ratio is bad (1 assist every 6 turnovers in Adriatic League) …
Now its 1.2 for every 2, so once again big time improvement.
When he sets screens on Pick And Roll situations he has the tendency to roll at the wrong side …
Not anymore he is killing it as a role man, film don’t lie.
Lateral quickness is average …
So far not a problem in the Adriatic, Turkish, or Euro league. We’ll see in the NBA. I’m optimistic he can move as well as if not better than KO.
Struggles defending the Pick And Roll against quick guards …
Not anymore
Occasionally loses concentration on Defense, because he is too focused on the ball …
He is dialed in now, 1.2 blocks a game and .7 steals a game.
It’s difficult to imagine him become an elite rim protector because of his average size and athleticism …
Average size? 7’ with a 7’3 wing span, really? He is bigger than anyone else on our team. He also isn’t giving up too much when compared to some prospects we are currently looking at obtaining: Noel 6’11 with a 7’4 wingspan; Okafor 6’11 with a 7’5 wingspan; Cousins 6’11 with a 7’6 wingspan; Vucevic 7’ with a 7’4 wingspan; Bogut 7’ with a 7’3 wingspan.
So he hasn’t played in the NBA yet. We have had a hole at the center position for a long time. He has the skills we need. He is better offensively than Noel but not as good defensively. He is better defensively than Okafor but not as good offensively. He is a nice middle ground between the two. He will be awesome as a back up center right away, should we trade for a starting caliber center, and he looks like he may become a good starting caliber two-way center.
Okafor is 21 and Noel is 22. We haven’t seen any improvements in their areas of weakness yet, but at 20 Zizic has already shown that he is getting better where it matters most. This is why people are so excited about Zizic. You want to compare someone to Mickey, compare Yabusele. He looked good in summer league and is putting up crazy numbers in the CBA, but no one is going nuts over him. He is like Mickey a lot of talent but it looks like he will be held back by his weaknesses. It is the major improvements by Zizic not merely that he’s putting up big numbers that has people interested in him.