Do you get the sense Ainge ignores external perceptions of draftees?

[ConnerHenry]

You know who else disregards external opinion of talent? Hint...  He is the coach of that pretty good football team across town.

I'd feel a lot more comfortable with this analogy if there was a similar success rate. BB has gotten so good at it, no one questions his picks - like Vollmer and Collins

[BitterJim]

You know who else disregards external opinion of talent? Hint...  He is the coach of that pretty good football team across town.

I'd feel a lot more comfortable with this analogy if there was a similar success rate. BB has gotten so good at it, no one questions his picks - like Vollmer and Collins

People still do question his questionable picks, though - like Tavon Wilson

[Snakehead]

All the GMs do this.  As I said in another thread, about half of the first 30 picks were "reaches" if you went by mock drafts and all that.  People put way too much stock in that.  It's a little weird media niche that is meaningless.  Guys like Chad Ford make a living mostly being wrong and then acting like they know everything every year (to the point where he has edited his rankings after the fact).

[Snakehead]

I think real GMs ignore the media mock drafts. 


They have to go with their board with the belief that there are other teams that also have the same players highly ranked.

But we often get the sense that the media mock drafts come from intel from actual teams.   So if every other team supposedly sees Yabusele or Rozier as a 2nd rounder, wouldn't that mean Ainge could just trade down to get his guy?  Or do you think that when we read these mocks that have Rozier/Yabusele in the 2nd round, they might be entirely untrue and misinformation fed to the media?

I do not believe that at all.

They are evaluations by media guys who watch these guys play.  Some are good, some are not.  The people who are actually good evaluators mostly go work for teams vs working in the media in a position where accuracy is of so little importance.

The Cavs and Bulls were both very high on Rozier last year and would have drafted him after us if we had not.

[Eja117]

I don't believe he would have drafted Durant over Oden. I would say that

[elcotte]

I don't believe he would have drafted Durant over Oden. I would say that

I believe 100% that he would have drafted Durant over Oden.

[SHAQATTACK]

He works hard to gather assets .....then just tosses the whole mess down the drain.

He is a good trader at gathering a decent deal.....but poor gambler and very very very poor at recognizing talent. 

He is stuck on defensive guards .....his brain can't move past that.

Sometimes you have to do the right thing that is right under your nose.

Ainge was off his meds last night.

[LarBrd33]

From an article I just read:

Ainge, who said during his Friday morning spot on Toucher and Rich that he pays zero attention to mock drafts, clearly doesn’t give two hoots about whether fans liked the No. 3 pick, or the selection of Guerschon Yabusele at 16, which should be a reason to further admire the Celtics boss. He also nailed why fans boo or cheer a certain pick: familiarity. Ainge cited examples of fans booing unfamiliar picks while he was in Phoenix – taking Steve Nash over John Wallace in ’96 being one example.

[SCeltic34]

I believe Ainge stated in one interview that they basically make a list, 1 through 60, of the players they want.  Mitch Kupchak said the same thing.

Ainge would have heard boos no matter who the pick was.  Bender?  Lots of C's nation would have been upset.  Dunn?  People who wanted Brown would have boo'd the pick.  So on and so forth.  He right to not care about being boo'd

[kozlodoev]

I don't believe he would have drafted Durant over Oden. I would say that

At this point, it seems you don't believe anything that comes out of his mouth if it doesn't suit you, so why bother?

[greece66]

I like this thread; it is moving the conversation in the right direction.

To begin with, I agree with previous commenters that FO decisions have nothing to do with mock drafts. By the time something goes to DX it is already common knowledge to the League. It is a safe bet that scouts and GMs have access to this info weeks before it appears online.

Having said this, I think larbrd has a point in claiming that Ainge is independent minded. I got this feeling last year with Rozier. It was not just C's fans that were surprised: most NBA fans were surprised by that pick.

Similarly this year. It is not just the first rounders.
 Nader at #58 is revealing IMO. We picked someone that was off the radar for most teams. I do not know if he will pan out or not but the only way you can get such a player is by having lots of workouts and trusting your own ability to make good choices.

Another thing about Ainge is that he is confident enough not to worry about being embarrassed. We all have gone through this experience of having a feeling about what is the right choice but doing something else due to peer pressure or from fear of looking silly to other people. Ainge is immune to this.

PS Something more to notice here: in previous years DX was OK at its predictions. This year was full of surprises: teams giving more chances to international prospects, and Deyonta Davis who had an OK record at college went to the second round.
And that was despite DX kept making major changes to its mock until a few days before the draft: is there sthg special about this year's draftees? did some sources decide to stop passing information to the draft sites? At any rate, Ainge was in good company this year in surprising fans. And I hope for draft 'experts' to acquire a more down to earth tone in the future, although this is highly unlikely.

EDIT: typos

[greece66]

From an article I just read:

Ainge, who said during his Friday morning spot on Toucher and Rich that he pays zero attention to mock drafts, clearly doesn’t give two hoots about whether fans liked the No. 3 pick, or the selection of Guerschon Yabusele at 16, which should be a reason to further admire the Celtics boss. He also nailed why fans boo or cheer a certain pick: familiarity. Ainge cited examples of fans booing unfamiliar picks while he was in Phoenix – taking Steve Nash over John Wallace in ’96 being one example.

sauce?

I googled the quote but the first result is our thread (which is something to be proud of I guess  )

I also get a vid on csnne.com, but I'd rather have a written sauce.

[kozlodoev]

From an article I just read:

Ainge, who said during his Friday morning spot on Toucher and Rich that he pays zero attention to mock drafts, clearly doesn’t give two hoots about whether fans liked the No. 3 pick, or the selection of Guerschon Yabusele at 16, which should be a reason to further admire the Celtics boss. He also nailed why fans boo or cheer a certain pick: familiarity. Ainge cited examples of fans booing unfamiliar picks while he was in Phoenix – taking Steve Nash over John Wallace in ’96 being one example.

sauce?

I googled the quote but the first result is our thread (which is something to be proud of I guess  )

I also get a vid on csnne.com, but I'd rather have a written sauce.

http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/06/24/danny-ainge-on-toucher-rich-celtics-certainly-not-done-making-moves-after-trade-less-draft/

[LarBrd33]

It should be noted that it might not be just the media that Ainge ignores.

Chad Ford's annual draft tier article is based on info he gets from scouts and front offices.  He had Jaylen Brown as a Tier-3 prospect (players without star potential who project as starters), but mentioned that Jaylen Brown and Dragan Bender were the only two players in Tier 3 that had received Tier 4 votes.

So if Ford's intel is correct, that means some scouts/front offices saw Brown as projected as a future role player/backup.  This is backed up by the several computer models that suggested Brown would struggle on the NBA level and had the highest bust potential of any player in the top 18.   

So it seems AInge and his team ignore all of that and take who they want.  And that's fine... but if the info is true, they might have been able to trade down (or up) to get Brown at #8.   

It must be tough to be in Ainge's position, though.  Because you never know if teams are giving misinformation and feeding the media lies.   It's possible, I guess, that a team below Ainge like the Suns were also super high on Jaylen Brown.  And perhaps Ainge felt it was best to just grab the guy he wanted and not worry about it.   That's how you get teams taking someone like Anthony Bennett at #1 - they ignore what everyone else supposedly thinks.

[Eja117]

I don't believe he would have drafted Durant over Oden. I would say that

At this point, it seems you don't believe anything that comes out of his mouth if it doesn't suit you, so why bother?

It's called critical thinking. Maybe you should try it some time.