Celticsblog, it's time to get over the obsession with semi-failed Philly big man draft picks. Almost every proposed trade on this forum involves the #3 pick for some Philadelphia big man that they've drafted over the last 3 seasons. Almost every proposed trade is an absolutely boneheaded idea. Here's why.
First of all, I'd encourage folks to read my post here about misconceptions about the #3 pick:
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=84600.0. But to be specific, the #3 pick is worth far more than most people believe. This draft isn't exceptional but by no means does it appear to be weak. It appears to be a typical draft class. Here's the last of the last 11 #3 picks with enough time gone by to start to judge their careers:
Otto Porter
Beal
Kanter
Favors
Harden
OJ Mayo
Hortford
Morrison
Deron Williams
Ben Gordon
'Melo
Since this is only #3, I didn't include superstars like Cousins, Curry, Paul, Wade and Westbrook - all of whom were selected between #4 and #7. I like those odds.
Bust: 1 (Morrison)
Role Player: 2 (Porter, Mayo)
Above-Average: 3 (Kanter, Beal, Favors)
All-Stars: 3 (Hortford, Williams, Gordon)
Superstars: 2 (Melo, Harden)
Not all of those drafts were considered stacked. In fact, most of them were seen like this one - average with one or two clear-cut guys at the top. Yet the #3 pick turned out almost half the time to be an All-Star - and it's quite possible Favors, Kanter and/or Beal end up making an All Star game. By the way, this 11 year span isn't an aberration. Since 1980 the #3 pick has a 49% chance of being an All-Star!
Simply put, historically the pick is worth a lot. Now to consider moving it for any of the Philly bigs, the first assumption you have to make is that the pick isn't that valuable and that any player you draft isn't going to be anything special. Now it's quite possible to make that assumption but anyone who does has to realize that they are
making an assumption that bucks a long-standing historical trend. It's not rational or reasonable to try to write off the All-Stars as being drafted in stacked draft classes since 50% of the drafts can't be stacked!
In addition, here are some trades for the #3 overall pick in recent memory:
#3 for #6, #27 and a future 1st.
#3 for Shareef Abdur-Rahim (who was 25, putting up 20/9 and had win shares of around 8 for the past 4 seasons)
#3 for #5 plus Mike Miller (16ppg that year)
All 3 of these trades show that the #3 pick has quite a high worth. We're not talking role-player territory here folks. We're talking about a fair chance at a very valuable contributor.
Ok, so let's turn to the Philly bigs. All of them have potential of course. Otherwise they wouldn't be drafted where they were. But if the Cs use the #3 to acquire any of these guys it's quite likely it's going to look like a repeat of the Jrue Holiday trade. How did that work out for the Pelicans? Why do I think this? Let's look at the 3 contestants:
Stooge #1 - Nerlens Noel
Noel is a 22 year old defensive stalwart with a very limited offensive game. Picked 6th overall 3 years ago, he only has 1 year left on his rookie contract before he's a RFA. Noel has been solid and steady but has shown little growth in his game, averaging 11 points and 8 boards per game. He's a solid young big man but he's neither a superstar nor an All-Star. He's a 3 win share player and that's simply not good enough for the #3 pick. And of the 3 Philly big men, he's the guy I would want the most. He's just not worth a Brooklyn pick. Not when you consider production. Not when you consider contract status. I'd like to see him in green but not for that price.
Stooge #2 - Embiid
People who want to offer the #3 pick for Embiid are clearly out of their minds. All Embiid had entering the NBA was potential but it's important to remember Embiid was NEVER considered a sure-fire superstar when he was picked. There were serious questions about his durability, injury history, his lack of polish (6 fouls per 40 minutes), turnovers, lower body strength, defensive and offensive awareness and even his motivation. His draft position was based on his rare physical gifts and great upside. But he was considered raw, like steak tartare-raw. But because he was so young there was time to work with him and that was considered a mitigating factor. Now here we are two years later. He hasn't played at all. There are still questions about his health. His rookie contract is 1/2 done and he hasn't seen the court. He hasn't played in a competitive game of basketball for over 2 years. Why would anyone think his value has increased?
Some may think pursuing a trade for Embiid is "swinging for the fences". It's more like "Walter Mitty Pipe Dream". There's just no possible way you can consider him for a pick that already has a 50% chance of being an All-Star when there's a fair possibility that Embiid never plays meaningful minutes in the NBA. Is he worth it if there's a good opportunity to get him? Sure. Is he worth #3? Not by a long shot.
Stooge #3 - Oakfor
This one is the most talked about and is the one that should be the most feared. I'd encourage everyone to read this:
http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/boston-celtics/celtics-avoid-jahlil-okafor-costs/. Every single advanced metric says that Okafor was absolutely horrible last season. His biggest claim to fame is his offense. Some people want to point to his 17ppg as some sort of barometer that he's a great offensive player. Except Philly was 7.5 points better on offense when he was
off the court. Think about that for a second - Okafor's best claim to fame is his offense and yet Philly was clearly better when he was sitting on the bench. That is an incredibly [dang]ing statistic because if Okafor isn't valuable on the offensive end, what good is he? It's quite simple - someone has to put up some statistics for Philly (aka Jrue Holiday) but it's foolish to attribute those to being anything but empty stats. And yet some actually advocate adding more to the trade! Talk about throwing the baby out with the bathwater...
Now that's not to say that Okafor, Embiid or Noel don't somehow blossom later in their careers or in a new environment. But none of the 3 are worth the #3 overall pick. Teams only trade a pick that high for an exceptional young talent or an All-Star and none of these guys fit that role.
Assuming Philly does not trade down, they're going to probably take Simmons. Noel. Embiid, Okafor. Simmons. That's a massive log jam in the front court and they're going to have to move someone. Like Danny and his 8 picks in this years' draft, it's not going to be a fire sale. But it's also clear that none of these guys are so good that Philly has the league over a barrel. No one is giving them a top 3 pick for these guys. Neither should the Celtics.
Topic: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades (Read 7665 times)