There are a bunch of misconceptions about the #3 pick and the 2016 draft this year. Let's clear them up.
(1)
"It's a two player draft"
No, it's not. Last year was supposedly a two player draft and the #2 player wasn't picked until #3. The time before it was a two player draft the #3 pick was a 4 time All-Star. Simply put, the only way we'll know it was a two player draft is 5 or 10 years from now. What typically happens is that there are one or two clear-cut prospects due to talent, age or hype prior to the pre-draft workouts. Most often players separate themselves in those workouts. Since those workouts haven't happened yet, there's not a lot of buzz out there yet on some other player.
For instance, if Jamal Murray comes into workouts and shows a better ability to pass or better-than-thought physical skills, he's going to SHOOT up in value. If Jaylen Brown interviews well and shows more polish then he's going to get the buzz. But until those workouts happen, we won't know.
(2)
"The #3 pick is not worth that much"Since 1980 #3 picks have actually fared better than #2 picks. In the last 15 years guys like Beal, Harden, Hortford, 'Melo and Gasol have been picked that this spot. Historically it's not cheap to trade for the #3 pick either. It's worth far more than an above-average vet or just a middle-of-the-road player.
(3)
"Well, that history is all fine and nice but that has nothing to do with this particular draft"See point #1. The player evaluations aren't in yet. What looks like an obvious truth now will look very, very different by draft night. It's always does. Plus there's always a perceived value with a draft pick that high. The Seven Dwarves could be the prime prospects this year and there would still be a perceived, historical value in being able to pick Dopey 3rd.
4.
"There's no difference between #3 and #10 in this draft"Hogwash. No one is predicting Bender, Hield or Murray to fall to #10. Right now there's a tier 1 in Simmons and Ingram. That may very well change in the pre-draft workouts. Then there's a tier 2 of Bender, Hield, Murry, Dunn and maybe Brown. That WILL change in the pre-draft workouts. Someone may move up. Someone will move down. But there's clearly a pecking order that doesn't stretch out of the top 7.
5.
"There's no difference between choosing #3 and #6 in this draft"
Oh rly? So you'd just as well rather have the #6 pick?
Simply put, even if all things were equal - and they're not - being able to pick 3rd allows a team to pick the player who is the best fit who fills the biggest need. That was the biggest problem with the Marcus Smart pick a couple of years ago. I love the kid and I'm still very high on him long-term because I think he's going to be a star. I also think he was probably the BPA at the time. But in terms of need, he wasn't an ideal choice because the Cs already had enough guards.
At the very worst #3 allows you to pick for your system and your needs. That alone can make or break a player's career. Don't underestimate it.
6.
"The Celtics have too many picks and will get held over a barrel in trades"Come on. This is Danny we're talking about. Since when does he get held over a barrel in trades? No, the team can't use 8 picks. But the Cs are just one team. Those picks are assets that are going to be in demand by 29 other teams. He'll find willing trade partners in those teams. After all, until you get to the 2nd round ones in the mid-40s, the picks have an inherent value. Danny isn't going to be forced to just give them away because he can't use them. There's an established market for picks just like there is any other good. It may be he just trades picks for future picks but there's no worry that he's going to get fleeced in trade deals. After all, Danny is smart enough to know that helping another team in the NBA directly hurts your team. Thus he'd waste the picks before giving them away in a lopsided deal.
I'm looking forward to seeing how this all works out by June 23rd because no matter what this 48 win team is going to get better.
Topic: Misconceptions about the #3 pick and the 2016 draft (Read 6520 times)