Author Topic: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart  (Read 3470 times)

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Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« on: February 25, 2016, 03:20:25 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Just thought it'd be a good idea to pin this as a resource regarding the odds on our BKN pick.

Throw a TP foulweatherfan's way when you get a chance.  Thanks.










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Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #1 on: February 25, 2016, 03:28:52 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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TP. This deserves the pin.

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2016, 03:30:34 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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I also TP'd foulweatherfan

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2016, 03:34:49 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Thanks guys but I literally just Googled and copy-pasted.  And I'm 99% sure this chart's been on CB before.  No need for attribution or CB Fun Pointz.


The big takeaway is that we have an 82.8% chance of a top 5 pick if Brooklyn stays put.  If they catch Minnesota it drops to 55.2%.  If they can fall below Phoenix again it'll be 96%.  Every other scenario isn't very likely.

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2016, 03:35:53 PM »

Offline Timdawgg

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Awesome. Thanks for this. Interesting that the 4th seed is so unlikely to get for 4th pick.
"If I had to choose a player to take a shot to save a game I'd choose Michael Jordan; If I had to choose a player to take a shot to save my life...I'd take Larry Bird." - Pat Riley

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2016, 03:37:03 PM »

Offline manl_lui

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so for now, a guaranteed top 7. Chances at landing 4th and 7th pick are low. 5th and 6th pick are likely.

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2016, 03:38:27 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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Thanks guys but I literally just Googled and copy-pasted.  And I'm 99% sure this chart's been on CB before.  No need for attribution or CB Fun Pointz.


The big takeaway is that we have an 82.8% chance of a top 5 pick if Brooklyn stays put.  If they catch Minnesota it drops to 55.2%.  If they can fall below Phoenix again it'll be 96%.  Every other scenario isn't very likely.

Just bask in it, FWF.   ;)


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Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2016, 03:43:58 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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Thanks guys but I literally just Googled and copy-pasted.  And I'm 99% sure this chart's been on CB before.  No need for attribution or CB Fun Pointz.


The big takeaway is that we have an 82.8% chance of a top 5 pick if Brooklyn stays put.  If they catch Minnesota it drops to 55.2%.  If they can fall below Phoenix again it'll be 96%.  Every other scenario isn't very likely.

Just bask in it, FWF.   ;)

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2016, 04:24:14 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Just thought it'd be a good idea to pin this as a resource regarding the odds on our BKN pick.

Throw a TP foulweatherfan's way when you get a chance.  Thanks.








The table highlights why the Lakers have blatantly tanked this season.   If they fall from the 2nd slot to 3rd slot they go from having an above 50% chance of keeping their pick to having an above 50% chance of losing their pick. 

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #9 on: February 25, 2016, 04:47:44 PM »

Offline mgent

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Thanks guys but I literally just Googled and copy-pasted.  And I'm 99% sure this chart's been on CB before.  No need for attribution or CB Fun Pointz.


The big takeaway is that we have an 82.8% chance of a top 5 pick if Brooklyn stays put.  If they catch Minnesota it drops to 55.2%.  If they can fall below Phoenix again it'll be 96%.  Every other scenario isn't very likely.

Yup, hoping they fall below Phoenix.

And considering LA has 11 wins and BKN has 15, I don't think falling behind them is too crazy.
Philly:

Anderson Varejao    Tiago Splitter    Matt Bonner
David West    Kenyon Martin    Brad Miller
Andre Iguodala    Josh Childress    Marquis Daniels
Dwyane Wade    Leandro Barbosa
Kirk Hinrich    Toney Douglas   + the legendary Kevin McHale

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #10 on: February 25, 2016, 04:53:25 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Thanks guys but I literally just Googled and copy-pasted.  And I'm 99% sure this chart's been on CB before.  No need for attribution or CB Fun Pointz.


The big takeaway is that we have an 82.8% chance of a top 5 pick if Brooklyn stays put.  If they catch Minnesota it drops to 55.2%.  If they can fall below Phoenix again it'll be 96%.  Every other scenario isn't very likely.

Now let's just cross our fingers that a couple more prospects aside from Simmons, Ingram, and Dunn emerge as clear-cut top 5 caliber choices in this draft over the next couple months.
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Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #11 on: February 25, 2016, 05:16:12 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Thanks guys but I literally just Googled and copy-pasted.  And I'm 99% sure this chart's been on CB before.  No need for attribution or CB Fun Pointz.


The big takeaway is that we have an 82.8% chance of a top 5 pick if Brooklyn stays put.  If they catch Minnesota it drops to 55.2%.  If they can fall below Phoenix again it'll be 96%.  Every other scenario isn't very likely.

Now let's just cross our fingers that a couple more prospects aside from Simmons, Ingram, and Dunn emerge as clear-cut top 5 caliber choices in this draft over the next couple months.
It's hard to say clear top five. Who are the closest to top 5 IYO? I say Brown and Lab based on potential are top 5 worthy. Hield is outstanding and should be considered. Bender may be as well but have not seen anything from him. So those are the guys I'm looking at right now as possible top 5 along with the three you mentioned.
My Top 5
Trade targets.      Draft.                     FAs
1. Davis              1.Fultz              1. Griffin*
2. Cousins          2. Tatum          2. Hayward
3. Butler              3. Jackson       3. Millsap
4. George            4. Ball               4. Lowry
5. Favors             5. Isaac            5. Gali

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #12 on: February 28, 2016, 10:19:27 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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The fourth spot having the worst chances of picking fourth only go to show how likely it is for a team not in the bottom three finishing teams to end up with a top three pick. For that reason, I am very happy with ending up in the 4th or 5th position.

Re: Top 5 Pick Probabilities Chart
« Reply #13 on: April 09, 2016, 06:19:13 AM »

Offline greece666

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Just thought it'd be a good idea to pin this as a resource regarding the odds on our BKN pick.

Throw a TP foulweatherfan's way when you get a chance.  Thanks.








The table highlights why the Lakers have blatantly tanked this season.   If they fall from the 2nd slot to 3rd slot they go from having an above 50% chance of keeping their pick to having an above 50% chance of losing their pick.

This might be part of the reason why the NBA was getting so angry with Hinkie behind the scenes. Not only did he tank in a remorseless manner but he also gave incentives to other teams to do the same.

Moreover, the table shows why fans so often get disappointed with the ping pong ball results. Many expect that finishing 3rd or 5th would at least guarantee them the 3rd or 5th pick but this is hardly the case.