2016 draft pick tracker

[slamtheking]

picking up where I left off last year, offering a thread that tracks the multitude of C's picks this year.

Hope this is at least as useful as people found it last year.

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 1/4/16 -- will try to update weekly
Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #3 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Minnesota         +1.5                       12                 48                 3-7
Denver               +1                          12                47                 1-9
New Orleans      +1                          22                49                 5-5
Phoenix              even                    12                45                 1-9
Brooklyn            --                          10                49                 3-7
Lakers                -3                          8                  47                 4-6

--> Netx were pretty solidly in the 3rd slot until getting a few unexpected wins and Denver and Phx going belly up recently.  Still, Brooklyn only has 10 wins and are now missing Jarrett Jack. 


Boston Pick[/b] #18 due to 3 teams in the West in the playoffs with worse records

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Indiana            +1                        19                   49                 5-5
Dallas              +.5                       19                   48                 6-4
Orlando           +.5                        19                  48                 6-4
Boston          ---                          18                  49                  5-5
================Eastern Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Detroit              -.5                        18                   48                 5-5
Charlotte          -1                          17                  49                 3-7
Memphis          -1                          18                  47                 5-5

--> C's clinging to last spot in the Eastern Playoffs.  With the West having the worse teams this season, dropping out of the playoffs bumps this pick up 4 spots at a minimum.

Dallas Pick #20 -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Miami              +1.5                       20                   49                6-4
Toronto            +1.5                       21                   47                5-5
Atlanta             +1.5                       21                   47                7-3
Indiana            +.5                        19                   49                 5-5
Dallas              ---                       19                   48                 6-4
Orlando           even                      19                  48                 6-4
Boston             -.5                         18                  49                  5-5

--> still can't get over how well Dallas is doing and how poorly the West is doing in general. 

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #37
Memphis (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #45
Miami - #54
Cleveland - #58

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 1/11/16 -- will try to update weekly
Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #3 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Minnesota         +1.5                       12                 44                 1-9
New Orleans      +1.5                       11                46                 4-6
Brooklyn            --                          10                45                 3-7
Lakers                -3                          8                  43                 3-7

--> Phoenix and Denver got it together this past week so they've pulled far enough ahead to where I've removed them from the tracking for now.


Boston Pick[/b] #14 outside the Eastern playoffs.

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Indiana            +2                        21                   45                 5-5
Detroit              +2                       21                   45                 6-4
Orlando           +.5                       20                   44                 4-6
================Eastern Playoff Team Cut-off===============================
Boston          ---                          19                  45                  5-5
Knicks              -1                        19                   43                 5-5
Charlotte          -2                        17                   45                 2-8

--> C's out of the playoffs as of today putting them at the tail end of the lottery.  will only include Eastern teams for now when C's are out of playoffs since the Western teams outside the playoffs are well behind them in the standings.

Dallas Pick #21 -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Chicago           +1.5                       22                   47               7-3
Toronto            +1.5                       24                   43                7-3
Atlanta             +1                          23                   44                7-3
Miami              +.5                         22                    45                6-4
Toronto            +1.5                       21                   47                5-5
Dallas              ---                       22                   44                 7-3
Indiana             -.5                          21                   45                 5-5
Detroit              -.5                          21                   45                 6-4
Memphis          -1.5                        21                   43                 6-4
Orlando            -2                           20                   44                 4-6

--> still can't get over how well Dallas is doing and how poorly the West is doing in general.  Dallas deep into the mix with the Eastern teams for pick positioning

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #35
Memphis (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #48
Miami - #52
Cleveland - #58

[TheSundanceKid]

TP, really enjoyed this last year. Looks like we're going to yo-yo around the 8th seed for a while. Can't believe how well Dallas is doing, at this point its fairly certain they will make the playoffs, just got to hope they only make the 7th or 8th seed.

[chambers]

Thanks for the update.
I was looking at the standings and I'm shocked that we are a lottery team at this moment.
Only half way through the season but it's disappointing considering how well we were playing early on.

TP

[slamtheking]

thanks - appreciate the commentary. 

personally, I thought C's would be fighting for that last spot in the east and Dallas would be around the 8-10 pick this year.  Surprised the East is up and the West is down this year.

[trickybilly]

Nearly a perfect day for our draft picks (if you want to dream that the Minny pick will convey..)

LA Houston on now though - not sure who we want to win that, but probably LA..

[konkmv]

At the end we get a top 3 and 2 15-20 range picks...not bad even though i thought at first that the mavs pick would be at 10-15 range...obviously we will keep the firat pick and try to move up with the others... do not forget sixers and minny picks they have more value than we think.. we could get 2 mickeys from them...... not bad trade assets

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 1/19/16 -- will try to update weekly
Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #3 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
New Orleans      +3                        13                42                 3-7
Phoenix             +2                        13                40                 1-9
Minnesota         +2                        13                40                 1-9               
Brooklyn           --                        11                40                 2-8
Lakers              -2.5                         9                  39                 3-7

--> Nets have some cushion for 3rd worst which was getting close the past week.  Would still like to see the Lakers catch them as well as NO, Phx and Minny pick up a few more wins soon.  No reason for NO and Minny to be this bad.  Phx looks like it just threw in the towel unfortunately.

Boston Pick #17 due to 2 teams in the West in the playoffs with worse records

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Miami              +1.5                      23                  41                 5-5
Memphis         +1.5                      24                  39                 7-3
Dallas              +1.5                      24                  39                 5-5
Indiana            +.5                        22                  41                 4-6
Detroit              +.5                        22                  41                 5-5
Boston          ---                          22                  40                  4-6
================Eastern Playoff Team Cutoff==========================
Houston            -.5                        22                  39                 6-4
Orlando             -1                         20                  42                 3-7
NY                     -1.5                      21                 39                  6-4
Washington        -2                         19                  42                 5-5

--> C's clinging to last spot in the Eastern Playoffs.  getting very bunched up around them in the standings.  a win or loss make a real swing in the standings.

Dallas Pick #20 (tie with Memphis) -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Atlanta             +1.5                       25                  40                5-5
Miami              even                      23                  41                 5-5
Memphis         even                      24                  39                 7-3
Dallas              ---                       24                  39                 5-5
Indiana             -1                         22                  41                 4-6
Detroit               -1                         22                  41                 5-5
Boston             - .5                        22                  40                  4-6
Houston            -2                         22                  39                 6-4
-->If the C's had taken care of business in Dallas last night, the Dallas pick would be 3 spots better this morning behind Indy, Detroit and the C's.  Memphis has finally caught Dallas in the standings and Houston isn't far behind.  hoping the worst case is that if Dallas does manage to make the playoffs, it's as the 8th seed in the West.  beginning to doubt anyone that's still behind them other than Houston will ever knock them out

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #34 (tied with Phx)
Memphis (better of Dallas or Memphis both tied) - #50
Miami - #52
Cleveland - #58


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)

[mef730]

Can't believe I missed the rebirth of this thread! TP.

Mike

[slamtheking]

welcome back Mef - wondered where you've been.  TP for your return

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 1/25/16 -- will try to update weekly

Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #3 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Phoenix             2                         14                 37                 2-8
Minnesota         +2                        14                37                 2-8               
Brooklyn           --                        12                37                 2-8
Lakers              -3.5                         9                  36                 1-9

--> Nets have some cushion for 3rd worst which was getting close the past week.  NO pulled ahead a bit so I dropped them from the comparison list.  if OKC had beaten them as they should have, 3rd worst would really be solid right now.

Boston Pick #20

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Chicago           +2                        25                   39                 4-6
Atlanta             +2                        26                   37                 5-5
Memphis         +1                         25                   37                 7-3
Dallas              +.5                       25                   36                 4-6
Boston          ---                          24                  37                  5-5
Indiana            -.5                        23                    38                 4-6
Detroit             -.5                        23                    38                 5-5
Miami              -.5                        23                    38                 2-8
================Eastern Playoff Team Cutoff==========================
Houston            -.5                       24                   36                 7-3
Washington       -2                        20                   41                 5-5

--> C's really jumped in the standings by just playing .500 ball lately.  getting very bunched up around them in the standings.  a win or loss make a real swing in the standings.

Dallas Pick #21 -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Chicago           +1.5                      25                   39                 4-6
Atlanta             +1.5                      26                   37                 5-5
Memphis          +.5                        25                   37                 7-3
Dallas              ---                      25                   36                 4-6
Boston              -.5                       24                    37                  5-5
Indiana             -1                         23                    38                 4-6
Detroit               -1                         23                    38                 5-5
Miami                -1                         23                    38                 2-8
Houston             -1                        24                    36                  7-3

-->Memphis has finally passed Dallas so that's a good sign.  Houston has gained some real ground and it looks like the reacquisition of Josh Smith with expedite their climb in the standings.  Sac looks to have gotten their act together recently so I'm hoping they continue their climb and they'll be a team I can add to the standings comparison for Dallas next week-->3.5 back from Dallas so not quite making the cut this week.

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #34 (tied with Phx)
Miami - #47
Memphis (better of Dallas or Memphis both tied) - #51
Cleveland - #57


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)

[slamtheking]

link to last year's draft pick tracker
http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=75437.0

Standings as of 2/1/16 -- will try to update weekly

Nets pick -- unprotected  -- #3 currently
              Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Phoenix             +1.5                    14                 33                 1-9
Minnesota         +1.5                    14                  33                 2-8               
Brooklyn           --                        12                34                 2-8
Lakers               -4                          9                  32                 0-10

--> Nets are getting further ahead of the Lakers so it seems a drop to #2 is unlikely.  Nets still 2 games behind Minny and Phx in the very important Win column

Boston Pick #19  (tie with Atlanta)

            Games Behind    Current Wins     Games Left    Last 10
Memphis         +1.5                     28                   34                 8-2
Chicago           +.5                      26                    36                 4-6
Miami              +.5                       27                    34                 5-5
Dallas              +.5                       28                   32                 6-4
Atlanta             even                    27                   33                 4-6
Boston          ---                          27                  33                  7-3
Indiana            -1                         25                    35                 4-6
Detroit             -1.5                       25                    34                4-6
================Eastern Playoff Team Cutoff==========================
Houston           -2.5                       25                   32                 4-6

--> C's really jumped in the standings by having a good 10 game stretch while everyone around them in the standings was treading water at best.  oddly enough, their pick improved by one slot.

Dallas Pick #21 -- protected if in top 7
                Games Behind    Current Wins   Games Left   Last 10
Memphis         +1                       28                     34                 8-2
Chicago           even                   26                     36                 4-6
Miami              even                    27                     34                 5-5
Dallas               ---                       28                    32                 6-4
Atlanta             -.5                       27                     33                 4-6
Boston             -.5                       27                     33                 7-3
Indiana             -1.5                     25                     35                 4-6
Detroit              -2                        25                     34                 4-6

-->Memphis pulling ahead of Dallas so that's a good trend.  too much volatility in the East for those playoff teams to climb over Dallas and push their pick further down.  Unfortunately, other teams in the West are falling behind so it's not looking promising that Dallas will be caught and pushed out of the playoffs barring some unforeseen significant injuries

Second Rounders:
Philly - #31
Minnesota (if 1st isn't conveyed) - #34 (tied with Phx)
Dallas (better of Dallas or Memphis) - #51
Miami - #52
Cleveland - #57


2016
first rounders
Boston
Brooklyn
Dallas (protected 1-7)
Minnesota (protected 1-12)

Second rounders
Cleveland
Philly
Miami
Best of Dallas/Memphis
Minnesota (if 1st not conveyed)

[mef730]

TP, thanks for the update.

February/early-March looks tough for us (i.e., easy for Brooklyn). Between Feb 5 and March 15, there are 17 games and they play Philly three times, Denver twice, Sacramento, Phoenix, Minnesota and the Lakers. Even their "harder" games aren't bad: Memphis, NYK, Charlotte, Portland, Utah, Clippers, Toronto and Milwaukee.

During that same period, Phoenix has an absolutely brutal schedule. 16 games, including Golden State twice, OKC, Houston and San Antonio (3/8-3/21 are all home games, but consist of OKC, GS, Houston and San Antonio. The night after that San Antonio game, they are at the Clippers). They also play Utah, BKN, Memphis (twice), Charlotte, Orlando, NYK before getting Denver on the 10th and Minnesota on the 14th.

Did I cherry pick those dates? Absolutely. Phoenix has an easy schedule starting on 3/17 and BKN has what I would consider a moderate schedule. BKN does have Cleveland twice before the end of the season (starting 3/17), but their only game vs. Toronto is the last one of the season (who knows who will be resting) and only one each against Chicago and Miami. As of March 5, they are done with the Western Conference. And while I understand that the East may be the more competitive conference, the West clearly has the best teams at the top, with GS, SA and OKC, versus Cleveland (and maybe Toronto) in the East. In other words, Brooklyn is through the hardest part of its schedule.

With the understanding that Brooklyn seems to lose games that it should win and win games that it should lose, I don't see how they stay ahead of Phoenix.

Mike

[slamtheking]

nice forward-projection effort.

I'm still very confident the pick will be top 5 after the lottery (not to mention before the lottery)

[trickybilly]

Nice Analysis Mike. They really have had an unlucky year so far against very good teams. Sorry to say, but we still need one more injury.