If we don't make the 2016 playoffs, should we think about going even younger?

[ahonui06]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

I don't see it. Frankly, I think it's more likely that they go full tank and get a top 7 pick than make the playoffs.

Williams: shell of his former self, but possibly a candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery

Mathews: Achilles rupture is an absolute killer and I have no confidence that he'll be the player he once was

Parsons: good player coming off of knee surgery, but will not carry the team, even if he's fully healthy and GREAT

Dirk: not the player he once was, detrimental on defense, greatly declined on offense

Pachulia: decent player, but nothing special

Basically DIRK is just too good for Dallas to be a Top 7 team. Cuban will try his hardest to keep the team afloat the last few years of DIRK's regime. Deron basically has an expiring contract so that's why I think he will have a lot to prove.

Alright. We're just going to have to agree to disagree here; we have fundamentally different opinions on the talent level in Dallas, TP.

I'm a huge DIRK fan, but I really hope you are right because I want Boston to get another top pick in the draft.

I think the Nets pick will definitely be Top 10 worthy.

[slamtheking]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

I don't see it. Frankly, I think it's more likely that they go full tank and get a top 7 pick than make the playoffs.

Williams: shell of his former self, but possibly a candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery

Mathews: Achilles rupture is an absolute killer and I have no confidence that he'll be the player he once was

Parsons: good player coming off of knee surgery, but will not carry the team, even if he's fully healthy and GREAT

Dirk: not the player he once was, detrimental on defense, greatly declined on offense

Pachulia: decent player, but nothing special

Basically DIRK is just too good for Dallas to be a Top 7 team. Cuban will try his hardest to keep the team afloat the last few years of DIRK's regime. Deron basically has an expiring contract so that's why I think he will have a lot to prove.

that's what we thought about Rondo too but that didn't exactly go as expected.

[Big333223]

Regardless of whether the Celtics make the playoffs this season, the plan stays the same: Retain flexibility and if a star becomes available in the trade market, and try to make the most of the draft picks they have. Making or missing the playoffs doesn't really change that.

More important is how Danny is going to play this season. He needs to aleve the roser crunch and, if possible, find a way to turn some of the picks we'll be getting into a singular, higher pick. Doing that kind of deal on draft day, after teams have already fallen in love with their respective picks, is harder and we found that out this season. He has to figure out a way to turn 3 decent picks into 1 great one.

[Casperian]

In other words, we look like team that doesn't know where it's going, and is just *hoping* to dear god that we can trade for, or sign, multiple top 20 NBA players to take us to the next level.

That is not what we're doing, though. We're not "hoping to dear God" that we can acquire a top player, we are preparing for it. It is inevitable that a star player becomes available, and we have to be in a position to strike when the time comes.

No, we are preparing for it and hoping to dear god that other teams don't have better assets to offer at the time...say...an Okafur or a Nerlens Noel...or a Khris Middleton or Giannis...or a Russell for Cousins etc...

A bit of luck is always necessary, whether you want to build through the draft, trades or FA. It's even necessary if your team is good and you're competing for a championship. However, you can't prepare as well for the lottery as you can for the other two options.

If you want to complain about the fact that we need a bit of luck, you might as well shout at the clouds when it rains.

[greece66]

Ok don't freak out.
Let's say our team finishes 9th or 10th in the East this season. It's unlikely, but it's possible. Say we get an injury to Isaiah or Marcus goes down like Exum for the year and we end up just missing out on the post season.

We then strike out on free agents again and there are no realistic free agent/disgruntled star options for us, with no 'Kevin Love' visits to Boston from anyone significant and nothing imminently pending like Cousins leaving Sacramento etc...
In other words, we look like team that doesn't know where it's going, and is just *hoping* to dear god that we can trade for, or sign, multiple top 20 NBA players to take us to the next level.

Would you be okay if we cleared the books of 95% of our 'veterans' over the age of 24/25?

I mean;
-Trade Bradley for a first round pick
-trade Thomas for a first round pick or young player/upside young guy.
-Trade one of Sully/Olynyk (whichever one like least) or trade both of them for a 1st rounder.
-Trade Zeller for whatever.
-End Amir Johnson's contract and send Evan Turner and David Lee to the glue factory and thank them for their time.

This is what I stated in the Bob Cousy topic, and I think it's important;this may be an option that Ainge has as a 'Plan C' if we strike out on acquiring some stars.

I do worry about being stuck in no man's land and basically relying on:

*trying to get one of our mid first round picks to become much better than their draft position.
*hoping that we can sign multiple top 20 NBA players and it basically never happening.


With our current roster, Ainge can move contracts like Amir Johnson and Jerebko around easily if the salary is needed. But looking at our roster/contracts he could also just as easily hit the reset button after 2016 if he wants to do a proper 'blow up' and let Stevens start with guys he wants to develop. The only guys we have past 2016 over the age of 24 are Bradley, Crowder, Mickey and Thomas.

If we looked pretty average this year and ended up missing the playoffs, I wouldn't be too unhappy if we just cleared the books of all our veteran players and put out a team of:

Rozier
Smart
Hunter
Crowder
Mickey

+ our Brooklyn pick rookies and our own rookies filling in the gaps.

Let Stevens coach them up and let Smart lead them and ignite that Celtic fire. We'd lose, but we'd be competitive within a few years and if were lucky and picked well, we could land one or two future top 20 NBA players.
Similarly to what Seattle/OKC did over a 4-5 year stretch. Try and create our own luck in another way (via the draft/development strategy, without the bargain veteran contracts thrown in that Ainge just has to have, but unfortunately take away time from younger players).

This is also more plausible when you think about the NBA over the next 5 seasons and how hard it is to win a championship.
You've got Lebron and Cleveland in the East for another 4-5 years, and the Wizards, Bucks, Bulls, Pistons all getting better.
You've got the toughest Western Conference we've ever seen and 3 or 4 teams that could win championships in plenty of other NBA seasons.

So for the next 5 years while we try and sign multiple stars and cross our fingers, if we do actually get lucky enough to sign one or two- they then have to lead us past Lebron/Cleveland and then whoever is good enough to come out of the West.

I mean if Brooklyn was bad enough, we could even get 3 or 4 top 10 picks or better in a two year period. How great would that be to add a cache of young hand picked draft studs to Marcus Smart, Rozier, Hunter and Young? I mean Evan Turner and Isaiah have been great Celtics, but I'd love to draft an Okafur or Towns, or Anthony Davis. You can say 'but you have to get lucky', 'they're not proven NBA players' etc...but the fact is that it requires just as much luck to land a top 10-20 NBA player via free agency/trade anyway.

Letting Brad coach and mold those guys and when Lebron, Kyrie, Love, Griffin, Curry, Aldridge/Leonard all start to decline, our guys will be just reaching their peaks.

I could definitely see that route being a back up plan for Ainge if we don't see 'Fireworks' by summer 2016. I guess it depends a lot on what the ownership group expect (they could be $$$ focused after a few poor seasons). It also depends on if Brad Stevens would be okay going for a 'reset' with him and Smart/Rozier/Hunter/Crowder at the helm.

Anyone else think Ainge has got this as a legitimate option?
Would Stevens be down with this?

I think it is really unlikely because of our depth. We'll need two-three injuries at the same position (say IT, Bradley and Smart all get injured - this is really unlikely). If say Kelly and Bradley got injured, we ll still be fine (we did have plenty of injuries last year too like every other team).

If disaster happened, I would definitely get rid of Amir + DLee for future assets, flexibility and all that jazz.

But I wouldn't trade anyone else unless the offer is really good.

Btw, I doubt you can get a top -10 draft pick for Bradley and if you get say a pick in the 10s, you' ll (hopefully) end up with a player as good as Bradley. Same applies to IT. The only attraction is the low cost of rookie contracts, but there is always the risk with rookies that they turn out to be busts + they take time to reach their potential.

So, it's a half yes.

[beantownboy171]

I think this is a pretty fair and constructive question to ask. It's a hypothetical. I think their going to make the playoffs, and i suspect they've got a real chance to take the division. But if they don't there will be several players we'll be looking to get rid of.

If we miss the playoffs players like Johnson, Turner, Jerebko and Sullinger will probably be out the door. We'll also have probably 2 lottery picks in that scenario, maybe even 3 if things go our way.

Regardless of the outcome of this season we'll most likely go younger by adding our 3 first rounder. But we'll be much more likely to keep our picks and shed some of our veterans if we miss the playoffs.

Hopefully we won't have to deal with this scenario though. Its in our best interest to continue as a team on the upswing.

[TheFlex]

No. The Brooklyn picks solve this issue.

Edit: of course by going younger I assume you mean tanking in 2017.

[greece66]

No. The Brooklyn picks solve this issue.

Edit: of course by going younger I assume you mean tanking in 2017.

I'm pretty sure he means 2015-16.

[TheFlex]

No. The Brooklyn picks solve this issue.

Edit: of course by going younger I assume you mean tanking in 2017.

I'm pretty sure he means 2015-16.

It seems to me that he's pondering the direction of the team after this season, which would bring us to the 2017 season.

[MSceltic]

We're making the playoffs

[chambers]

Too many variables to say. It greatly depends upon why we miss the playoffs, where the Brooklyn and Dallas picks end up, etc.

well let's ignore the Brooklyn/Dallas picks.
Let's just say we finish 9th in the East and the only disgruntled star option remains in Sacramento. Do we just keep our team of role players while trying to draft top 5 talent with picks between 15-20 for the next few years?

What's our plan for the post Lebron/Durant/Clippers/Warriors era?

can't ignore those picks. 

personally, I think the C's will miss the playoffs this year -- 9th or 10th in the East is where I think they'll end up.  They're better than last year but so are a number of other teams in the East.

C's will end up with 3 picks next year - I think they'll all be lottery picks to boot.

I think Lee and Turner are gone after this season if not traded at the deadline.  Jerebko will likely not have his contract picked up for next year either.  Depending on how Amir fits in this season, I could see him cut loose as well --> whole point of signing him to a very overpriced contract is that he suspects that second year won't be picked up.

no desire to see this team get younger for the sake of getting younger.  I want to see them get better.  If that involves relying on picks to do so, whether for trade or keeping, that's fine.  I think the reliance on the draft as the primary way to add talent will end up coming up short in achieving the goal of becoming a contender

Just wondering, where do you see the picks ending up? If we go by last year's standings and draft order, then the 10th and 11th seeds in the East got the 10th and 9th picks respectively. Say the Nets and Celtics finished 10th and 11th and the Mavs are the 11th seed in the West. That would give us the 9th, 10th, and 12th picks. That would be a massive infusion of talent, and those are fairly conservative estimates for how bad the Nets and Mavs could be IMO.

My best guess on where those picks will end up (putting aside what my hopes are for those picks) are:
- Nets - top 5 pick
- Dallas - 8-9
- Celtics - 11-12
I think we just miss out on the Minny pick with them coming in 10-11.

I think the Nets will implode this season and we'll reap the rewards of it.  Dallas will miss the playoffs in the West without question but there will be at least 7 teams worse than them--mostly in the East.  C's, while having a better team to start the year than last year, did not catch any of the teams that had a better record than them in the East last year and I believe at least Miami will pass them.  I think they'll be fighting with Indy (and probably Detroit and a surprising Charlotte team--no thanks to Frank Kaminsky) for that 8th seed and come up just short.  There will be 2-3 teams in the West that miss the playoffs that have a better record than the C's thus pushing them down to 11 or 12.

for the record, I'd like to see the C's in the playoffs again next year, I just don't think it'll happen.  Before acquiring Lee, I was sure it wouldn't happen.  Now, I think they have a fighting chance with a decent second scoring option to put on the floor with IT at the end.  The D won't be that good but they should be better at putting points on the board in the 4th.

Thanks, TP. I agree with you on the Nets, but think the C's and Mavs will be slightly better, something like this:

Nets: 4-6
Mavs: 8-12
Celtics: 16-18

I'm just hoping the Nets pick jumps up to #3; I really want Jaylen Brown.

Dallas is definitely going to find a way to make the playoffs in the West. Even at 37, DIRK is still a beast and they have a bunch of players trying to prove themselves this season (Deron, Wes Matthews and Parsons) and a lot of frontcourt depth to get them through the season (Zaza, Dalembert, and other undrafted FAs).

I don't see it. Frankly, I think it's more likely that they go full tank and get a top 7 pick than make the playoffs.

Williams: shell of his former self, but possibly a candidate to bounce back with a change of scenery

Mathews: Achilles rupture is an absolute killer and I have no confidence that he'll be the player he once was

Parsons: good player coming off of knee surgery, but will not carry the team, even if he's fully healthy and GREAT

Dirk: not the player he once was, detrimental on defense, greatly declined on offense

Pachulia: decent player, but nothing special

agreed - they're more likely to try to get worse to keep their pick this year than to come close to making the playoffs.
Dallas will finish behind everyone who made the playoffs last year except Portland as well as OKC who missed without Durant and probably Utah who made some real strides last year.  Probably wind up behind Phx and quite possibly Minny as well.  Maybe even Sacramento.  I also wouldn't be completely shocked if Kobe came back and pushed the Lakers past Dallas as well. 

Pencil in Dallas finishing ahead of these teams overall:
Philly, Lakers, Knicks, Denver, Orlando, Portland and Brooklyn--7 teams right there.  Hard to see Dallas finishing worse than any of them --> translation, hello first round pick.  Minny may also finish worse than Dallas but personally, I don't think so. 
For that matter, they could also finish better than Charlotte and/or Indy (depending on Paul George) but since those teams are in the East and have a theoretically easier schedule, those teams should have a few more wins in the end (IMO).

I agree, they are in no man's land. I don't know about the lakers besting them but I think a squad of
Deron
Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

Is too good to be a bottom 7 team and not good enough in the West to be a playoff  team.
Cuban is never tanking with this squad.

That  Dallas pick is basically a sure thing so we should start thinking about mock drafts and players between 7 to 14..woo hoo!

[Big333223]

I agree, they are in no man's land. I don't know about the lakers besting them but I think a squad of
Deron
Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

Is too good to be a bottom 7 team and not good enough in the West to be a playoff  team.
Cuban is never tanking with this squad.

That  Dallas pick is basically a sure thing so we should start thinking about mock drafts and players between 7 to 14..woo hoo!

Same. It seems like a nice lineup on paper, but Matthews is the only plus defender in that lineup and he's coming off surgery. Dirk and Deron can't defend anymore, Pachulia and Parsons are fine. It's not a terrible lineup but in the West it just isn't going to be enough to get the job done. Our best case scenario is that Cuban and Carlisle think that it is enough and they stay in the hunt long enough that by the time they realize they're out of it, it's too late to get a pick below 8.

[ahonui06]

I agree, they are in no man's land. I don't know about the lakers besting them but I think a squad of
Deron
Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

Is too good to be a bottom 7 team and not good enough in the West to be a playoff  team.
Cuban is never tanking with this squad.

That  Dallas pick is basically a sure thing so we should start thinking about mock drafts and players between 7 to 14..woo hoo!

Same. It seems like a nice lineup on paper, but Matthews is the only plus defender in that lineup and he's coming off surgery. Dirk and Deron can't defend anymore, Pachulia and Parsons are fine. It's not a terrible lineup but in the West it just isn't going to be enough to get the job done. Our best case scenario is that Cuban and Carlisle think that it is enough and they stay in the hunt long enough that by the time they realize they're out of it, it's too late to get a pick below 8.

I'm a huge DIRK fan and although I don't always agree with Carlisle's lineups he seems to excel with teams that have low expectations. He will find a way to remain competitive out West with Devin Harris, JJ Barea, Samuel Dalembert, Charlie Villanueva, Dwight Powell and rookie Justin Anderson off the bench.

[Big333223]

I agree, they are in no man's land. I don't know about the lakers besting them but I think a squad of
Deron
Mathews
Parsons
Dirk
Pachulia

Is too good to be a bottom 7 team and not good enough in the West to be a playoff  team.
Cuban is never tanking with this squad.

That  Dallas pick is basically a sure thing so we should start thinking about mock drafts and players between 7 to 14..woo hoo!

Same. It seems like a nice lineup on paper, but Matthews is the only plus defender in that lineup and he's coming off surgery. Dirk and Deron can't defend anymore, Pachulia and Parsons are fine. It's not a terrible lineup but in the West it just isn't going to be enough to get the job done. Our best case scenario is that Cuban and Carlisle think that it is enough and they stay in the hunt long enough that by the time they realize they're out of it, it's too late to get a pick below 8.

I'm a huge DIRK fan and although I don't always agree with Carlisle's lineups he seems to excel with teams that have low expectations. He will find a way to remain competitive out West with Devin Harris, JJ Barea, Samuel Dalembert, Charlie Villanueva, Dwight Powell and rookie Justin Anderson off the bench.

Hopefully he keeps them competetive for the 8th seed for a while. I think that would be a pretty good accomplishment.

[Donoghus]

No.  This team already bottomed out.  They're not doing it again in the near future.