Author Topic: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.  (Read 4643 times)

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Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« on: February 01, 2013, 04:46:57 PM »

Offline tonyto3690

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Rondo last season ... +196 (second best on team)
Rondo this season ... -56 (second worst on team)

And for what it's worth...

Bass this season ... -125


Who knows why this is.  Maybe it's just the lack of floor spacing Ray gave and the instantaneous anywhere, anytime spot up shooting Ray also gave that Lee, Terry and Bradley obviously lack.  Maybe the load is just far too heavy on him and effecting his *ahem* defensive intensity.

Rondo has been mediocre this season, we all know it.  But I'd like to point out as garbage as he's been for us this season, it's an anomaly, not the norm.  He's played way better for us in the past and in the post season is obviously no comparison.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2013, 04:55:01 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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And Rondo has played most of those minutes with Bass. Who's at "fault" for it? Its hard to tell without doing a heck of a lot more analysis.

Which is why +/- in its raw form isn't very useful. It's very noisy and subject to wide swings even when a player's overall quality of play hasn't changed but his team's or teammates have.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2013, 04:56:49 PM »

Offline CelticConcourse

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**affect

Don't worry about it,everyone has off seasons.
Jeff Green - Top 5 SF

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"I've always said J. Green is going to be one of the best players to ever play this game"

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2013, 05:27:08 PM »

Offline tonyto3690

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And Rondo has played most of those minutes with Bass. Who's at "fault" for it? Its hard to tell without doing a heck of a lot more analysis.

Which is why +/- in its raw form isn't very useful. It's very noisy and subject to wide swings even when a player's overall quality of play hasn't changed but his team's or teammates have.
Bass is -79 as a starter
Bass is -46 as a bench player

While I agree, +/- is a foolish way to use as a black and white  evaluation tool, it's unquestionably a good indicator as long as the team isn't filled with junk around them.

It's not a coincidence that KG is always at the top of the +/- for our team.
It's not a coincidence Rondo was second in +/- last year
It's not a coincidence Pierce is consistently top 3 in +/- for us.

Again, we're not talking about a small drop.  We're talking about a massive disaprity.  We're talking a triple digit positive number dropping to a double digit negative number.  His +/- has dropped over TWO HUNDRED AND FIFTY POINTS.

That is completely absurd and completely inexcusable.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2013, 01:14:00 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I do think Rondo's defense slipped substantially this year. His opponent PER has gone from 10 to 15. With him on the floor the Celts allow 104 points per 100 possessions this year, compared to 100 last year.

But, it's also true that his net plus/minus benefited last year from the fact that his backups were Dooling, Moore and Bradley (who struggled early in the year).

This year our bench guard rotation is quite a bit stronger.

I think it's a combination of both.

Aside from the data, I definitely felt like something indefinable was missing from Rondo's game this year. He looked good individually, but I never got the sense that he was making the players around him that much better. In years past I thought he was doing that.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2013, 01:21:52 PM »

Offline crimson_stallion

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This doesnt surprise me.

I've been saying all year that his play has gone downhill this season, and it seems to coincide with an attitude change once it was declared "this is Rondo's team" by Pierce.  It really looks to me that this has gone to his head, and hos play has suffered as a result.

Last year I loved his play, though all his big-stat games were pure effort and a result of hos desire to win, whereas this year I feel it's become all about him getting his numbers and proving he's the "top PG in the league" rather than simply wanting to win.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2013, 02:02:18 PM »

Offline wahz

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I don't think its impossible that Rajon was running around with a partially torn acl all season. It would explain a lot.
Nevertheless I have personally seen enough over the years that I would hold by breath and trade him for as solid a big as I can get. I realize he will then drop a 23-15-10 on us every time we see him. Well, with Bradley around maybe it will only be a 18-13-8 :o

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2013, 02:16:51 PM »

Online BballTim

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Rondo last season ... +196 (second best on team)
Rondo this season ... -56 (second worst on team)

And for what it's worth...

Bass this season ... -125


Who knows why this is.  Maybe it's just the lack of floor spacing Ray gave and the instantaneous anywhere, anytime spot up shooting Ray also gave that Lee, Terry and Bradley obviously lack.  Maybe the load is just far too heavy on him and effecting his *ahem* defensive intensity.

Rondo has been mediocre this season, we all know it.  But I'd like to point out as garbage as he's been for us this season, it's an anomaly, not the norm.  He's played way better for us in the past and in the post season is obviously no comparison.

  +/- is a pretty noisy stat. Consider that almost half of the -56 came from the Kings game when he shouldn't have been on the court because of his bruised hip.

  Also, consider our normal substitution patterns. KG starts a half, goes out after 5 minutes, comes in near the quarter break, goes out 3-4 minutes into the 2nd quarter and comes in late in the quarter. Rondo plays most of the first, leaves near the end of the quarter (around the time KG comes back in), comes back in with 6-7 minutes left in the quarter (right after KG comes out) and plays out the half. Rondo's on the court most of the time KG's on the bench and for much of the season we've had seriously poor play from the front court without KG.

  Couple that with the games Rondo's played when he wasn't healthy and the generally inconsistent play of the team and you'll see that it's probably much less reflective of Rondo's play than you'd imagine (or many have claimed).

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2013, 02:44:38 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Up to the point where Rondo got injured, he was not having his best year.



It happens. 


It doesn't mean it is a trend. 


Running the Clippers with Redz.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2013, 02:54:31 PM »

Online BballTim

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I do think Rondo's defense slipped substantially this year. His opponent PER has gone from 10 to 15. With him on the floor the Celts allow 104 points per 100 possessions this year, compared to 100 last year.

 Opponent PER is pretty tricky this year because he's spent so much of the year covering shooting guards. His synergy numbers are up a little lately but still not too much worse than last year (like .77 ppp compared to .75 or .74 ppp).

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2013, 03:36:33 PM »

Online LarBrd33

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Up to the point where Rondo got injured, he was not having his best year.



It happens. 


It doesn't mean it is a trend.
Actually, I think statistically he WAS having his best year, wasn't he? 

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2013, 03:39:57 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Up to the point where Rondo got injured, he was not having his best year.



It happens. 


It doesn't mean it is a trend.
Actually, I think statistically he WAS having his best year, wasn't he?

He shot better.


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


He was foul rate was up.  And other teams PGs were having better luck this season. 


Running the Clippers with Redz.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2013, 03:43:44 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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I do think Rondo's defense slipped substantially this year. His opponent PER has gone from 10 to 15. With him on the floor the Celts allow 104 points per 100 possessions this year, compared to 100 last year.

 Opponent PER is pretty tricky this year because he's spent so much of the year covering shooting guards. His synergy numbers are up a little lately but still not too much worse than last year (like .77 ppp compared to .75 or .74 ppp).

Just curious, where did you get the Synergy numbers?


Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2013, 03:45:27 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Up to the point where Rondo got injured, he was not having his best year.



It happens. 


It doesn't mean it is a trend.
Actually, I think statistically he WAS having his best year, wasn't he?

He shot better.


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


He was foul rate was up.  And other teams PGs were having better luck this season.
Yeah, overall though his improved shooting probably made up for the first two aspects.

The drop off in his defense was more problematic.

Opposing PG production hard to disentangle that from Terry being in the starting line up. Terry would go on the weakest offensive threat the other team had (if they had a Bogans type), or the PG if none really fit the bill.

Re: Mindblowing Rondo statistic.
« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2013, 07:10:03 PM »

Online BudweiserCeltic

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Up to the point where Rondo got injured, he was not having his best year.



It happens. 


It doesn't mean it is a trend.
Actually, I think statistically he WAS having his best year, wasn't he?

He shot better.


But his assist to TO ratio was worse. 


He was foul rate was up.  And other teams PGs were having better luck this season.
Yeah, overall though his improved shooting probably made up for the first two aspects.

The drop off in his defense was more problematic.

Opposing PG production hard to disentangle that from Terry being in the starting line up. Terry would go on the weakest offensive threat the other team had (if they had a Bogans type), or the PG if none really fit the bill.

Not true. For example, Terry was the player guarding Monta Ellis.

We usually didn't do any cross matching, Terry stayed with SGs and Rondo with PGs, when logic should've dictated the should've switched assignments most of the time.

 

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