Portland TrailblazersGM: IndeedProced, Coach: Alvin Gentry
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Basic Player Draft Info
Drafting Strategy
Pick 1: I had quite the dilemma at 1(10). A top 10 pick is fine and all, and I'm not complaining, but in my order of preference it was: CP3, Wade, Kobe, Deron Williams, then failing that, I was going to make a last minute decision between Amar'e and Blake Griffin.
Well, it failed, and I went Amar'e. He'd been the leading scorer on a conference finals team. He'd pretty much singlehandedly led a team without much talent around him to the playoffs, and I've maintained since Amar'e got a consistent mid-range shot and showed he was more than the 'man-child' he was called before the injury that Amar'e was the best scoring frontcourt player in basketball.
Pick 2: Amar'e Stoudemire might be the best scoring frontcourt player in basketball, but he's got his problems. He's historically not a great rebounder. He's historically a pretty inconsistent defender.
So, I went on ahead and addressed that with the second best center in basketball. In fact, it cost me a 4th rounder, but I wouldn't take it back if I could (my trading partner Gainesville, has said his biggest regret is trading back).
Bogut isn't the pure physical force that Dwight Howard is, and Dwight is still without a doubt the best pivot man playing since Shaq, but don't kid yourself, Bogut has game. He's one of the best passing centers in basketball. He's one of the better rebounding centers, while not creative, he's a consistent scorer who plays within his means as long as he isn't leaned upon too much in that role. And, although he's huge, white, and foreign, he's one of the more athletic 7ft 260+ guys out there.
But that is not where his true talent lies. He doesn't possess Howard's raw physical skils, but for my money he's a more skilled and smarter defender. He's a good pick and roll defender, a great man-on defender, and a great team defender. If you were going to ask for any center to anchor your defense, Bogut would be next in line right after Dwight Howard.
Pick 3: This was what some might argue is my first reach, but I'd argue that it was a steal. I knew who I wanted running the point. I knew I didn't want to built around one not named CP3 or Deron Williams, so I knew that I'd have to wait until the 3rd round minimum to pick one.
And I knew I wanted Kyle Lowry. I watched a LOT of Rockets basketball last season, even more after the trade deadline. Kyle Lowry was the best, if not top-3 two-way point guards in basketball. I'll explain more about him later, so read that first before your head explodes. The first pop-word is Gumption.
Pick 4: This was my first 'ballsy' move. I traded Riah two 5th round picks for the 4(1), deciding that I needed to grab the best talent out there and roll the dice. Last year this draft came down to super-duper stars, and since I didn't have LeBron or Dwight Howard, I needed talent. There were lots of adaquate role players available. Wilson Chandler was a guy that StartOrien was absolutely begging me to take, because his skillset (defense, okay 3pt shooting, good slasher) was almost ideal.
But, I didn't go with 'safe' here. I swung for the fences. The All-Stars (at least the guys probable to make it in the next few years) were all gone. There was some good proven talent left at the SG and PG positions, but nobody in my mind came close to Derrick Williams. His scoring efficiency and versatility were unparalleled in college last year, and while he's not going to equal those numbers on the pro level, especially not initially, he's all-star talent in the waiting. We're building a team here, and Derrick Williams was what was best for the team.
Pick 5: With my 5th pick I went all defense, and made another trade up for Tony Allen (in the 6th round). He was the best fit for me at the time, especially when I was planning on starting Derrick Williams at the 3. After this though was where it got interesting.
The rest of the picks, and the rest of my team: I could've stopped there, and played it safe. The draft is deep, and there was plenty of talent left on the board. But, I didn't. I drafted Corey Maggette, and while Maggette is a talented player, I haven't seen him bring more to a team than he took away since the Clippers were in the playoffs. That goes double for Milwaukee last year. I traded Maggette for Jared Dudley. Then, I packaged Dudley/Tony Allen for my 5th cornerpiece, James Harden, and traded up in the draft to get a 3pt shooting, hard defending, glue guy in Carlos Delfino.
That turned the tide for me and turned me into 'kinda contender' and a likely 4th or 5th seed into a true contender, and in my mind the most talented team in the league. The second popword is buzinga. I followed up the Delfino pick with other capable role players. Ramon Sessions, Fransisco Garcia, Anthony Tolliver, Tiago Splitter, Jonas Jerebko, Josh Childress. I traded some for better fits and ended up with the masterpiece you see below:
The Rotation
Player (minutes at listed position)
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry (37), Ramon Sessions (11)
Shooting Guard: James Harden (32), Anthony Morrow (16)
Small Forward: Carlos Delfino (25), Derrick Wiliams (13), Jonas Jerebko (10)
Power Forward: Amar'e Stoudemire (24), Derrick Williams (15), Jonas Jerebko (9)
Center: Andrew Bogut (32), Amar'e Stoudemire (10), Robin Lopez (6)
Deep Bench: Patty Mills, Anthony Tolliver, Gerald Hendersen
Reasoning: I limited Amar'e and Bogut's minutes because both guys are injury risks. One of the biggest contributors to injury is exhaustion. D'Antoni ran Amar'e into the ground last year, and that resulted in Amar'e getting injured against the Celtics in the playoffs (after TORCHING the Celtics), and likely knocking out the Knicks in 4 games flat.
Both guys could probably survive 3 minutes or so a game a piece, but those 3 minutes are big ones. They were the difference for KG that allowed him to continue to play at a high level last season. They were part of the reason Glen Davis was asked to defend centers when KG was in the game, and why Glen Davis likely played 4-5 minutes more than he should've per game. They're an important difference.
I limited Harden to 32 because frankly he's never played as many minutes as I'm going to ask him to, and its going to take some time to acclimate to that.
I'm limiting Delfino because I'm playing Jerebko. I'm playing Jerebko now because I am a big believer in him now. But, that's not the whole reason. I'm also playing him because if Amar'e or Bogut go down for significant time, he'll be the first guy to see a big minutes burst, along with Anthony Tolliver and Robin Lopez. Jerebko is used to big minutes, and I can't throw him in cold, but at 6'10 and a tenacious defender, he's a valuable asset, and on top of that, if Derrick Williams doesn't produce like I expect him to, Jerebko can sop up those minutes. I gotta keep him loose
**Note on Projected Stats**
-I know that the scoring stats are off. I took each player's minutes played from 2011 (the exceptions being Derrick Williams, Andrew Bogut, Robin Lopez, Kyle Lowry and Jonas Jerebko. The third pop?word is 'Neal Peart'. The reasons being injury which is projected to be healed, difference in depth chart, or the fact that he was in college in 2011), then divided each numerical stat by minutes played, then multiplied that by the minutes I have them playing. The biggest increase was James Harden from 24 to 32. No NBA team has averaged over 115 points since the early 90's, and this team won't be the first. PPG for these guys will drop from where I projected, but I think FG%'s for some of them will go up, and as will overall team efficiency. Lowry and Bogut are two guys that'll probably drop a little. Projected Scoring Stats
Projected Rebounding/Assists/TO's/PF/Defense
Positional breakdown:
Point Guard: Kyle Lowry (37 minutes) runs the show. After the All-Star break, when the Rockets stopped show-casing Aaron Brooks and let Lowry run the show, Lowry averaged 37.5 minutes per game, 17.5 points, 7.6 assists, 44.7% FG and 41% 3pt%. Before the trade deadline, the Rockets were 29-31. After, they went on to go 13-7, and nearly sqweak into the playoffs. Lowry has been waiting his entire life for a legitimate starting and featured role at the PG position in the NBA, and while he only got it because Aaron Brooks was injured, he kept it because he deserved it. Ramon Sessions will perform in the role of understudy and backup. While I hate it that I'm just one of a litany of GM's who have willfully limited Sessions' minutes, the fact of the matter is that Lowry is just a lot better. Sessions should be a starter in the NBA, but he isn't going to steal any minutes from Kyle Lowry. In the minutes he does have, he'll bring his decent defense, superb slashing skills, and efficient ball handling skills.
Shooting Guard:James Harden proved last season and especially in the playoffs that he's more than ready to assume a prominent role in the offense. He's a deadly pick and roll partner for Amar'e Stoudemire, and a versatile offense threat in his own right. While his defense doesn't compare to his backup in OKC (Thabo), he's not below average there, and in fact his defensive rating was better than alleged defensive stalwarts Arron Affalo, Chauncey Billups, and Kirk Hinrich. On top of that, he weathered his Sophomore Slump and persevered! Harden should only improve on his game from last season. The fourth p0p-w0rd is Lowry. Anthony Morrow, while not the well-rounded player Harden is, was a 42% shooter from distance last season, and that was on what most people would agree is too many attempts. He is the guy
John Hollinger once referenced as 'if not the best shooter in basketball, on the short list.'
Small Forward: This is where some opinions start to differ on my amazing team. Carlos Delfino is the starter. Delfino's defense at the 3 takes strain away from Bogut, and allows him to help on Amare's man if necessary, and to play more focused team defense. Delfino is also a proven 3pt threat who can stretch the floor and does not demand touches. The fifth p%p w%rd is Gigandor. The majority of the rest of the minutes are sopped up by Derrick Williams, who at his size and range will present a mismatch to any SF in the league on the offensive end. Jerebko will fill in here too as a hustle-man, primarily next to Derrick Williams when he plays the 4, in which Jerebko takes on the more dangerous of the forwards.
Power Forward: Amar'e plays the majority of the minutes here, due in fact to him being the best scoring power forward in the NBA. However, Derrick Williams logs a solid 15 minutes here, because his speed and shooting ability will be a considerable change of pace, especially playing next to Amar'e at the center (which I will get to). Jerebko sops up some minutes here as well, lending some toughness to the ends of quarters.
Center: Bogut plays all 32 of his minutes here, because he's the second best center in basketball (if I haven't made that evident). But, behind him is the 2nd team All-NBA center, Amar'e Stoudemire. Both guys bring different tool sets to the table, and both will end up playing varied positions there depending on their efficacy. Bogut brings stability, defense, and predictable efficiency. Amar'e brings explosiveness, fast-tempo, and offensive mismatches against virtually every starting and backup center in the league. Robin Lopez plays garbage time to stay loose, and regain his confidence.
Question You're Eager To Ask, #1: Andrew Bogut hasn't played 82 games in a season since his rookie year, 6 years ago. What will you do if he suffers an injury that keeps him out for substantial minutes?
Answer: Bogut's primary ailment last year was his elbow which suffered a gruesome injury in 09/10. By the time this off-season ends, he should be completely healed. That's by his own admission. That matters, because Bogut has never minced words regarding his injury. He's never pretended he was healthy when he wasn't, and for that, I take him at his word.
However, Bogut has not played a full healthy season since his rookie year (6 years ago), and because of that, preparations must be made. That is the fundamental reason I traded the higher-ceiling, more versatile Tiago Splitter for Robin Lopez. Lopez has demonstrated the ability to be a starting caliber center in the NBA, and while he was limited by injury last season, I believe him able to regain that level of ability again.
If Bogut goes down for 15 games or so, the frontcourt rotation becomes:
PF: Amar'e Stoudemire (20), Derrick Williams (15), Jonas Jerebko (10), Anthony Tolliver (
C: Robin Lopez (18), Amare Stoudemire (15), Anthony Tolliver (15)
I feel like that rotation is still more dangerous than most in this substantially deeper league, and offers a very versatile mix of defense, offense, and toughness. If I'm a 65 win team when Bogut plays an entire season (which I think I am), I'm a 60 win team if he plays 70.
Question You're Eager To Ask, #2: What if Bogut's hypothetical injury is season ending?
Answer: Well, what happens if your second best overall player goes down with a season-ending injury? Basically, you're a little screwed. Not even a little, you're weakened, much more than planned when you drafted your team.
But, crap happens. I don't think it is a likelihood, I don't think it it will happen. But, if it did, consider this: Robin Lopez started next to Amar'e Stoudemire in his last year in Phoenix, and Robin Lopez helped Amar'e and Steve Nash guide those Suns to a 66% win record, and was believed to be the missing piece to supplanting the Lakers in the conference Finals. It didn't turn out, but it did turn into a 6 game series. Are we as good without Bogut? Heck no. But are we still better than most? Yes.
Question You're Eager To Ask, #3: What happens if Amar'e suffers a significant injury?
Answer: This one is a little trickier than Bogut's. Without Amar'e, this team is substantially worse. The sixth P*p werd is 'Ron Paul'. Amar'e's a lot more versatile than Bogut, and because of that my team suffers greatly. First, let me say, I've taken precautions. In the seasons where Amar'e has played 35 minutes per game or less, he averages less than 2 games lost per regular season. (I'm discounting the year he struggled to make it back from knee surgery and only played 16 games to poor effect)
I'm also not asking Amare to play the majority of his minutes at the center position. That will decrease wear and tear, and should decrease any chance of injury.
But lets bear out your little projection. If Amar'e is injured, I'd use the following rotation:
PF: Tolliver (20), Williams (15), Jerebko (13)
C: Bogut (35), Lopez (13), Tolliver (whatever is left if foul trouble happens)
Why Tolliver? Because he has 3pt range, is a capable defender, and has shown the distinct ability to seamlessly step into the starting role. Also, my bringing along of Williams is a distinct plan; I don't want anything but predictability for Williams, because frankly I think the best way to treat a rookie is to keep them as regular as possible. Too much time can be as bad as too little time or a short leash for development, and Williams isn't ready for 32 minutes a game yet, or a starting role.
Question You're Eager To Ask, #4: What if both Bogut and Stoudemire are down for extended time at the same time?
Answer: Now you're just being a tool, and that's against the rules. What happens if your whole team all finds out they have malaria at the same time from a charity team event in Haiti? Yeah...you like that? Eat it.
Topic: 2011 CB Draft Northwest Division Press Conference (Read 58131 times)