Author Topic: ESPN NBARank  (Read 8647 times)

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Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2018, 07:16:31 AM »

Offline Erik

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I've been looking for a player forced turnover stat but can't find it. I think that all of his intangibles boil down to that one metric: giving his team extra possessions through crazy hustle.

I know the biggest knock on him is his scoring efficiency. It's seriously overblown for what role he is on our team.

3 pointers:
Smart shot 30% from 3 last season on 4.6 attempts per game for 4.14 points per game . Let's say you bump that up to what Klay Thompson shot from 3: 44%. That means he would be making 2.024 3's per game for 6.072 points for a difference of 1.932 points per game.

2 pointers:
Smart shot 42.9% from 2s on 4.9 attempts per game for 4.2042 points. Let's say you bump that up to what Thompson shot from 2 point shooting: 52.6%. That means he would be making 2.5774 2's per game for 5.1548 points for a difference of 0.9506.

Add those up for 2.8826 points (let's call it 3) as the difference lost per game between Smart and Klay Thompson on Thompson's efficiency & Smart's volume. Can you seriously not find 3 points per game that Smart created out of thin air through hustle?

Thompson is a pure scorer. Smart makes up for his lack of shooting ability by creating extra possessions. They're just different players. You obviously can't put Smart as the feature of a team, but if you sneak him into a team surrounded by 5 great scorers, he can play like #55 for sure just like you can't make Capela a featured player of a team, but if you put him next to two hall of fame penetrating point guards, he's going to play like a top 50 player.

3 ppg is the amount he costs u offensively by shooting. The harder number to calculate is what he costs you when guys just dont guard him. The other team can often let Smarts defender roam around the paint when hes out there because he doesnt shoot well or finish well. This means Irving Brown, Tatum face extra defenders dropping their percentages. I dont know what the cumulative point difference is, and Smart does make up quite a bit with his hustle plays. He is still a net positive, but you do lose more than 3ppg offensively I  am sure of that.

I don’t recall this happening. He actually gets a surprising amount of respect on the 3 point line. You’re thinking of Ben Simmons.

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2018, 09:21:13 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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Hayward 40
Brown 37
Horford 34

Tatum and Irving are in the top 30.

Understand, this means ESPN projects Irving and Tatum as All-stars, and the three others as potential alternates.

I still don't think ESPN understands just how good Hayward and Horford are at basketball.

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2018, 09:22:11 AM »

Offline RLewis35

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Hayward at 40, Jaylen at 37 and Al at 34.

I'm thinking Tatum will be around 25 and Kyrie in the teens.

I think they are not sure how the minutes and shots will shake out which accounts somewhat for the grouping between 34-40 in those 3 guys who are all at very diff stages in their careers.

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2018, 09:34:49 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Hayward at 40 is down right shocking. 
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Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
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Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2018, 09:35:51 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Hayward at 40 is down right shocking.
Yeah, that's absurd.

We may disagree with him vs Kyrie, but behind Jaylen Brown?? Insanity
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2018, 09:36:54 AM »

Offline gouki88

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I still don't think ESPN understands just how good Hayward and Horford are at basketball.
FTFY
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2018, 10:30:19 AM »

Offline bdm860

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It's interesting how different the ESPN top 100 is from the SI one, yet at the same time how similar they are.

Both had Terry Rozier at #82.

ESPN has Covington at #49, while SI had him at #48.  People here claiming Covington is overrated, but both of those have him in the top 50.


Both had Khris Middleton slightly ahead of DeMar DeRozan (ESPN has them at #39 and #35, while SI had them at #30 and #28).  That's a 2nd option who has never been out of the 1st round vs an All-NBA player (2 years in a row) who the people on Reddit constantly pointed out put up 52 on Middleton.

ESPN has Cousins at #69, while SI had him at #68.
Both had Andre Drummond at #46
ESPN had Clint Capela at #36, while SI had him at #35.
Interesting to see how similar their C rankings were in some spots, yet so different in others (DeAndre Jordan #80 vs #43, Horford #34 vs #16).

I'm sure there's other similarities, but these are the ones that jumped out to me looking at the lists.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2018, 11:13:22 AM by bdm860 »

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Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2018, 10:43:59 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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I've been looking for a player forced turnover stat but can't find it. I think that all of his intangibles boil down to that one metric: giving his team extra possessions through crazy hustle.

I know the biggest knock on him is his scoring efficiency. It's seriously overblown for what role he is on our team.

3 pointers:
Smart shot 30% from 3 last season on 4.6 attempts per game for 4.14 points per game . Let's say you bump that up to what Klay Thompson shot from 3: 44%. That means he would be making 2.024 3's per game for 6.072 points for a difference of 1.932 points per game.

2 pointers:
Smart shot 42.9% from 2s on 4.9 attempts per game for 4.2042 points. Let's say you bump that up to what Thompson shot from 2 point shooting: 52.6%. That means he would be making 2.5774 2's per game for 5.1548 points for a difference of 0.9506.

Add those up for 2.8826 points (let's call it 3) as the difference lost per game between Smart and Klay Thompson on Thompson's efficiency & Smart's volume. Can you seriously not find 3 points per game that Smart created out of thin air through hustle?

Thompson is a pure scorer. Smart makes up for his lack of shooting ability by creating extra possessions. They're just different players. You obviously can't put Smart as the feature of a team, but if you sneak him into a team surrounded by 5 great scorers, he can play like #55 for sure just like you can't make Capela a featured player of a team, but if you put him next to two hall of fame penetrating point guards, he's going to play like a top 50 player.

3 ppg is the amount he costs u offensively by shooting. The harder number to calculate is what he costs you when guys just dont guard him. The other team can often let Smarts defender roam around the paint when hes out there because he doesnt shoot well or finish well. This means Irving Brown, Tatum face extra defenders dropping their percentages. I dont know what the cumulative point difference is, and Smart does make up quite a bit with his hustle plays. He is still a net positive, but you do lose more than 3ppg offensively I  am sure of that.

I don’t recall this happening. He actually gets a surprising amount of respect on the 3 point line. You’re thinking of Ben Simmons.

No, I'm thinking of Smart. And it happens a lot. Not against every team, it didn't happen a whole lot vs the Cavs for example. But teams with smart head coaches do it.

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2018, 10:46:28 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Hayward at 40 is down right shocking.
Yeah, that's absurd.

We may disagree with him vs Kyrie, but behind Jaylen Brown?? Insanity

Ya I love me some Brown, and Hayward may be coming back from injury but having him behind Brown or Tatum is borderline lunacy. And as much as I love Tatum he isnt a top 30 player yet. Great playoffs but the guy averaged 13.9 next last year. Feels like they are jumping the gun by a year wit that ranking.

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2018, 10:58:20 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Hayward at 40 is down right shocking.
Yeah, that's absurd.

We may disagree with him vs Kyrie, but behind Jaylen Brown?? Insanity

Ya I love me some Brown, and Hayward may be coming back from injury but having him behind Brown or Tatum is borderline lunacy. And as much as I love Tatum he isnt a top 30 player yet. Great playoffs but the guy averaged 13.9 next last year. Feels like they are jumping the gun by a year wit that ranking.
well it is based on what they think will happen this coming season, but I can't imagine Tatum is a top 30 player next year.
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Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2018, 11:55:59 AM »

Offline Erik

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No, I'm thinking of Smart. And it happens a lot. Not against every team, it didn't happen a whole lot vs the Cavs for example. But teams with smart head coaches do it.

I was curious if I was remembering incorrectly, so I found some highlights between Spurs & Celtics (Pop is a smart head coach, right?). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gje52Rq_4yk

2:20: Mills stays pretty close to Smart. Is even too afraid to help on the PnR.
2:39: Mills wants to help on the drive and then remembers that Smart is wide open for 3 and pulls back and lets the layup go. This is blatant evidence that either Pop isn't instructing what you claim or he messed up. This is the ideal situation to leave Smart to stop the free 2 points.

The rest of the video is much of the same. Defense sags off a tiny bit when he doesn't have the ball (they do that vs everyone). Nothing in particular different about how they guard Smart.


Do you have any specific examples of teams doing this?

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2018, 11:59:10 AM »

Offline Erik

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Hayward at 40 is down right shocking.

I have no problem at all with this ranking given the guy broke his leg. He has a lot to prove.

Horford's ranking is the actual problem. Whoever gave him that ranking does not watch Al Horford play on the Celtics.  "Horford is already 32 and likely to play a somewhat reduced role on a loaded Celtics roster." Regardless of how many shooters or ball handlers the Celtics have, Horford's role is cemented. It's the OTHER guys who might have this problem. Horford is the Sun in the Celtics' solar system. He is the single most important person and the most catastrophic loss.

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2018, 12:08:01 PM »

Offline td450

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I've been looking for a player forced turnover stat but can't find it. I think that all of his intangibles boil down to that one metric: giving his team extra possessions through crazy hustle.

I know the biggest knock on him is his scoring efficiency. It's seriously overblown for what role he is on our team.

3 pointers:
Smart shot 30% from 3 last season on 4.6 attempts per game for 4.14 points per game . Let's say you bump that up to what Klay Thompson shot from 3: 44%. That means he would be making 2.024 3's per game for 6.072 points for a difference of 1.932 points per game.

2 pointers:
Smart shot 42.9% from 2s on 4.9 attempts per game for 4.2042 points. Let's say you bump that up to what Thompson shot from 2 point shooting: 52.6%. That means he would be making 2.5774 2's per game for 5.1548 points for a difference of 0.9506.

Add those up for 2.8826 points (let's call it 3) as the difference lost per game between Smart and Klay Thompson on Thompson's efficiency & Smart's volume. Can you seriously not find 3 points per game that Smart created out of thin air through hustle?

Thompson is a pure scorer. Smart makes up for his lack of shooting ability by creating extra possessions. They're just different players. You obviously can't put Smart as the feature of a team, but if you sneak him into a team surrounded by 5 great scorers, he can play like #55 for sure just like you can't make Capela a featured player of a team, but if you put him next to two hall of fame penetrating point guards, he's going to play like a top 50 player.

3 ppg is the amount he costs u offensively by shooting. The harder number to calculate is what he costs you when guys just dont guard him. The other team can often let Smarts defender roam around the paint when hes out there because he doesnt shoot well or finish well. This means Irving Brown, Tatum face extra defenders dropping their percentages. I dont know what the cumulative point difference is, and Smart does make up quite a bit with his hustle plays. He is still a net positive, but you do lose more than 3ppg offensively I  am sure of that.

I don’t recall this happening. He actually gets a surprising amount of respect on the 3 point line. You’re thinking of Ben Simmons.

No, I'm thinking of Smart. And it happens a lot. Not against every team, it didn't happen a whole lot vs the Cavs for example. But teams with smart head coaches do it.

Numeracy wise, assuming that Smart averages 3 points more than the players he competes against through hustle is crazy math abuse. Klay Thompson makes hustle plays too. Take a look at the differentials between Atlanta and GS as teams. Three point differentials for individual players can wash you out of the league.

As to not being covered, he clearly is the guy teams cheat off. It does make it harder for the other guys on the floor. Stevens does put him out there because he is very good at exploiting the lack of attention and getting to the ball.

Most C's fans just think he's a genius at making plays on loose balls at the end of games, and he is, but a huge part of that is that people are cheating off him. He makes less of those plays with the second unit.



Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #28 on: September 18, 2018, 12:59:06 PM »

Offline Erik

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Numeracy wise, assuming that Smart averages 3 points more than the players he competes against through hustle is crazy math abuse. Klay Thompson makes hustle plays too. Take a look at the differentials between Atlanta and GS as teams. Three point differentials for individual players can wash you out of the league.

As to not being covered, he clearly is the guy teams cheat off. It does make it harder for the other guys on the floor. Stevens does put him out there because he is very good at exploiting the lack of attention and getting to the ball.

Most C's fans just think he's a genius at making plays on loose balls at the end of games, and he is, but a huge part of that is that people are cheating off him. He makes less of those plays with the second unit.

OK, how many extra points do you think he earns for his team compared to other NBA players?  This is completely subjective because that stat doesn't exist or is not public. The reason I'm asking is because I used Klay Thompson (probably the best overall shooter in the NBA?) for the 2.8 points. If you'd like to make sure we don't have any math abuse, let's use the average player and recalculate just how much he needs to be "above average" as a first step. I'm thinking that number will be close to about 1 point that he costs us for not being an average shooter. 1 point is roughly 1 possession in the NBA.

I've also seen no evidence that teams cheat off him and I've provided evidence of at least one team that doesn't. Care to provide evidence ?

Re: ESPN NBARank
« Reply #29 on: September 18, 2018, 01:30:48 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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No, I'm thinking of Smart. And it happens a lot. Not against every team, it didn't happen a whole lot vs the Cavs for example. But teams with smart head coaches do it.

I was curious if I was remembering incorrectly, so I found some highlights between Spurs & Celtics (Pop is a smart head coach, right?). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gje52Rq_4yk

2:20: Mills stays pretty close to Smart. Is even too afraid to help on the PnR.
2:39: Mills wants to help on the drive and then remembers that Smart is wide open for 3 and pulls back and lets the layup go. This is blatant evidence that either Pop isn't instructing what you claim or he messed up. This is the ideal situation to leave Smart to stop the free 2 points.

The rest of the video is much of the same. Defense sags off a tiny bit when he doesn't have the ball (they do that vs everyone). Nothing in particular different about how they guard Smart.


Do you have any specific examples of teams doing this?

Okay man, you do realize that referencing highlights to prove your point is like global warming skeptics pointing to snow and smugly asking "Where's your global warming now?" Highlights are 95% offensive and end with somebody scoring, meaning that almost by definition the defense did the WRONG THING. Even then your highlights arent good example of what you are describing. Mills gives Smart 10-15 feet in the first clip and is almost in the paint, while the guy guarding Morris who is a quick pass away can't leave to help because Morris can shoot a little. So ya, my point stands. Marcus Smart hurts spacing. Doesn't mean he doesn't help a lot with his hustle, and like I said hes a net positive. But lets not kid our self. If the point you are trying to make is even remotely accurate than why does virtually every team load up on high efficiency players or try to? Its because the cumulative difference in efficiency is more than the difference between FG%.

Ag