Author Topic: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue  (Read 4656 times)

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Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2018, 10:18:21 PM »

Online SCeltic34

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Good problem to have.  If anyone is going to be willing to sacrifice shots it's going to be Horford.  I wouldn't be surprised if he averages only 10 PPG or even less this season, and with our depth I think Brad is going to play him around 28 MPG to preserve him for the playoffs.

Last season FG attempts per game:
Kyrie - 18.1 attempts in 32.2 MPG
Brown - 11.5 attempts in 30.7 MPG
Morris - 11.3 attempts in 26.7 MPG
Horford - 10.5 attempts in 31.6 MPG
Tatum - 10.4 attempts in 30.5 MPG
Rozier - 10 attempts in 25.9 MPG
Smart - 9.5 attempts in 29.9 MPG
Baynes - 5.5 attempts in 18.3 MPG

In his final 2 seasons with Utah, Hayward's FG attempts per game have been 15 and 15.8.  At least one of Hayward, Tatum, or Kyrie will be on the floor at all times I'm guessing to help anchor the 2nd unit.  If it's Hayward, this would be a good way to get him his shots.

Morris ideally would shoot less, as would Rozier.  Smart needs to shoot way less than he does and I hope Brad restricts him a bit this year.  If they are willing to accept a smaller role in addition to Kyrie hopefully sacrificing a bit of his iso-ball for the good of the team, I think we can have great scoring balance without our vets getting too disgruntled.  I think if anyone is going to have a problem it's going to be Morris.

And wasn't that playing in an extremely slow paced offense? I would treat that more like 16-18 shots per game, which makes the problem even harder

That's a good point.  I think they were the slowest-paced offense in the entire league.  I'd imagine however that Hayward accepted that he would be sacrificing individual stats when he chose to sign here.  I don't see him having a problem with 13-14 FGA per game.  Some of the other players on the other hand...

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2018, 10:21:35 PM »

Offline action781

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Injuries occur (as we all know from last year) so I am not too worried. Even if all players stayed healthy and played all 82 games this year, then you could still work it out so that the 5 players Eddie laid out above would have okay minutes.

Smart - 24
Rozier - 24
Baynes - 16
Morris - 16
Theis - 10

I realize this isn't perfect and it doesn't leave any minutes for the deep bench, but a solid 32MPG last year needed to be distributed because of the loss of Hayward. That doesn't even take into account the late season losses of Kyrie or Theis (or the 28 games each missed by Smart and Morris).

But, like I said, there will be injuries (or at least days off) and players will more than make up their minutes that way. And if they don't, they are likely not players we are planning to keep long-term anyway.

This would be a career low in minutes per game for Smart and the least for Morris since averaging 7.9 in his rookie season.  I'd agree with Grande that this could plausibly be an issue.  Not to mention far fewer shots for Jaylen, Tatum, and Rozier than their successful recent postseason.

I think giving players days off for rest here and there when we have a fully healthy squad is a good way to combat this and make sure players are getting good chunks of minutes.  It's hard to develop rhythm when you get fewer minutes than used to.
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Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2018, 11:28:07 PM »

Offline Tereve Nam

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There seems to be quite a few things in place that could make this a non issue.

Our Coach, high scoring team, blowouts, great passing and distribution, decent number of unselfish players, balanced roster etc.

In addition to the already stated plan of resting players and keeping starter minutes down Im confident Brad will be happy to let the bench play xtra minutes in the games they are extending leads.

I think Terry, Morris and anyone else that is motivated to get more touches just needs to go out and play great to get those opportunities. Play hard and smart for every moment you are in the game and you will find yourself getting more minutes and shots.
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Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #18 on: August 22, 2018, 01:15:27 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Every great team has to manage egos and shots. Talk to me in March and we'll see if it's an issue.

Yawn.

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #19 on: August 22, 2018, 02:35:26 AM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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I refuse to believe that too many good players is a bad thing

As long as egos don’t prevail, it won’t be.

If guys start making noise or pouting or playing out of the system, it’s any easy fix: Ainge ships some guys out for picks or puts together a big package.

I think this team deserves the benefit of the doubt as everyone knows how/why they all got the shots and playing time they did.

The only one who could be the odd man out is Morris, and he was a little vocal to start last season about his role but rather quickly accepted it and even embraced it. If he continues to look at the big picture, he will be fine,
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Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #20 on: August 22, 2018, 02:42:35 AM »

Offline iadera

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If any team should have ego-problems, last team with this issue should be Celtics. They have a lots of team-players. Starting with Horford, Smart, Brown, then Rozier, Hayward, Tatum. The only possible ego-problems could be Kyrie and Morris. But, after all, we got best coach in the NBA, so that doesn't seem like problem at any circumstances.

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #21 on: August 22, 2018, 06:15:43 AM »

Online RodyTur10

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Good problem to have.  If anyone is going to be willing to sacrifice shots it's going to be Horford.  I wouldn't be surprised if he averages only 10 PPG or even less this season, and with our depth I think Brad is going to play him around 28 MPG to preserve him for the playoffs.

Last season FG attempts per game:
Kyrie - 18.1 attempts in 32.2 MPG
Brown - 11.5 attempts in 30.7 MPG
Morris - 11.3 attempts in 26.7 MPG
Horford - 10.5 attempts in 31.6 MPG
Tatum - 10.4 attempts in 30.5 MPG
Rozier - 10 attempts in 25.9 MPG
Smart - 9.5 attempts in 29.9 MPG
Baynes - 5.5 attempts in 18.3 MPG

Morris ideally would shoot less, as would Rozier.  Smart needs to shoot way less than he does and I hope Brad restricts him a bit this year.

This is why I want the starting unit to be Irving - Brown - Tatum - Horford - Baynes. Then you have enough opportunity for Brown and Tatum to develop on the offensive end. And when you have Hayward in the Ginobili-role you bring in a player who can carry the team when a couple of starters get their rest. The team will be more balanced that way and you can torch other teams when they bring in a 2nd unit with much less talent.

As you pointed out Morris and Rozier were the players with (relatively) the most shots, besides Kyrie. That's not an ideal situation. I'd like to see the distribution of shots to look like below.

Irving - 16 attempts in 30 MPG (22 PPG)

Hayward - 13 attempts in 30 MPG (18 PPG)
Tatum - 13 attempts in 30 MPG (17 PPG)
Brown - 12 attempts in 30 MPG (15 PPG)

Horford - 9 attempts in 30 MPG (11 PPG)
Rozier - 8 attempts in 20 MPG (9 PPG)

Morris - 6 attempts in 15 MPG (7 PPG)
Smart - 6 attempts in 25 MPG (6 PPG)
Theis - 4 attempts in 15 MPG (6 PPG)
Baynes - 4 attempts in 20 MPG (4 PPG)

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #22 on: August 22, 2018, 06:39:08 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Good problem to have.  If anyone is going to be willing to sacrifice shots it's going to be Horford.  I wouldn't be surprised if he averages only 10 PPG or even less this season, and with our depth I think Brad is going to play him around 28 MPG to preserve him for the playoffs.

Last season FG attempts per game:
Kyrie - 18.1 attempts in 32.2 MPG
Brown - 11.5 attempts in 30.7 MPG
Morris - 11.3 attempts in 26.7 MPG
Horford - 10.5 attempts in 31.6 MPG
Tatum - 10.4 attempts in 30.5 MPG
Rozier - 10 attempts in 25.9 MPG
Smart - 9.5 attempts in 29.9 MPG
Baynes - 5.5 attempts in 18.3 MPG

Morris ideally would shoot less, as would Rozier.  Smart needs to shoot way less than he does and I hope Brad restricts him a bit this year.

This is why I want the starting unit to be Irving - Brown - Tatum - Horford - Baynes. Then you have enough opportunity for Brown and Tatum to develop on the offensive end. And when you have Hayward in the Ginobili-role you bring in a player who can carry the team when a couple of starters get their rest. The team will be more balanced that way and you can torch other teams when they bring in a 2nd unit with much less talent.

As you pointed out Morris and Rozier were the players with (relatively) the most shots, besides Kyrie. That's not an ideal situation. I'd like to see the distribution of shots to look like below.

Irving - 16 attempts in 30 MPG (22 PPG)

Hayward - 13 attempts in 30 MPG (18 PPG)
Tatum - 13 attempts in 30 MPG (17 PPG)
Brown - 12 attempts in 30 MPG (15 PPG)

Horford - 9 attempts in 30 MPG (11 PPG)
Rozier - 8 attempts in 20 MPG (9 PPG)

Morris - 6 attempts in 15 MPG (7 PPG)
Smart - 6 attempts in 25 MPG (6 PPG)
Theis - 4 attempts in 15 MPG (6 PPG)
Baynes - 4 attempts in 20 MPG (4 PPG)
A world in which Marcus Smart only has 6FGA a game is one I desperately want to live in
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Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #23 on: August 22, 2018, 08:30:58 AM »

Offline td450

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Good problem to have.  If anyone is going to be willing to sacrifice shots it's going to be Horford.  I wouldn't be surprised if he averages only 10 PPG or even less this season, and with our depth I think Brad is going to play him around 28 MPG to preserve him for the playoffs.

Last season FG attempts per game:
Kyrie - 18.1 attempts in 32.2 MPG
Brown - 11.5 attempts in 30.7 MPG
Morris - 11.3 attempts in 26.7 MPG
Horford - 10.5 attempts in 31.6 MPG
Tatum - 10.4 attempts in 30.5 MPG
Rozier - 10 attempts in 25.9 MPG
Smart - 9.5 attempts in 29.9 MPG
Baynes - 5.5 attempts in 18.3 MPG

In his final 2 seasons with Utah, Hayward's FG attempts per game have been 15 and 15.8.  At least one of Hayward, Tatum, or Kyrie will be on the floor at all times I'm guessing to help anchor the 2nd unit.  If it's Hayward, this would be a good way to get him his shots.

Morris ideally would shoot less, as would Rozier.  Smart needs to shoot way less than he does and I hope Brad restricts him a bit this year.  If they are willing to accept a smaller role in addition to Kyrie hopefully sacrificing a bit of his iso-ball for the good of the team, I think we can have great scoring balance without our vets getting too disgruntled.  I think if anyone is going to have a problem it's going to be Morris.

I've said before that you have to look at it from a shot distribution perspective.

This is just opinion, but I think it is best for the team to reallocate 20 shots to Hayward, Tatum and Brown. Those shots would come from Morris, Smart and Rozier. Perhaps Kyrie gives up one or two.

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #24 on: August 22, 2018, 08:37:34 AM »

Online DefenseWinsChamps

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People who say this don't know about Horford's or Hayward's unselfishness. They had to beg Hayward to shoot more in Utah, because they were more effective when he shot than when he distributed. I think Horford likes to pick his spots on offense, but he really would rather not shoot that much.

I've said this before and I'll say it again. I expect career highs in assists for all 5 of the top guys. Several guys will flirt with 50-40-90 numbers.

This is creating a story at out nothing.

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #25 on: August 22, 2018, 09:01:28 AM »

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First world problem.

It's definitely a concern and I'm sure we'll see a feeling out process in the first 10-20 games.  However, I think (injuries aside), the team will settle into something.  Shots will come at the expense of the lesser rotation guys, though.  And I'm fine with that.


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Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #26 on: August 22, 2018, 09:37:37 AM »

Offline ManUp

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I think this is a real issue and fans are underestimating the potential problem.

I say wait and see, but if it becomes a real concern a trade makes the most sense. Brown and Tatum are young guys who are looking to prove themselves, Kyrie has an ego to coddle, and Hayward isn't getting paid the max to take 12 shots.

Morris is most expendable if Theis and Ojeleye are healthy.

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #27 on: August 22, 2018, 10:03:00 AM »

Offline td450

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The "problem" is fairly simple. There is virtually no way around it, unless one or more starters go down. Morris, Smart and Rozier took 30 shots a game last year and will give up 20 of those.

Morris will barely play.

Smart and Rozier both have valid reasons to believe they are important players who deserve more shots, not less. They have had the same roles for a few seasons now, where they came in and took most of the shots for the second unit. They will be giving up roughly half of the shots they took last year.

There is no "it will work itself out". Morris, Smart and Rozier will lose out.

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #28 on: August 22, 2018, 10:42:39 AM »

Offline gift

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Guys have to be willing to sacrifice, for sure. I also wonder if some discontentment can be dealt with through a healthy dose of "rest" games, where there are more shots to go around in certain games because other guys are "resting". These games could be staggered enough to get everyone a decent amount of run and interspersed with games where everyone is fully healthy.

By the time the playoffs roll around, ideally everyone would have experience with a variety of lineups (without continuity loss) and be willing to focus singularly on a championship run for a few months.

Re: Grande: Celtics Sacrificing Minutes, Shots a Legitimate Issue
« Reply #29 on: August 22, 2018, 10:49:38 AM »

Online mef730

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I'm waiting for the first headline that says, "Celtics lose game because they scored too many points."

Egos may get bruised, but we seem to have a coach that excels at handling people. Reminds me of the threads from way back when about whether Stevens would be able to handle Rondo.

Mike