I would say close to zero chance he will stay in Toronto- Call me crazy but a choice between cold winters and higher taxes vs Sunshine and the Ocean...I know which I am choosing most of the time. He wants to be in the spotlight, Toronto no matter how competitive they will be will never have a big enough spotlight for his ego. Ego will follow the stars and light....Toronto does not offer that for him.
You do realize that Toronto is the 6th largest market in the NBA. It is a growing thriving international city. It is an absolutely incredible place to live with a lot to do. Sure it is colder than most of the other NBA cities, but it isn't so much colder than about half the markets in the league (including Boston) that you would eliminate it as a place to live.
It is also a nicer city than Los Angeles.
I was just in LA for the third time a few weeks ago and it is turning into a dump. Full of homeless people and junkies. It is noticeably more shady than a few years ago when i last went.
The people in Toronto are nicer, the city is cleaner and much safer.
Yeah, it gets cold... that's what fleece-lined pants are for. And Torontoans love the winter, and their cheerfulness is infectious.
I won't be surprised if Kawhi stays. Especially if he acquires the adoration of the entire country, which he well might. DeRozan was another LA guy and he loved it there once he actually lived there.