Preemptive "Don't Worry About Tatum's Lower 3P%" Thread

[Big333223]

Tatum was scorching from 3 last season, finishing at .434 for the season, best on the team and good for 8th in the entire league. I'm planning on a slight regression.

I don't think he's going to lose his stroke but those are lofty numbers and I expect an expanded role in the offense. He'll see more time as a primary ballhandler, or at least primary scorer, with bench units and that means more creating which could mean tougher shots. I don't think he'll drop off a cliff but if he shoots 39% from 3 this season, I won't be surprised and I don't think we should panic.

[droopdog7]

No one is going to panic if Tatum shoots 39% from three.

[saltlover]

No one is going to panic if Tatum shoots 39% from three.

If the forums still exist in March I maybe have to bump this quote.

[Androslav]

No one is going to panic if Tatum shoots 39% from three.

37% on bigger volume, about 5/6 a game. Still good

[KGs Knee]

I'd be surprised if he didn't have a lower 3P% this season. I expect him to take more shots from behind the arc, so it's reasonable to also expect a dip in efficiency.

[GreenEnvy]

It’s really all about the looks he gets. If they are a lot of wide open corner treys, he will stay extremely efficient.

If he starts to look to create and take over (which I would like to see, actually), we may see a dip, but nothing to worry about.

I expect with the lineup around him (Irving, Brown, Hayward, Horford), he’s going to get some very good looks.

[Big333223]

It’s really all about the looks he gets. If they are a lot of wide open corner treys, he will stay extremely efficient.

If he starts to look to create and take over (which I would like to see, actually), we may see a dip, but nothing to worry about.

I expect with the lineup around him (Irving, Brown, Hayward, Horford), he’s going to get some very good looks.

Definitely. But I wonder how Brad is going to stagger the minutes this season and if we'll see Tatum (and another starter) with more bench units to keep his best players on the floor, getting shots as much as possible.

[gouki88]

It’s really all about the looks he gets. If they are a lot of wide open corner treys, he will stay extremely efficient.

If he starts to look to create and take over (which I would like to see, actually), we may see a dip, but nothing to worry about.

I expect with the lineup around him (Irving, Brown, Hayward, Horford), he’s going to get some very good looks.

Definitely. But I wonder how Brad is going to stagger the minutes this season and if we'll see Tatum (and another starter) with more bench units to keep his best players on the floor, getting shots as much as possible.

I feel as if, of all the starters, Hayward will be the one with the most minutes alongside the bench squad. Proven #1 option and can playmake on the wing.

Considering Tatum's versatility, I could see him getting a few minutes with the bench unit too

[CelticsBR]

It’s really all about the looks he gets. If they are a lot of wide open corner treys, he will stay extremely efficient.

If he starts to look to create and take over (which I would like to see, actually), we may see a dip, but nothing to worry about.

I expect with the lineup around him (Irving, Brown, Hayward, Horford), he’s going to get some very good looks.

Definitely. But I wonder how Brad is going to stagger the minutes this season and if we'll see Tatum (and another starter) with more bench units to keep his best players on the floor, getting shots as much as possible.

When 100%, it will probably be Hayward with the bench. He is by far the most adaptable player of the bunch. He can handle the ball at the times Smart and Terry go nuts, he can slow down the game and distribute and he can flat-out attack. He seems better in a role like this than Irving, Brown and Tatum.

Horford will also see large time with the bench. Stevens will hardly play him more than 6 minutes in the 1st quarter and then he will come back in the 2nd quarter with the bench unit.

[Somebody]

He's gonna shoot over 45% on high volume people. He's just that special.

[gouki88]

He's gonna shoot over 45% on high volume people. He's just that special.

Uhh... very doubtful. Steph Curry has done that twice. Klay Thompson has never done that. Ray Allen did it once, but that was in his last year with us, playing 46 games. Reggie Miller never did that.

It is insanely hard to shoot that efficiently from deep with high volume. I hope your comment was tongue-in-cheek, because it is ridiculous to expect that shooting from anyone

[trickybilly]

It’s really all about the looks he gets. If they are a lot of wide open corner treys, he will stay extremely efficient.

If he starts to look to create and take over (which I would like to see, actually), we may see a dip, but nothing to worry about.

I expect with the lineup around him (Irving, Brown, Hayward, Horford), he’s going to get some very good looks.

Definitely. But I wonder how Brad is going to stagger the minutes this season and if we'll see Tatum (and another starter) with more bench units to keep his best players on the floor, getting shots as much as possible.

I feel as if, of all the starters, Hayward will be the one with the most minutes alongside the bench squad. Proven #1 option and can playmake on the wing.

Considering Tatum's versatility, I could see him getting a few minutes with the bench unit too

Yeah, I was thinking that most of Tatum's minutes come with the bench mob this year.. maybe wrong.

[Somebody]

He's gonna shoot over 45% on high volume people. He's just that special.

Uhh... very doubtful. Steph Curry has done that twice. Klay Thompson has never done that. Ray Allen did it once, but that was in his last year with us, playing 46 games. Reggie Miller never did that.

It is insanely hard to shoot that efficiently from deep with high volume. I hope your comment was tongue-in-cheek, because it is ridiculous to expect that shooting from anyone

It was just in a playful manner, but I truly believe he has the potential to do that. I don't expect him to do that though.

[BitterJim]

It’s really all about the looks he gets. If they are a lot of wide open corner treys, he will stay extremely efficient.

If he starts to look to create and take over (which I would like to see, actually), we may see a dip, but nothing to worry about.

I expect with the lineup around him (Irving, Brown, Hayward, Horford), he’s going to get some very good looks.

Definitely. But I wonder how Brad is going to stagger the minutes this season and if we'll see Tatum (and another starter) with more bench units to keep his best players on the floor, getting shots as much as possible.

I feel as if, of all the starters, Hayward will be the one with the most minutes alongside the bench squad. Proven #1 option and can playmake on the wing.

Considering Tatum's versatility, I could see him getting a few minutes with the bench unit too

To start the season, Brad will try every one of the starters with different bench lineups to try to find the best fits, then settle on a few good lineups as the season goes on. Hayward seems like a good bet for that, but having Tatum as more of a featured scorer in a very young bench lineup could work too

[Sophomore]

It’s really all about the looks he gets. If they are a lot of wide open corner treys, he will stay extremely efficient.

If he starts to look to create and take over (which I would like to see, actually), we may see a dip, but nothing to worry about.

I expect with the lineup around him (Irving, Brown, Hayward, Horford), he’s going to get some very good looks.

That, to me, is the most interesting question - is having a collection of 3-point shooters going to make the team greater than the sum of its parts.  The entire starting five has at least one season averaging 39% or better from three: Irving, Tatum, Brown, Horford, Hayward.  Put them on the floor together, with all that playmaking and passing ability -- someone should be open a lot and anybody standing open on the line is worth that pass. While it's possible any one of them could regress, it seems likely they'll be seeing more uncontested threes than in the past.

Terry (38%) and Morris (37%) add shooting to the rest of the rotation. If either Theis or Baynes could become even a league-average three-point shooter (something that seems possible but who knows), it becomes almost unfair.