Author Topic: Ainge: Draft hit & misses  (Read 2250 times)

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Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #30 on: July 22, 2018, 03:52:35 PM »

Offline Birdman

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Dumb threads like this one are probably the reason a lot of people stop coming here. Thankfully the majority of the comments were intelligent and informed the OP that he is quite foolish and doesn't seem to understand the NBA or how it works.

Let's do better Celticsblog.
thanks for calling me a fool which im not..if u known me, trust me, u wouldnt...also just putting on here my opinion..if ppl like it or not, its there opinion also..thats why its call a blog..just like me, i hire lot of ppl who were hit and misses
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Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #31 on: July 22, 2018, 03:58:14 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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This guy on reddit did a ranking of all GM's based on drafting ability. His evaluation process and methodology is much more well thought out than yours.  https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/8v1awu/oc_a_new_statistic_evaluating_every_draft_pick/

It's a cool post, with lots of ins and outs, but the upshot of it re the Celtics is that Danny Ainge is a top 5 Drafter in NBA HISTORY (or at least top 10).


So Red Auerbach, Larry Bird, R.C. Buford, Jerry Krause, and Jerry West aren't even in this dude's top five? Come on. ::)

Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #32 on: July 22, 2018, 04:34:09 PM »

Offline positivitize

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This guy on reddit did a ranking of all GM's based on drafting ability. His evaluation process and methodology is much more well thought out than yours.  https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/8v1awu/oc_a_new_statistic_evaluating_every_draft_pick/

It's a cool post, with lots of ins and outs, but the upshot of it re the Celtics is that Danny Ainge is a top 5 Drafter in NBA HISTORY (or at least top 10).


So Red Auerbach, Larry Bird, R.C. Buford, Jerry Krause, and Jerry West aren't even in this dude's top five? Come on. ::)

My bad. Apparently, it uses stats that weren't being recorded pre-2000.
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Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #33 on: July 24, 2018, 08:43:33 PM »

Offline gar

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Have to wonder what would have become of James Young if he stayed another year at Kentucky. Sorry to see him miss the boat in such a big way. He had his chances but lacked desire.


Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #34 on: July 24, 2018, 09:27:31 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Have to wonder what would have become of James Young if he stayed another year at Kentucky. Sorry to see him miss the boat in such a big way. He had his chances but lacked desire.

his sophomore year would have been when Kentucky went undefeated until the Final Four game

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/kentucky/2015.html

That roster was stacked. Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis were backups...Starters were the Harrison twins, Trey Lyles, Cauley-Stein and KAT.




Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #35 on: August 12, 2018, 11:07:29 AM »

Offline Emmette Bryant

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Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #36 on: August 12, 2018, 02:38:34 PM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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CBS will make him a better drafter

Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #37 on: August 12, 2018, 06:11:12 PM »

Offline More Banners

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Redo your list. Here's how it should look like.

1st rounders

Hit
Kendrick Perkins (2003)
Al Jefferson (2004)
Tony Allen (2004)
Delonte West (2004)
Gerald Green (2005)
Rajon Rondo (2006)
Avery Bradley (2010)
Jared Sullinger (2012)
Kelly Olynyk (2013)
Marcus Smart (2014)
Terry Rozier (2015)
Jaylen Brown (2016)
Jayson Tatum (2017)


Miss
Marcus Banks (2003)
JR Giddens (2008)
Jajuan Johnson (2011)
Fab Melo (2012)
James Young (2014)
RJ Hunter (2015)

Guerschon Yabusele and Robert Williams are TBD at the moment.

Note that Jeff Green, Marshon Brooks, Randy Foye and Lucas Noguiera don't count because they were traded in the draft day.

2nd rounders

hit
Ryan Gomes (2005)
Leon Powe (2006)
Glen Davis (2007)
E'twaun Moore (2011)
Semi Ojeleye (2017)
Jabari Bird (2017)

miss
Justin Reed (2004)
Orien Greene (2005)
Gabe Pruitt (2007)
Bill Walker (2008)
Semih Erden (2008)
Lester Hudson (2009)
Luke Harangody (2010)
Kris Joseph (2012)
Colton Iverson (2013)
Ben Bentil (2016)
Demitrius Jackson (2016)
Abdel Nader (2016)
Kadeem Allen (2017)


I'll reserve my judgement about Jordan Mickey since he's still in the league.

Ainge have more miss in the 2nd than in the 1st, but so does all the GMs. I can list many players that Spurs and OKC have missed too. 2nd round is a great place to gamble because you don't lose much with them.

A very nice list there.

Wonder if Bill Walker's couple of years gunning on the Knicks qualifies him as a non-bust. Never played one possession of competent defense, but played a few years and had some high scoring games in there as a regular rotation player on a crappy roster.

Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #38 on: August 12, 2018, 07:33:10 PM »

Offline Big333223

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Redo your list. Here's how it should look like.

1st rounders

Hit
Kendrick Perkins (2003)
Al Jefferson (2004)
Tony Allen (2004)
Delonte West (2004)
Gerald Green (2005)
Rajon Rondo (2006)
Avery Bradley (2010)
Jared Sullinger (2012)
Kelly Olynyk (2013)
Marcus Smart (2014)
Terry Rozier (2015)
Jaylen Brown (2016)
Jayson Tatum (2017)


Miss
Marcus Banks (2003)
JR Giddens (2008)
Jajuan Johnson (2011)
Fab Melo (2012)
James Young (2014)
RJ Hunter (2015)

Guerschon Yabusele and Robert Williams are TBD at the moment.

Note that Jeff Green, Marshon Brooks, Randy Foye and Lucas Noguiera don't count because they were traded in the draft day.

2nd rounders

hit
Ryan Gomes (2005)
Leon Powe (2006)
Glen Davis (2007)
E'twaun Moore (2011)
Semi Ojeleye (2017)
Jabari Bird (2017)

miss
Justin Reed (2004)
Orien Greene (2005)
Gabe Pruitt (2007)
Bill Walker (2008)
Semih Erden (2008)
Lester Hudson (2009)
Luke Harangody (2010)
Kris Joseph (2012)
Colton Iverson (2013)
Ben Bentil (2016)
Demitrius Jackson (2016)
Abdel Nader (2016)
Kadeem Allen (2017)


I'll reserve my judgement about Jordan Mickey since he's still in the league.

Ainge have more miss in the 2nd than in the 1st, but so does all the GMs. I can list many players that Spurs and OKC have missed too. 2nd round is a great place to gamble because you don't lose much with them.

A very nice list there.

Wonder if Bill Walker's couple of years gunning on the Knicks qualifies him as a non-bust. Never played one possession of competent defense, but played a few years and had some high scoring games in there as a regular rotation player on a crappy roster.

I just had the worst time trying to look up Bill Walker's stats on basketball-reference and finally figured out that he's listed there as Henry Walker. But I'm certain he was Bill when he was playing in Boston.
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Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #39 on: August 18, 2018, 11:34:25 AM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:

Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
Kendrick Perkins

So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Glen Davis
Kelly Olynk

Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird

Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter

Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..

Wow that's a long list of poo under misses.

His complete inability to find any value in the second round is somewhat baffling.  You'd think just random chance would cause him to hit at least once.

Looking at the list it's pretty clear if he's drafting anything other than a guard outside the top 10 it's going to be a pretty suspect return.

TP.  Nice data collection.

Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #40 on: August 18, 2018, 11:45:03 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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A lot of people listing second rounders as misses. It seems that people don't realize the likelihood of a hit in the second round.

If a player is selected in the second round and there were no NBA players drafted after him I wouldn't count that as a miss because there were no better alternatives.

Id say Danny is batting above league average on second rounders.
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Re: Ainge: Draft hit & misses
« Reply #41 on: August 18, 2018, 11:51:28 AM »

Online hwangjini_1

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Danny Ainge since 2003 has more misses than hits:

Hits:
Jatson Tatum
Jaylen Brown
Terry Rozier
Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
Tony Allen
Jeff Green-traded for Allen
Al Jefferson-traded for KG
Kendrick Perkins

So-So:
Ryan Gomes
Delonte West
Gerald Green
Glen Davis
Kelly Olynk

Jury still out:
Guershon Yasbele
Semi Ojeleye
Jabari Bird

Misses:
Kadeem Allen
Demetrius Jackson
Ben Bentill
Abdel Nader
RJ Hunter
Jordan Mickey
James Young
Jared Sullinger
Fab Melo
Luke Haragody
Lester Hudson
JR Giddens
Semih Ersan
Gabe Pruitt
Randy Foye
Orien Greene
Kris Joseph
Marshon Brooks
ETwaun Moore
Justin Reed
Troy Bell
Dahntay Jones
Brandon Hunter

Geez, Danny has no luck after middle of 1st round..lot of misses in late and no luck in 2nd rounds..

Wow that's a long list of poo under misses.

His complete inability to find any value in the second round is somewhat baffling.  You'd think just random chance would cause him to hit at least once.

Looking at the list it's pretty clear if he's drafting anything other than a guard outside the top 10 it's going to be a pretty suspect return.

TP.  Nice data collection.
"complete inability to find any value" in the second round? please read the list above more carefully and you will see the following second rounders all of whom made their way onto an nba team and received credible playing time:

ryan gomes
glen davis
semi ojeleye
etwuan moore
jabari bird


next, when assessing drafting abilities, we really need to ask how does ainge's picking stack up against other GMs with similar locations in the draft? that is, look at nba averages to find that out. you cannot understand ainge's drafts without that context. when put in to that context, ainge consistently comes out ahead of most other GMs.
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