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Was Marcus a hit pick?

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Author Topic: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick  (Read 4419 times)

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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #30 on: July 20, 2018, 06:29:54 AM »

Offline mctyson

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Yes he is a "hit."  I think most people want an All-Star level player when drafting in the top 8-10 in the draft, but the reality is that those guys are quite rare and some luck plays into who achieves that and who does not.

Smart is an All-Star level talent on defense and has really turned out to be a good point guard, which I do not think many of us expected.  I was hoping for a Gary Payton type upside but he many never have that offensive skillset. 

There is still time though, and we now have him during his peak.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #31 on: July 20, 2018, 06:54:09 AM »

Offline Green-18

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Yes he is a "hit."  I think most people want an All-Star level player when drafting in the top 8-10 in the draft, but the reality is that those guys are quite rare and some luck plays into who achieves that and who does not.

Smart is an All-Star level talent on defense and has really turned out to be a good point guard, which I do not think many of us expected.  I was hoping for a Gary Payton type upside but he many never have that offensive skillset. 

There is still time though, and we now have him during his peak.

The other factor with drafting "All-Stars" is that some of them fill the box score without having an impact on winning.  How many teams end up paying $25+ million to players who are unable to elevate their teams.  Harrison Barnes is a nice example even though he isn't an All-Star.  Barnes is absolutely a better player than Smart but is his actual impact worth the additional money?  Shave off $7 million per year and I will argue that his value is in line with his true impact.

Despite Smart's flaws I am comfortable that he would have a positive impact on most playoff teams.  His value ($13 million) is perfectly in line with his impact on the court.  I would hate to be paying guys like Barnes, Parsons, Batum, Ibaka, Ryan Anderson, Lavine, Bazemore, etc.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #32 on: July 20, 2018, 01:06:56 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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He is slightly above his "floor" of what I felt he could be. So at least he isn't a bust. I don't call that a hit though. A hit at that high in the draft is an NBA all-star level player.
Take a look at the list in the post above yours. In a strong draft you can get an all star, in most drafts you'll get a starter if they pan out.
Problem with looking at a specific #pick that is its the odds of a pick making it. You have to see things as level of talent at his pick range when a guy is successful. A guy making it is not hitting in the draft. It's talent level.
Mock "trade deadline" team: Blazers.
PG-Lillard, Napier, Baldwin
SG-McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox
SF-Fournier, Harkless, Layman
PF-Aminu, Davis
C- Nurkic, Leonard, Collins

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #33 on: July 20, 2018, 01:10:27 PM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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If you can contribute positively in a meaningful role for a contender you're a "hit" at any draft pick, just maybe not a home run.  Marcus can do that. 

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #34 on: July 20, 2018, 01:16:05 PM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

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When Marcus steals the ball from Durant in game 6 of the finals this year leading to our 4-2 upset of the Champions, his status will go to hit pick.  8)

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #35 on: July 20, 2018, 01:45:26 PM »

Offline Moranis

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #36 on: July 20, 2018, 01:58:27 PM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Was Olynyk a hit too?

Ask the Heat.

It's hard to consider a role player a hit at #6. If Tony Allen had been picked at #6 instead of #25, I wouldn't call him a hit.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #37 on: July 20, 2018, 02:04:01 PM »

Offline greece666

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If you compare Smart with players in his range, he's doing p well

3. Embiid
4. A. Gordon
5. Exum
6. Smart
7. J. Randle
8. Nik Stauskas
9. Vonleh

If you compare him with all the players drafted (eg Jokic at 41) it starts looking much worse, but I'm OK with our FO not being omniscient.

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #38 on: July 20, 2018, 02:14:32 PM »

Offline Wretch

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.

Not trolling honest question, what's your top 10 in a redraft?

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #39 on: July 20, 2018, 02:24:56 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Was Olynyk a hit too?

Ask the Heat.

It's hard to consider a role player a hit at #6. If Tony Allen had been picked at #6 instead of #25, I wouldn't call him a hit.
why? Smart is a key role player for a contending team . Without his defense, we wouldnít have achieved what we did last season

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #40 on: July 20, 2018, 02:30:02 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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If you compare Smart with players in his range, he's doing p well

3. Embiid
4. A. Gordon
5. Exum
6. Smart
7. J. Randle
8. Nik Stauskas
9. Vonleh

If you compare him with all the players drafted (eg Jokic at 41) it starts looking much worse, but I'm OK with our FO not being omniscient.

Other than Embiid, who Ainge also desperately wanted to move up to draft, is there anyone else you could suggest has had a better career/productive season in terms of importance/involvement to the team's success? Jokic is an outlier, because he was overweight, and out of shape and not even fully conditioned, which is why he fell so far. In fact in one interview a while ago, Jokic was almost considering not even bothering to go to the NBA, because while he believed he was an excellent player, his agent was actually considering withdrawing him from the NBA draft. Were it not for the fact that the Nuggets somehow ended up with a stroke of luck at him dropping so far, and deterring off scouts/developmental pundits, he wouldn't ever have been drafted, most likely still undiscovered until a team like the Spurs might've gone after him.

Quote
Getting to training camp in condition to make a difference required work. Eating isnít nearly as much fun now for Jokic as it was back home in Serbia. Jokic likes flavor in his food, lots of it. And he likes food. Never was that more evident than when he arrived in Denver. He tipped the scales at 291 pounds, and had just turned 20 years old four months earlier. Even if he didnít get enough touches to put his full game on display in Las Vegas, his size was.

But a plan to lose the weight was already in place.

Quote
Jokicís agent, Misko Raznatovic, had designs on pulling him out of the draft. On June 16, Raznatovic even went so far as to tweet that Jokic would not be available to be selected.

ďNikola Jokic, 95, withdraw his name from the draft. He will play next year for Mega Vizura!Ē Raznatovic wrote.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 02:37:02 PM by Monkhouse »
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Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #41 on: July 20, 2018, 02:58:51 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I voted sort of.   Because he is a not a limit star like some of the others but lordly can he impact a game.   Some day his photo will be next to intangibles in the dictionary!

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #42 on: July 20, 2018, 02:58:56 PM »

Offline GratefulCs

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He was a miss.  In a redraft he doesn't go 6 or better and probably doesn't even go in the top 10.  He is a fine player and will have a fine career, but whether a draft pick hits or misses depends entirely on the draft and said player's position in the draft (his draft position compared to his re-draft position).  In that Smart was a miss.
can you list your re draft?

i'm genuinely curious

i think he's good at 6

obviously jokic goes higher....but who else?

I trust Danny Ainge

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #43 on: July 20, 2018, 03:03:17 PM »

Offline GratefulCs

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i looked at the draft list and i think he's the 6th best pick


embiid, jokic, wiggins, capela, maybe aaron gordon, maybe saric


then smart

and i'm being kind of generous here to the other players

I trust Danny Ainge

Re: So, after all is said and done, is Marcus a "hit" draft pick
« Reply #44 on: July 20, 2018, 03:04:15 PM »

Offline greece666

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@monkhouse my point was simpler than this

only compare a pick to picks in a similar range.