Poll

overpaid or underpaid?

overpaid
18 (23.4%)
seems about right
56 (72.7%)
underpaid
3 (3.9%)

Total Members Voted: 77

Author Topic: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?  (Read 1871 times)

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Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #45 on: July 19, 2018, 07:02:45 PM »

Offline Future Celtics Owner

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TP for answer....
When is the earliest the cba allows us to trade Smart?

Edit: Im pretty sure its Jan. 15th
tp thanks thats what i thought.

Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #46 on: July 20, 2018, 11:36:57 AM »

Offline Big333223

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I want to hear more about this $500,000 bonus for body fat weigh ins. Is that a per-year bonus?

That would mean a full $2 million depends on Marcus being in as good of shape as he can be.
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Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #47 on: July 20, 2018, 11:46:41 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Also worth mentioning Horford will be off his contract after next season and I would be a bit surprised if he was back here for anything more than half his current contract. Honestly I think Horford would be thrilled with a 3 year 36 at age 34. If not, we would have someone cheaper there.
If Horford is opting out he's not getting less than 20 million AAV on whatever new deal he signs. I'd guess more along the lines of $25 million.

Frankly the AAV will depend on the length of the deal.  $12/mil per year is obviously way too low barring a huge meltdown this year, but the high teens is not as crazy if its a 5-year deal.
I don't see him opting out of 30 million to sign a 5 year deal that only pays him in the teens myself.

I think the C's would love that though as it'd really make life easier on them.
why, what is the real difference between 1 year 30 million, followed by 4 years, 60 million or just signing a 5 year 90 million contract.  Obviously more money up front, but way more long term security if you opt out and do the 5 year contract.  What if he opts in and gets hurt?  Or his play trails off? Or the market isn't that strong?  He might be looking at a short term small dollar extension following that 30 million year.  There is a lot of risk.  Why wouldn't he consider locking in a long term contract for very nice money, but that also does the team a solid. 

Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #48 on: July 20, 2018, 12:47:58 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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I want to hear more about this $500,000 bonus for body fat weigh ins. Is that a per-year bonus?

That would mean a full $2 million depends on Marcus being in as good of shape as he can be.

It is per year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/marcus-smart-15358/

Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #49 on: July 20, 2018, 04:12:00 PM »

Offline RodyTur10

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Lets analyze this.

Smart signed for $52 million contract over 4 years, which is $13 million a year.

What if Smart had taken the QO and his total earnings would have been the same?

Salary year 1: $6 million
Salary year 2-4: $15,3 million

Basically the Celtics signed him at a 46/3 contract, since he had no other offers. But there is risk involved for both parties.

For Smart there was a chance he could have gotten a better contract next year, but now he has certainty of a new contract. With the serious injury risks for basketball players I would easily estimate the risk at 25%. Which means that the guaranteed additional $46 million is roughly the same valuewise as possibly getting a 57/3 contract next summer ($19 millon year). Thus more or less an insurance pay of $11 million.

For the Celtics there was an opportunity to wait it out till next season. There's a little risk in giving Smart a new contract already. However a player as an individual should be more risk averse than a franchise, since consequences for them are much greater when things go south. Therefore I only assign a 10% risk for the Celtics. Which means that the guaranteed $46 million is equivalent to about giving a 51/3 contract next summer ($17 million a year).

Of course my risk estimates are a little arbitrary and factors like personal relationships, tax implications and potential earnings after 4 years aren't taken into account. But in a vacuum my conclusions are as follows:

For Marcus Smart: if Marcus expected to get a contract offer next summer (for a duration of 3+ years) with a salary of more than $19 million a year he shouldn't have signed and otherwise it was a good deal for him.

For Boston Celtics: if Ainge and his staff expected that Smart would be offered a contract over $17 million a year it was a good deal, but otherwise they overpaid.

Personally I think that Smart would have gotten around $12 million, which makes this a clear overpay. The uniqueness of Smart makes it bareable. For Smart it's a superb deal, although him and his agent might really believe that a team would pay him $20+ million a year next season.
Idiot.

Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #50 on: July 20, 2018, 05:51:14 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I want to hear more about this $500,000 bonus for body fat weigh ins. Is that a per-year bonus?

That would mean a full $2 million depends on Marcus being in as good of shape as he can be.

It is per year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/marcus-smart-15358/

I love it. 4 more years of Skinny Marcus!
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Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #51 on: July 20, 2018, 05:51:43 PM »

Offline saltlover

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I want to hear more about this $500,000 bonus for body fat weigh ins. Is that a per-year bonus?

That would mean a full $2 million depends on Marcus being in as good of shape as he can be.

It is per year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/marcus-smart-15358/

I love it. 4 more years of Skinny Marcus!

Or cheaper Fat Marcus?
When an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.

Leviticus 19:33-34

Re: Smart's new contract: overpaid or underpaid?
« Reply #52 on: July 21, 2018, 04:18:18 PM »

Offline Big333223

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I want to hear more about this $500,000 bonus for body fat weigh ins. Is that a per-year bonus?

That would mean a full $2 million depends on Marcus being in as good of shape as he can be.

It is per year.

https://www.spotrac.com/nba/boston-celtics/marcus-smart-15358/

I love it. 4 more years of Skinny Marcus!

Or cheaper Fat Marcus?

TP
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