Author Topic: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?  (Read 4515 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline JSD

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12562
  • Tommy Points: 2155
In 2010, Ainge convinced Paul Pierce to opted out of his $21M/1 year contract and sign a $61M/4 years deal. Pierce took the long term money and gave the Celtics short-term flexibility, then they all sold it to the fan base as a "paycut", which technically it was. Rather brilliant marketing for the player as the Boston faithful ate it up. Now, does Ainge employ the same method with Horford? What would it take? After next season, Horford will have the option to pick up his $30M/1 year deal or decline it for a long term deal. What do you think that long term deal would look like? It would have to be significant enough to entice Horford to rip up $30M of guaranteed money. Would $75M/4 years get it done? How far would you go?


1. http://www.patriotledger.com/x2071996479/Celtics-Pierce-reportedly-becomes-unrestricted-free-agent
2. https://boston.sbnation.com/2010/6/29/1543785/paul-pierce-opt-out-free-agent-celtics-contract
The only color that matters is GREEN

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2018, 01:20:27 AM »

Offline tazzmaniac

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8113
  • Tommy Points: 549
Al leaving Atlanta started because they initially offered a few million less than his Max.  As long as Al is playing at the level he is, there is no way he accepts 4yr/75M.  Lowry got 3yr/100M. 



Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2018, 06:38:40 AM »

Offline JSD

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12562
  • Tommy Points: 2155
2 years from now, at age 34, what will his market value be? It’s tough to really know, but I think Horford would be happy to sign a $45 million/3 year deal.


That’s essentially what he’s doing here if he opted out and took what I’m proposing.
The only color that matters is GREEN

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2018, 06:43:55 AM »

Offline JSD

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12562
  • Tommy Points: 2155
Maybe if you’re the Celtics, you are just okay letting Horford walk after 2020. Maybe that’s the play here. I’m really trying to sort out how Ainge is going to pull off keeping all these guys
The only color that matters is GREEN

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2018, 06:53:18 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8825
  • Tommy Points: 289
There might be a few teams offering two year deals at max money if he opts out

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2018, 06:55:09 AM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533
I wouldn't sign Horford to a big contract in a year or 2.  Just won't be enough money to go around
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2018, 07:19:19 AM »

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
I expect Horford, if healthy, to opt out next year and sign the last contract of his career, for 4-5 seasons.  If we’ve made it to the finals or won a title, I also expect a discount to help keep the core together for the rest of his career.  If we’ve disappointed, I still expect an opt out, but maybe with less charity during negotiations.

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2018, 07:23:35 AM »

Offline gouki88

  • NCE
  • Red Auerbach
  • *******************************
  • Posts: 31552
  • Tommy Points: 3141
  • 2019 & 2021 CS Historical Draft Champion
I expect Horford, if healthy, to opt out next year and sign the last contract of his career, for 4-5 seasons.  If we’ve made it to the finals or won a title, I also expect a discount to help keep the core together for the rest of his career.  If we’ve disappointed, I still expect an opt out, but maybe with less charity during negotiations.
This is where I'm at too. Let's hope we raise #18 and he signs for cheaper
'23 Historical Draft: Orlando Magic.

PG: Terry Porter (90-91) / Steve Francis (00-01)
SG: Joe Dumars (92-93) / Jeff Hornacek (91-92) / Jerry Stackhouse (00-01)
SF: Brandon Roy (08-09) / Walter Davis (78-79)
PF: Terry Cummings (84-85) / Paul Millsap (15-16)
C: Chris Webber (00-01) / Ralph Sampson (83-84) / Andrew Bogut (09-10)

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2018, 08:16:27 AM »

Offline jambr380

  • K.C. Jones
  • *************
  • Posts: 13002
  • Tommy Points: 1756
  • Everybody knows what's best for you
It all comes down to how Horford wants to spend the rest of his career. Typically, contending teams don't have max contract space to give out for a borderline max guy like Horford - especially when he will be well into his 30s.

If he likes the continuity of playing for Brad and competing for championships, then he will give the Cs a [significant] discount on his current deal. If he wants to continue to make big money (and who can blame him if he does?), then he will have the option to sign one last break-the-bank contract with a lesser team and mentor their young players.

There is always the trade option with Al, which would allow a good team at or near the cap to offer him a max deal, but communication would have to be pretty open between him and management for that to occur.

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2018, 08:43:34 AM »

Offline tonydelk

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1845
  • Tommy Points: 467
I expect Al to opt out as well and I do not expect him to get a max contract.  I do expect him to get 20-23m per year for 3-4 years though.  No one is going to pay a 34/35 year old Al Horford 30m per year.  Also you have to take Kyrie into account.  Hey I'll resign but Al has to be here or I'm gone.  Not sure what kind of relationship they have but nothing surprises me anymore with NBA players. 


Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2018, 08:54:36 AM »

Offline LilRip

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6857
  • Tommy Points: 391
If we win a ring...will Al’s number go up the rafters?
- LilRip

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2018, 08:59:50 AM »

Offline saltlover

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12490
  • Tommy Points: 2619
If we win a ring...will Al’s number go up the rafters?

If he signs a second deal with us, I would expect so.

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2018, 09:27:43 AM »

Offline nebist

  • Jaylen Brown
  • Posts: 582
  • Tommy Points: 67
Would be awesome if we could negotiate that extension with declining numbers. To take your 4/75 deal.
Year 1: 25 mil
2: 20
3: 15
4: 15

Something like that I would imagine could help ease some future tax crunch b

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2018, 09:34:26 AM »

Offline Moranis

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 33461
  • Tommy Points: 1533
If we win a ring...will Al’s number go up the rafters?

If he signs a second deal with us, I would expect so.
I don't know about that.  I mean we could assume that if we win a ring with Al, he is at best the 3rd best player and maybe even 4th or 5th best.  Are we really going to put 3 numbers in the rafters for 1 ring?  What if at the time he is the 3rd best, still ahead of Tatum and Brown, but they both go on to a decade long career with peaks higher than Al.  Is that 1 ring going to get 5 numbers in the rafters?  At some point, Boston needs to stop putting everyone in the rafters.  It just cheapens it for those that are truly deserving.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: What 4 year deal would entice Horford to opt out and take a pay cut?
« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2018, 09:43:09 AM »

Offline ETNCeltics

  • NCE
  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2720
  • Tommy Points: 306
2 years from now, at age 34, what will his market value be? It’s tough to really know, but I think Horford would be happy to sign a $45 million/3 year deal.


That’s essentially what he’s doing here if he opted out and took what I’m proposing.

That may be true, but it's also an issue of pride. I doubt that he'll do that. Most wouldn't.