Author Topic: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer  (Read 4567 times)

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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #75 on: June 25, 2018, 12:09:45 PM »

Online jambr380

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We need Baynes. When the game gets physical and is on the line his size and physicality pays off.
For what he does, he's the best we have.

Also, he found himself a nice bailout 3pt shot last year.

I am a Baynes fan and am in favor of finding a way to keep him, but he is almost never in the game when it is 'on the line.'

If Smart really is a priority and the Cs plan to spend north of $10M/yr on him, then one of Baynes/Morris will probably go and we will pick up another serviceable 8th-9th level rotational player for the vet minimum. We all love the team we just saw in the playoffs, but with Kyrie, Hayward, and even Theis returning, we just don't need every single one of them anymore.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #76 on: June 25, 2018, 12:30:27 PM »

Offline action781

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Very dynamic situation.

1.  Who do the Celts prefer in a vacuum -- Baynes or Morris?  Baynes gives that frontcourt strength, but we also have Theis returning and now Williams in the mix.  Do you need more than 3 centers in a trending small NBA?  Morris gives you some shooting and defensive switchability at the 4, but his role will be chopped with Hayward's return and he's only here for one more year although we could resign him with bird rights without an extra season of luxury tax implications as opposed to Baynes (we'll be going into tax already next offseason).  If the answer to that is Morris, than Baynes is gone.

2.  If we prefer Baynes, can we trade Morris to make it happen?  Since we cannot take salary back in a trade for him, what teams under the cap or with an exception have interest in him?  Maybe not too difficult, but a limitation of some degree.

3.  Even if trading away Morris, will Smart + Baynes fit under the tax?  Amir Johnson got 1 year $11 mil when he left Boston in a very similar role.  Are we sure a team like Brooklyn who wants to save cap space for 2019 won't offer Baynes something like that?  Or more?  If Philly doesn't land a max contract, they would certainly offer him something like that just to keep him away from us I'd think.  Basically, I'm not sure Baynes is going to accept this $5-8M figure everyone assumes he's going to take.  Lots of teams with money (ATL, BKN, DAL, LAC if Jordan leaves, LAL, PHI) could use a center.

Since all 3 of those things have to be true/work out for Baynes to come back, I'd say the likelihood of him returning is less than 50%.
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 12:52:42 PM by action781 »
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #77 on: June 25, 2018, 12:43:41 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Morris gives you some shooting and defensive switchability at the 4, but his role will be chopped with Hayward's return and he's only here for one more year although we could resign him with bird rights without luxury tax implications as opposed to Baynes (we'll be going into tax already).

I’m not following what you mean here.  By implications, do you mean a binary “do we pay or not?”  Otherwise, signing Morris would definitely have some tax implications, as he’d push us pretty far into the tax next year, presumably.


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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #78 on: June 25, 2018, 12:51:24 PM »

Offline action781

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Morris gives you some shooting and defensive switchability at the 4, but his role will be chopped with Hayward's return and he's only here for one more year although we could resign him with bird rights without luxury tax implications as opposed to Baynes (we'll be going into tax already).

I’m not following what you mean here.  By implications, do you mean a binary “do we pay or not?”  Otherwise, signing Morris would definitely have some tax implications, as he’d push us pretty far into the tax next year, presumably.

Sorry, I mean for repeater status (will edit the post), so yes the binary implication.  The big reason why we don't want to pay tax this year is not to avoid a few extra million bucks, but rather to avoid the season of tax paying which will get us into repeater rates a season earlier.  We're going to be paying tax at some point eventually and it will probably be 2019 with Kyrie due a new contract that offseason.  So extending Morris has no affect on being the single push into a season of tax paying while extending Baynes now does.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #79 on: June 25, 2018, 01:01:20 PM »

Offline JHTruth

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

I think his upside is probably as a borderline rotation player.

I would put it a little higher than that, and he does have some unique traits at his size - though his downside is bleak because of the likelihood that his feet won’t last.

Early in the season it looked like he might turn into a monster on the offensive board, but a bigger sample size washed that out. Big hands, good handles at his size - but doesn’t have much aptitude (so far) for making a play. Shoots with range but the results (so far) are below average. The defensive rebounding (so far) is substandard.

He needs something he can hang his hat on.

Can’t be optimistic about his long-term future in Beantown.

He's not nearly as athletic as I thought he might be. He's basically Big Baby without the post moves..

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #80 on: June 25, 2018, 01:34:44 PM »

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #81 on: June 25, 2018, 01:47:31 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.

We have similar clues about Smart.  From interviews with Brad and Marcus last week:

Quote
“Everybody in the building would tell you we would love to have Marcus back,” Stevens told Murphy. “Marcus has been great here — a big part of our DNA when you look at what we want to bring to the table competitively every night. He makes guys better on both ends of the floor, he covers up for guys on defense. As high a level defender entering the league as I’ve ever seen.

“He’s going to keep getting better, and you want guys like that around. We’ll see how it all plays itself out.”


Quote
A team source said the Celtics want to bring back Marcus Smart and keep Terry Rozier for added depth and being a fully loaded roster next season, where they will be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

Quote
Does Marcus Smart think he will be a Celtic next season?

“Honestly, I do,” Smart told reporters at Brandeis University Wednesday.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #82 on: June 25, 2018, 01:52:06 PM »

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I would offer Baynes 5.3m per year for 2 year deal and Smart a 3 year/39 million dollar deal.

If a Kahwi Leonard becomes available, we could consolidate assets by trading Smart 13m, Jaylen Brown 4.7m, and Morris 5m, plus draft picks.

If the Leonard trade doesn't happen, our team is still STACKED and ready to compete for a title run!

I'm not giving Smart $13m!  He's MLE material, no more!

I think we match up to $15 per.

I hope not! That would be the end of what Danny has built. Once you give a guy that will struggle to get more than 15 mpg next season if everyone is healthy that kind of money than who do you lose in the future? KI, Brown, Tatum? You can't pay everyone big money it just doesn't work. If Smart gets eight figures from the C's this off season than I know Rome is burning!

I'm curious why you think Smart's minutes will be cut in half when the team hasn't added anyone to the roster who plays the same position.

Not sure if this got answered, but basically with the return of Kyrie and Gordon, and the emergence of Rozier and Brown, that's 4 players already who arguably are ahead of Smart for minutes at the 1 & 2.

If Smart is 3rd string at both positions, it's hard to see how he gets as many minutes as prior seasons.    Now, this same squeeze was facing him going into last year, and it didn't happen because Gordon got injured right away and then Kyrie got injured late in the year.   But assuming everyone is healthy, and assuming Brad doesn't push Rozier back to behind Smart in the rotation, if anything, the squeeze looks even tighter on Smart's minutes this year.

If Smart is effectively now a 3rd string PG/SG on this roster, however versatile he may be at filling either, it's hard to argue paying more than Mid Level money for him.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #83 on: June 25, 2018, 02:01:38 PM »

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.

We have similar clues about Smart.  From interviews with Brad and Marcus last week:

Quote
“Everybody in the building would tell you we would love to have Marcus back,” Stevens told Murphy. “Marcus has been great here — a big part of our DNA when you look at what we want to bring to the table competitively every night. He makes guys better on both ends of the floor, he covers up for guys on defense. As high a level defender entering the league as I’ve ever seen.

“He’s going to keep getting better, and you want guys like that around. We’ll see how it all plays itself out.”


Quote
A team source said the Celtics want to bring back Marcus Smart and keep Terry Rozier for added depth and being a fully loaded roster next season, where they will be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

Quote
Does Marcus Smart think he will be a Celtic next season?

“Honestly, I do,” Smart told reporters at Brandeis University Wednesday.

Subtle difference in wording there regarding the Celtics' positions.   The source in the Baynes' tweet used the words " We still intend to".   The Stevens quote you provided regarding Smart used words "we would love to".   Heck Stevens provided even a layer of indirection by putting it on "Everyone in the building" to say.  And then gives himself an out with "We'll see how it all plays out."

Okay, parsing these fragments too finely is probably overkill. 

 I just am not yet convinced that Smart coming back is all that much of a done deal.   I would be very disappointed if Danny signs him for a significant deal (which has LT ramifications in future years, not just this one) given that his role seems destined to be squeezed by the current roster, if healthy.   If he can be signed on the cheap, in accordance with being a bench player, sure.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #84 on: June 25, 2018, 02:27:21 PM »

Offline saltlover

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didn’t mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

Here’s the actual tweet:

Quote
Keith Smith
Verified account
@KeithSmithNBA

Source: Drafting of Robert Williams has no impact on the Celtics intention to re-sign Aron Baynes. "We still intend to have Aron back in Boston and he's told us this is where he wants to be."

7:35 PM - 21 Jun 2018

That sounds like the Celts have a plan to bring him back.

I don’t doubt that, and in this I’m not arguing that Williams is any kind of obstacle to Baynes.  But unless and until they trade Morris, which might be more difficult than the prevailing wisdom says it should be for a veteran rotation wing on an affordable contract, they are lacking the space to bring back Baynes.

I think the problem I have with your argument is that it is based on the premises:

1) That they WILL sign Smart.
2) That they are unlikely to move Morris.
3) That they will not want to go over the LT threshold in order to also retain Baynes.

The first two are shaky because (1) it's not necessarily in their control if Smart gets a large offer in FA and (2) Morris' contract is pretty easy to move if they decide and he plays a position of surplus on this team.

Of the three, I think (3) is perhaps the strongest premise, but even that isn't 100% solid.  And it only becomes a relevant premise if both the other two hold true.

So far, we have strong clues that the Cs are at least intending to retain a relationship with Baynes (the Tweet right after the draft plus the fact that he will rep the Cs at the NBA awards ceremony).   We don't, at the moment have any similar expressions coming from the Cs regarding either Marcus, though I'm sure if someone asked they'd say the right things.

We have similar clues about Smart.  From interviews with Brad and Marcus last week:

Quote
“Everybody in the building would tell you we would love to have Marcus back,” Stevens told Murphy. “Marcus has been great here — a big part of our DNA when you look at what we want to bring to the table competitively every night. He makes guys better on both ends of the floor, he covers up for guys on defense. As high a level defender entering the league as I’ve ever seen.

“He’s going to keep getting better, and you want guys like that around. We’ll see how it all plays itself out.”


Quote
A team source said the Celtics want to bring back Marcus Smart and keep Terry Rozier for added depth and being a fully loaded roster next season, where they will be the favorites to win the Eastern Conference.

Quote
Does Marcus Smart think he will be a Celtic next season?

“Honestly, I do,” Smart told reporters at Brandeis University Wednesday.

Subtle difference in wording there regarding the Celtics' positions.   The source in the Baynes' tweet used the words " We still intend to".   The Stevens quote you provided regarding Smart used words "we would love to".   Heck Stevens provided even a layer of indirection by putting it on "Everyone in the building" to say.  And then gives himself an out with "We'll see how it all plays out."

Okay, parsing these fragments too finely is probably overkill. 

 I just am not yet convinced that Smart coming back is all that much of a done deal.   I would be very disappointed if Danny signs him for a significant deal (which has LT ramifications in future years, not just this one) given that his role seems destined to be squeezed by the current roster, if healthy.   If he can be signed on the cheap, in accordance with being a bench player, sure.

Parsing out the Stevens quote is my entire point about the lack of nuance in a quote attributed to an unnamed source that can fit in a single tweet, as we have with Baynes.  There’s certainly nuance involved in both.  That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #85 on: June 25, 2018, 02:48:51 PM »

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That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #86 on: June 25, 2018, 04:02:19 PM »

Offline action781

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That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #87 on: June 25, 2018, 04:10:21 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Baynes is the only guy we have that can guard really big center well.  I mean the big strong seven foot types.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #88 on: June 25, 2018, 04:49:31 PM »

Online mmmmm

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That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.

My "claim" is based on THIS roster.

The trend on THIS roster has been that Rozier got the starts and the minutes over Smart when Kyrie went down.  Rozier played 2048 total minutes this season compared to 1614 for Smart.   In the playoffs, Rozier played 696 total minutes (36.6 per game) compared to 449 (29.9) for Smart.   Some of the difference is due to Rozier simply staying healthier, but in games they played together, the trend was still clear.   As the year progressed, before Kyrie was injured, Smart's minutes per game declined steadily from 31.1 in Nov, to 30.6 in Dec, 28.2 in Jan & 24.2 in Feb before bouncing back up to 31.0 in March after Kyrie was lost.  Right now, Rozier is ahead of Smart on the depth chart -- especially at the 1.

At the 2, Smart might get the nod over Rozier, but does he get the nod over Gordon Hayward or Jaylen Brown?   I don't think so.

On some other roster, Smart might be a starter or the 3rd guard in a 3-guard rotation again.   For example, one team that is rumored interested in him is Dallas, where he would be a defensive complement off the bench behind Smith and Doncic.  In addition to providing defense that neither of those guys can provide, he'd provide veteran experience against their youth.   In that roster, he would have the same role and perhaps more importance that he had in previous Celtic rosters.

The rumor is Dallas is trying to find somewhere to move Matthews' contract so they can make an offer for Smart.  Given that he's from Texas (in fact from just outside Dallas), don't be surprised if that looks appealing to him.

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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #89 on: June 25, 2018, 04:51:08 PM »

Offline kozlodoev

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That said, ultimately I would be very surprised to see Marcus elsewhere next season.  Restricted free agency is a powerful tool, especially in a very tight free agency market.

Smart's QO will be $6M.  If he plays for that, then it's a no-brainer he stays.   But there's a line somewhere above that where you have to stop and ask if that's worth paying for a guy who looks more and more like the 3rd-string bench player at both of his positions.   How much are YOU willing to pay him?

Between Kyrie, Rozier and Smart, how many minutes do you think Smart is likely to get at the 1?

Between Jaylen, Hayward, Rozier & Smart , how many minutes do you thin Smart is likely to get at the 2?

Smart has in the past gotten extra minutes when we used to put 3-guard small lineups, playing at the 3.   In a roster that now has Hayward, Jason, Jaylen, Semi and Morris (ignoring guys like Nader and Bird), how many minutes is he likely to get at the 3?

There is a very real possibility that this roster (if healthy) can't (or at least shouldn't) give Smart more than ~12-15 minutes per game.  Or even less.    How much are you willing to pay for that kind of player?

Now, obviously, further moves (such as a Rozier or Morris trade) or injury would change the roster and the answers to these questions.   But given the roster as it currently looks, I see a real squeeze on Smart's role on this team.

Saltlover gave a minutes breakdown in the OP:
Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

While Kyrie and Hayward deserve more minutes, remember they are returning from injuries.  If you do want to give them a few more, I think they come from Rozier and Morris while Smart stays around 25.  Smart just provides you so much on the court that nobody else can provide.  And while that totals 240, you will often see rotational players minutes on any team total far more than 240 since players pick up extra minutes when guys are injured.

And Marcus looks nothing like a 3rd-string bench player -- that's an outrageous claim.  If he did, then he won't be able to sign an offer sheet anywhere near his reported price tag.
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