Author Topic: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer  (Read 4014 times)

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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #15 on: June 24, 2018, 12:10:32 PM »

Offline footey

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that thereís mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morrisí trade value. At worst, itís neutral, but Iíve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #16 on: June 24, 2018, 12:15:49 PM »

Offline footey

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The Celtics have two key free agents in Smart and Baynes.  Despite the consternation this will likely cause some on this board, Smart will be the top priority of those two.  With a shade under $13 million of room under the projected tax assuming no trades, it seems difficult to see the Celtics winding up under the tax while keeing both.  (This would be feasible if Smart signed his qualifying offer, but while that is possible, it wouldnít occur until late in the free agency process, by which time Baynes would likely be off the market).

Of course, the Celtics could go above the tax to keep both, but why should they do that?  Assuming Baynes walks, hereís a conservative minutes distribution for the top 9 in the rotation:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

Thatís 240 minutes.  And while I understand that players get hurt, and you obviously need to plan for that to a degree, thatís taken care of a little bit already in these assumptions.  If a starter goes down, about 12 of his minutes will get redistributed to the other starters, 5 will be given to Smart, and the rest can be given to some combination of the developmental youth (Semi, Yabusele, and Williams).  If a second starter goes down, most of the minutes can still be given to Rozier, Morris, and Theis, before also being given to developmental players (also notice that I am not counting Nader as a developmental player, so donít worry.  Bird might get a look in the two-injury scenario.)

Really, if you keep Baynes, it means youíre moving Theis out of the everyoneís healthy rotation.  And while Baynes is probably a little better, Theis was pretty good last year, and the difference is so marginal that it wouldnít seem worth it to go into the tax to very slightly upgrade those 15-20 minutes Theis will get.  It also means youíve further clogged some of those developmental minutes, which could be short-sighted if we hope that one of Yabusele or Williams becomes a rotational big by a year from now.

So barring any sort of trades, it seems most likely that Baynes will find himself on another team next year.  We donít need his minutes, and as heíd put us into the luxury tax, heís truly a luxury item.  If Morris is traded, then certainly a spot opens for Baynes both in the rotation and on the books.  This makes sense if the Celtics can get back some sort of future draft asset, but not if the Celtics need to give up an asset to move him.  However, given the cap and tax situation with most contenders, there might not be a market for Morris, so the safest assumption is that he will return.  (And again, Nader is worthless, but moving his salary wonít create space for Baynes unless Smart comes in at around $10 million for next season, which would be $1-3 million lower than expected.  So Nader gets to stay.)

If we trade Morris for 2nd rounder, which is about all we can expect, I see an increase in Theis' minutes. Also you make no minutes allocation for Semi; he's good for up to 10 minutes a game. Also hoping to see some minutes for Yabu. I will be shocked if Morris is not traded before season starts.

If he is not, then it is probably because Hayward will need time to transition into the lineup.  Hope the removal of the plates solves the pain he experienced in back of his foot.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #17 on: June 24, 2018, 12:18:20 PM »

Online saltlover

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In this Baynes-less scenario, are we not expecting Williams to get regular minutes during the regular season? Given his likely role as a rim-protecting/rolling and rebounding big man that wonít be expected to score outside of lobs and putbacks, I think you could see him play 10-15 minutes a game in the regular season, especially given that we will likely have fewer close, competitive games this season with quite a few blowouts.

I see him playing a role like Jordan Bell played this past year in GS. Even within our system, itís still probably a bit too ambitious to try and get away with only playing two true bigs in your rotation, especially since neither Horford nor Theis are traditional bigs.

We arenít explicitly, but implicitly we are, since I think we can count on there being room for him to get those 10-15 minutes due to an injury or rest in at least 75% of games.
ďWhen an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.Ē

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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #18 on: June 24, 2018, 12:22:14 PM »

Offline Eddie20

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No way. With the amount of scorers we have on our team, Morris' contributions to the team are greatly minimized. We are going to need Baynes a lot more than iso-Morris and his bad shot selection.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #19 on: June 24, 2018, 12:23:56 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that thereís mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morrisí trade value. At worst, itís neutral, but Iíve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

Agreed. Worst case scenario is either sending him to a team with cap space that wants a vet or a SF, or sending him to a contender in a three team trade with the contender sending the third team something in return for them taking on someone else with a ~$5 million contract
I'm bitter.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #20 on: June 24, 2018, 12:30:18 PM »

Offline BitterJim

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No way. With the amount of scorers we have on our team, Morris' contributions to the team are greatly minimized. We are going to need Baynes a lot more than iso-Morris and his bad shot selection.

Yeah. Morris was important last season, when we couldn't be sure if Tatum and Brown were ready for big roles (and, obviously, when Hayward went down, but we didn't bring him in to be injury insurance), but with both of them stepping up big time last season there's just no place for him.

I'd love to bring back the whole rotation, but if I had to choose between Morris and Baynes I'm taking Baynes 10 times out of 10
I'm bitter.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #21 on: June 24, 2018, 12:37:25 PM »

Offline Scintan

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From what's been said and reported, we know, or at least "know", that:

  • The team wants Baynes back.
  • Baynes wants to return.
  • Morris doesn't know if he'll fit in next year.

I'm with Morris on this.   I don't see where he fits on the team next year, if Hayward's healthy.

Baynes
Williams
Theis
Horford
Hayward
Tatum
Brown
Irving
Smart
Rozier

Is already a 10-deep rotation, and that's not even all the players who can expect minutes.  I just don't see where there's room, or a style fit, for a rotational chucker on the wing. 


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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #22 on: June 24, 2018, 12:37:31 PM »

Offline JBcat

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No way. With the amount of scorers we have on our team, Morris' contributions to the team are greatly minimized. We are going to need Baynes a lot more than iso-Morris and his bad shot selection.

Yep, with Hayward coming back Morris is less of a need, and more of a luxury. 

I read on Boston sports journal which has some really good info there where they projected trade values of players by asking around the league.  Morris was projected to have a first round value in the 16-24 range.  If thatís true we may be able to get a Clippers like protected first round pick in the future. 

For roster management if we wanted to sign Howard AND Baynes with Hayward coming back on the roster, and Williams on board we could trade Morris, not re-sign Monroe, Nader, and Larken.  So itís possible.  I was thinking if we could stash Williams overseas for a year as heís unlikely to make a big impact his rookie year it can bring more roster flexibility.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #23 on: June 24, 2018, 12:39:42 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that thereís mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morrisí trade value. At worst, itís neutral, but Iíve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

You're giving up too quickly on Yabu, Roy.  Give him another season.

I think his upside is probably as a borderline rotation player.



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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #24 on: June 24, 2018, 12:49:27 PM »

Offline PAOBoston

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I'm for keeping Morris.

1. The uncertain health/status of Hayward. We really don't know what he is going to look like. He would be good backup just in case. As we saw last year, you never know with injuries. And for 5 mil per as an expiring deal, Morris is a goo value.

2. With how the Cs play, I believe you can never have enough quality wings. They basically play with 3 wings on the floor so loosing a guy who can defend/score seems counter productive, especially considering that beating GS/HOU is probably the ultimate goal.

3. Morris brought a sense of cockiness/toughness to this team that they lacked in previous year. Thought it was a positive for the team and I think it played a large role in creating their identity last year.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #25 on: June 24, 2018, 01:04:11 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I think it's quite feasible that we start the season in the luxury tax and make a move later down the line to get back out (likely trading Morris or Yab).

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #26 on: June 24, 2018, 01:10:55 PM »

Online saltlover

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that thereís mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morrisí trade value. At worst, itís neutral, but Iíve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.

1. Mutual interest does not mean that he returns.  It means depending on the Celtics tax situation and the other offers Baynes gets.  There was mutual interest with Olynyk last year, but it didnít mean he was the top priority, and when the Celtics were able to sign their top priority, there was no longer room for KO.

2. Those are all good reasons to want him back, but none of them make him a necessity.  Haywardís return is going to lead to a lot of 1-big lineups, as is Irvingís return combined with Rozierís continued growth.  Meanwhile, Horford has played the substantial majority of his minutes at the 5 for years, dating back to his time with Millsap and before that Smith in Atlanta.  He can handle it.

3.  While Morris should have positive trade value, there are ultimately few potential matches.  Here are the five teams that are nominally playoff (not title) contenders and could absorb Morris through cap room or a trade exception and not go into the luxury tax:  Charlotte, Indiana, Philadelphia, San Antonio, and Utah.  A couple of those are a bit of a stretch (Charlotte in terms of contention and Utah in terms of potential cap space).  Morris wonít be the top priority for any of those 5, and itís very easy to see all of them going in another direction.  Beyond that, maybe the Lakers if they miss out on their free agent targets and want to try to be more competitive while preserving cap room.  Otherwise you have to look for some sort of opportunity after a tax team creates enough excess space under the tax via salary dump so that Morris wouldnít put them back over, and that feels like something you canít rely on.

Meanwhile, dumping Yabu isnít going to get you very far unless Smart comes in pretty low this summer, and the cost to fill Naderís roster space is greater than his salary, so dumping him gets you nowhere unless moving Nader himself gets you the space to keep Baynes.
ďWhen an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.Ē

Leviticus 19:33-34

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #27 on: June 24, 2018, 01:13:20 PM »

Online saltlover

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I think it's quite feasible that we start the season in the luxury tax and make a move later down the line to get back out (likely trading Morris or Yab).

Doing so would put the Cís in the same spot as about 10 teams, with perhaps only 5 having the space to take on contracts.  Dumping Nader to get under is easy, but moving $5.4 million is not a given at the deadline this year.
ďWhen an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.Ē

Leviticus 19:33-34

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #28 on: June 24, 2018, 01:23:11 PM »

Offline timpiker

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My 2 cents based on ďwinning games ď:
#1 priority- Smart
#2 Baynes
#3 Morris

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #29 on: June 24, 2018, 01:46:11 PM »

Offline dreamgreen

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I like Morris's toughness we need that IMO. Can't overpay for Smart shooting guards that can't shoot are a dime a dozen! I'd take Baynes over Smart anytime with the current roster structure.