Author Topic: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer  (Read 3978 times)

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Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« on: June 24, 2018, 11:06:09 AM »

Offline saltlover

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The Celtics have two key free agents in Smart and Baynes.  Despite the consternation this will likely cause some on this board, Smart will be the top priority of those two.  With a shade under $13 million of room under the projected tax assuming no trades, it seems difficult to see the Celtics winding up under the tax while keeing both.  (This would be feasible if Smart signed his qualifying offer, but while that is possible, it wouldn’t occur until late in the free agency process, by which time Baynes would likely be off the market).

Of course, the Celtics could go above the tax to keep both, but why should they do that?  Assuming Baynes walks, here’s a conservative minutes distribution for the top 9 in the rotation:

Irving - 30
Brown - 30
Hayward - 30
Tatum - 30
Horford - 30
Smart - 25
Rozier - 25
Morris - 25
Theis - 15

That’s 240 minutes.  And while I understand that players get hurt, and you obviously need to plan for that to a degree, that’s taken care of a little bit already in these assumptions.  If a starter goes down, about 12 of his minutes will get redistributed to the other starters, 5 will be given to Smart, and the rest can be given to some combination of the developmental youth (Semi, Yabusele, and Williams).  If a second starter goes down, most of the minutes can still be given to Rozier, Morris, and Theis, before also being given to developmental players (also notice that I am not counting Nader as a developmental player, so don’t worry.  Bird might get a look in the two-injury scenario.)

Really, if you keep Baynes, it means you’re moving Theis out of the everyone’s healthy rotation.  And while Baynes is probably a little better, Theis was pretty good last year, and the difference is so marginal that it wouldn’t seem worth it to go into the tax to very slightly upgrade those 15-20 minutes Theis will get.  It also means you’ve further clogged some of those developmental minutes, which could be short-sighted if we hope that one of Yabusele or Williams becomes a rotational big by a year from now.

So barring any sort of trades, it seems most likely that Baynes will find himself on another team next year.  We don’t need his minutes, and as he’d put us into the luxury tax, he’s truly a luxury item.  If Morris is traded, then certainly a spot opens for Baynes both in the rotation and on the books.  This makes sense if the Celtics can get back some sort of future draft asset, but not if the Celtics need to give up an asset to move him.  However, given the cap and tax situation with most contenders, there might not be a market for Morris, so the safest assumption is that he will return.  (And again, Nader is worthless, but moving his salary won’t create space for Baynes unless Smart comes in at around $10 million for next season, which would be $1-3 million lower than expected.  So Nader gets to stay.)
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2018, 11:15:44 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Good post, but three quick points:

1. On draft night a Celtics source indicated that there’s mutual interest in a Baynes return;

2. Baynes is more a necessity than luxury. We need him for our defense, we need him to keep Horford fresh, and we need him for our chemistry;

3. I disagree on Morris’ trade value. At worst, it’s neutral, but I’ve got to think he has positive value. Morris, Nader and Yabu should all be on the block. Packaging them all along with $5 million would clear room for Baynes while opening up tax space and roster spots.


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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #2 on: June 24, 2018, 11:18:50 AM »

Offline Birdman

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Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes
C/PF-Horford, Baynes, Noel, Theis, Morris,
SF/SG- Tatum, Brown, Hayward, Smart, Semi, Clark
PG- Irving, Rozier, Larkin

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #3 on: June 24, 2018, 11:21:11 AM »

Offline PAOBoston

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Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per (basically 120% more than what he currently makes b/c of non bird rights) for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #4 on: June 24, 2018, 11:22:41 AM »

Offline PAOBoston

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Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes
GROSS

Howard is a loser. Keep that guy away from the Cs and their young guys.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #5 on: June 24, 2018, 11:23:16 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.

Yep. He’s very close with Hayward, Theis and Horford, and he’s the only guy on the roster with a ring.


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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #6 on: June 24, 2018, 11:33:31 AM »

Offline CelticD

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Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.

Yep. He’s very close with Hayward, Theis and Horford, and he’s the only guy on the roster with a ring.

Agreed. Kyrie has a ring too though.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #7 on: June 24, 2018, 11:43:13 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Fairly confident Baynes will be back. Twitter said Cs have interest in keeping Baynes and Baynes wants to be here. Also, Baynes is representing the Cs at the NBA award ceremony. Does that sound like someone who is leaving?

Cs will give this guy like 5.3 mil per for like 4 years and keep around. He's a great vet guy to keep at the end of the bench, especially now with young players like Williams on the roster.

Yep. He’s very close with Hayward, Theis and Horford, and he’s the only guy on the roster with a ring.

Agreed. Kyrie has a ring too though.

Brain spasm.


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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2018, 11:49:36 AM »

Offline otherdave

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Assuming Smart is indeed returning (for more than the qualifying offer), I would like to see:

Morris traded straight up for a future 2nd round pick (the sooner the better) and

Barnes brought back on a one year deal with an option for a second year.



There is always a conundrum with most rookies in the last 30 years, they aren't really ready to play, but how do you develop them if you don't play them?  I think Baynes on a longer term contract will really block Robert Williams development.


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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #9 on: June 24, 2018, 11:56:25 AM »

Offline MaxAMillion

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Rather have Dwight Howard than Baynes
The guy is hated wherever he goes...no thanks.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #10 on: June 24, 2018, 11:57:14 AM »

Offline PAOBoston

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Assuming Smart is indeed returning (for more than the qualifying offer), I would like to see:

Morris traded straight up for a future 2nd round pick (the sooner the better) and

Barnes brought back on a one year deal with an option for a second year.



There is always a conundrum with most rookies in the last 30 years, they aren't really ready to play, but how do you develop them if you don't play them?  I think Baynes on a longer term contract will really block Robert Williams development.
The G League is a way to have them develop when they cant get playing time in Boston.

Also, Theis is a FA next year and Horford has a player option next year too.

Big man position could look a lot differently next off season.

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #11 on: June 24, 2018, 11:57:48 AM »

Offline jpotter33

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In this Baynes-less scenario, are we not expecting Williams to get regular minutes during the regular season? Given his likely role as a rim-protecting/rolling and rebounding big man that won’t be expected to score outside of lobs and putbacks, I think you could see him play 10-15 minutes a game in the regular season, especially given that we will likely have fewer close, competitive games this season with quite a few blowouts.

I see him playing a role like Jordan Bell played this past year in GS. Even within our system, it’s still probably a bit too ambitious to try and get away with only playing two true bigs in your rotation, especially since neither Horford nor Theis are traditional bigs.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #12 on: June 24, 2018, 11:59:04 AM »

Offline kozlodoev

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Baynes isn't going anywhere. There's also no way Theis is getting 15 minutes of PT over Baynes.
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Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2018, 11:59:10 AM »

Offline jambr380

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On the face of it, I think it really does come down to Morris OR Baynes. With Hayward returning, that might make it more feasible to move on from Morris. However, with Horford projected to start at Center, having Baynes, Theis, and Williams off the bench playing primarily the same position might make Baynes more of a luxury.

Of course if Smart moves on and we sign a decent guard with the tax payer MLE, then we could comfortably keep both and also sign a solid vet min guy. I believe Smart will be the first domino to fall and everything else that occurs will revolve around that.

And, while Wyc has said he will pay essentially whatever it takes to field a true contender, I am sure Danny will make it a priority to stay under the tax line for this season if it is within a couple of million dollars.
« Last Edit: June 24, 2018, 12:11:00 PM by jambr380 »

Re: Why Baynes is likely the odd man out this summer
« Reply #14 on: June 24, 2018, 12:08:19 PM »

Offline footey

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Baynes will have more value for next year's squad than Morris, given the return of Hayward.

Williams will compete more for Theis' minutes, not Baynes' minutes. 

I'd just get rid of Morris.  Even if its just for a future, highly protected 1st round pick, or a 2nd round pick.  As cheap as his contract is, given the need not to go into luxury tax this coming season, send him to someone who has room just to get rid of him.

We have to re-sign Smart.  I think he is a must.