Author Topic: Russillo: Celtics Will "Aggressively" Try To Trade Into Top 10 Of Draft  (Read 4351 times)

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Online gouki88

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I anticipate an achingly dull Draft night. We'll all be here tomorrow discussing the awesomeness of Grayson Allen..
This seems like the most likely outcome.
I can’t wait!!

Offline CelticsElite

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league.  The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them.  The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen.  Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.

The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No  rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season.  Next season they don't.  They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking.  There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected. 

Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season.  The lottery odds break down as: 

#1 pick:         10.5%  reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick:    31.6% 
#6-#9 pick:    57.9% 

That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.

The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.
2nd in lottery

I like you conveniently forget the whole lottery that actually determines the order

Offline Phantom255x

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You know, it really doesn't feel like the Draft is even tomorrow night. Idk, felt like the last week just went by so fast (or maybe the Kawhi rumors kept me that much occupied). Anyways, literally anything can happen tomorrow night that I don't think I'm prepared for it (Blockbuster trades, trades within drafts, surprise players stock rising/falling, etc).

Tomorrow is definitely going to be a hectic day filled with rumors I imagine.
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Offline CelticsElite

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You know, it really doesn't feel like the Draft is even tomorrow night. Idk, felt like the last week just went by so fast (or maybe the Kawhi rumors kept me that much occupied). Anyways, literally anything can happen tomorrow night that I don't think I'm prepared for it (Blockbuster trades, trades within drafts, surprise players stock rising/falling, etc).

Tomorrow is definitely going to be a hectic day filled with rumors I imagine.
yea it’s crazy to imagine we will have probably 2 new players on our roster tomorrow. It’s gonna be a fun day

Offline Hawkeye199

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https://twitter.com/ryenarussillo/status/1009452550100156416?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

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Can never tell if teams are really trying to move up or everyone just calls each other to see what the action is. However, two teams that I’m hearing are the most aggressive to get in the top 10, Clippers and Celtics.

Do I think they will? Nope. Sounds like smokescreen.

My dream is one of Carter/Porter/JJJ (the first two could be there in the 6-10 range, not Jackson though who is likely a Top-4 pick now). Otherwise, I'm fine staying at #27 OR making a small trade up for DiVincenzo, Wagner or Spellman. Trading down for an early 2nd + future pick OR player is another option I wouldn't mind if someone falls maybe (or Ainge actually isn't high on the guys projected around #27).

I don't think this is a smoke screen because Kevin O'Connor said he was hearing rumblings about the Celtics wanting to move up in one of the ringers mock drafts. He also tweeted about the Celtics wanting to move up in the lottery. The guy I think the Celtics should get is Jarren Jackson jr. who's stock seems to be falling. I believe the top 5 in some order will be Ayton, Bagley, Doncic, Bamba and either Jackson Jr or Michael Porter jr.


The reason the Celtics are really willing to part with the Sacramento pick is the 2019 draft is supposedly not that good. This year's draft has good bigs.

I believe Ainge will be trying hard to trade up. Hopefully, it's not a Winslow situation all over again





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Offline tstorey_97

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After some aggression, the Celtics will trade out of the 27th pick and stash a later rounder...because?

They already have a potential championship roster that just needs to stay healthy. I'm gonna stay positive on this whole "potential championship roster thing", I know it brings the entertainment value of this year's draft down a notch, but, it is the purpose...right? Having such a stacked roster you're tryin' to come up with creative ways to...you know...get out of the draft?

Offline CELTICSofBOSTON

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Something like Rozier and 27 for #12 and then #12 and the Grizzlies Pick for like #9 if Wendell Carter (who is the 4th best prospect in this draft in my opinion) falls.

Maybe buy a high second rounder and take a potential back up guard there like Jevon Carter or Jalen Brunson.  It’s a deep draft all the way until like pick 40.

Offline Bobshot

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I think it's possible Ainge is after one of those bigs. I doubt it's Bomba. The rumor is Orlando's #6 could be had for Rozier and the Sac pick. Orlando needs a PG, and Rozier is a good fit.

Offline celticinorlando

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I will be shocked if Boston makes any kind of move.

Think they draft one of the following:

Okogie
Allen
Bruce Brown
Mo Wagner
Jacob Evans
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Online SparzWizard

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I think it's possible Ainge is after one of those bigs. I doubt it's Bomba. The rumor is Orlando's #6 could be had for Rozier and the Sac pick. Orlando needs a PG, and Rozier is a good fit.

So we can't look forward to the Kings' season next year?  :(

But if he can get one of Jackson/Doncic/Porter/Bagley/Carter/Bamba with the #6 pick that would be thrilling.

Offline action781

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year.  They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins.  They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose.  They simply don’t have the talent.  Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement.  Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record.  This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.

Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).

Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point.  At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall).  That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.

So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery.  But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record.  This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.

And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out.  The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy.  A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games.  Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway.  Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30.  So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total.  Or both.  Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th.  That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking.  They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.

That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10.  Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.

I agree with you on where the Sacramento pick could likely land in 2019.  What I see differently is the value of that pick.  If NBA GMs could draft Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett in this draft, where would they go?  I'd say somewhere in the 6-12 range (I'd probably take Porter over either of them).  The #3 guy (Reddish? Bol Bol? whoever) easily slides outside of the top 10.

The point is that the 2019 draft is expected to be significantly weaker than the 2018 draft.  Trading up into the 6-9 range in this draft could be equivalent in value to trading into the top 3 in the the 2019 draft.  Obviously its a risk as you don't know how Sac will turn out, but if you only look at draft picks, it's basically trading the best case scenario for the Sac pick into that valued guaranteed this season.  The Sac pick has numeric upside, but I don't think it has a lot of value upside.

Picks alone, I swap Sac pick for 2018 6-9 in a heartbeat.  Adding Rozier makes it a lot more difficult to stomach.  But if Danny *loves* a specific guy at #6-9, then it wouldn't surprise me.  Not crazy to imagine that #6-9 guy Danny loves + free agent backup PG > Sac pic + 1 season of Rozier where we get the #6-9 guy Danny loves on a 4 year rookie contract. 
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Offline LilRip

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I predict nothing happens but that there will be some sparks and excitingly build ups that will never come to fruition. If we end up with Bamba though, I think that’ll be really interesting. I’d trade Rozier and a 1st rounder for him.
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Online jpotter33

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http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/23858201/memphis-grizzlies-discuss-trading-no-4-pick-nba-draft

Givony reports that we’re one of 7 teams who are in discussions with Memphis about the 4th pick.

Don’t really see that occurring given that it’ll have to come with Parsons’ contract. Still think a Dallas, Orlando, or Chicago is more likely than Memphis. Would love to land a long-time big to replace Horford in Bamba or JJJ. Definitely willing to part with Rozier, the Sac pick, and a bit more to get there, though I’d hesitate throwing the Memphis pick in there, too.
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Offline wiley

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

I really think you’re overrating Sacramento, and/or not fully considering the lottery changes going into next year.  They were 7th (well, tied for 6tb with Chicago), but they were 8 games out of 10th, which would have been 30% more wins.  They’re very unlikely to get to the mid-30s in win totals even with no incentive to lose.  They simply don’t have the talent.  Furthermore, they had the 2nd-worst expected winning percentage based on point differential, and won 4 games more than expected by this measurement.  Sure, they could do that again, but more likely than not they’ll finish closer to their actual expected record.  This means that actual on-court improvement might not show up in the win column.

Secondly, with flattened lottery odds, teams will have a little less incentive to tank (they will still do so, but maybe not quite as blatantly, except perhaps with an 8th/9th place conference finish tradeoff in the East).

Given that, I think it’s borderline impossible the Kings will have any worse than the 9th lottery odds, and there’s considerable upside from that point.  At the 9th odds, the pick has a 16% chance to be 2-4, a 51% chance to be 9, a 26% chance to be 10, and a small chance to be worse (with most of those odds coming from Philly winning #1 overall).  That 2-4 odds is better than the odds we had if the Lakers had finished 6th this year.

So conservatively we have a 1/6 chance of getting a top 4 pick, with the most likely outcome in the second-third of the lottery.  But it’s not that aggressive an assumption to say the Kings improve a little on the court, but their luck reverts to the mean, and they finish with the 6th-worst record.  This brings a 28% chance at a 2-4 pick and a 59% chance at a 6-8 pick.

And then there’s always the chance the bottom drops out.  The Kings, again, had the 2nd-worst expected record last year, luckily won four extra games, AND were pretty healthy.  A number of their top players (Bogdan, WCS, Hield, Fox, Koufos) played at least 70 games.  Randolph played only 59, but at 36 that seems like a reasonable amount anyway.  Garrett Temple only played 65, but he’s also on the other side of 30.  So they could get more unlucky with injuries and see reduced performance, or unlucky with wins and see a reduced total.  Or both.  Honestly, I think the Kings are far more likely to be a bottom 5 team than they are 9th.  That’s not my green glasses, or my hatred of the Kings talking.  They just profile more like the 2015-2016 Nets more than they do the 2017-2018 Lakers.

That pick has too much upside, and it’s most likely floor is 10.  Adding that to Rozier and this year’s pick to move up to the 6-9 range is just too much.

I agree with you on where the Sacramento pick could likely land in 2019.  What I see differently is the value of that pick.  If NBA GMs could draft Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett in this draft, where would they go?  I'd say somewhere in the 6-12 range (I'd probably take Porter over either of them).  The #3 guy (Reddish? Bol Bol? whoever) easily slides outside of the top 10.

The point is that the 2019 draft is expected to be significantly weaker than the 2018 draft.  Trading up into the 6-9 range in this draft could be equivalent in value to trading into the top 3 in the the 2019 draft.  Obviously its a risk as you don't know how Sac will turn out, but if you only look at draft picks, it's basically trading the best case scenario for the Sac pick into that valued guaranteed this season.  The Sac pick has numeric upside, but I don't think it has a lot of value upside.

Picks alone, I swap Sac pick for 2018 6-9 in a heartbeat.  Adding Rozier makes it a lot more difficult to stomach.  But if Danny *loves* a specific guy at #6-9, then it wouldn't surprise me.  Not crazy to imagine that #6-9 guy Danny loves + free agent backup PG > Sac pic + 1 season of Rozier where we get the #6-9 guy Danny loves on a 4 year rookie contract.

I'll be ecstatic if the Celtics get Bamba....  Also a Doncic fan but he's a few spots higher probably and harder to reach.  But I'd take Bamba in any case, even if we traded all the way up to 3.

The Sac pick will only gain in value moving forward.  After a year of watching these guys play in college.  Hard to say how we'll feel next year about Nassir Little, Charles Bassey or Sekou Doumbouya. Those three guys interest me.  The better the guys perform and the higher the pick, the more chance we have of making a package for Anthony Davis, who will certainly remain Ainge's #1 target. 

Offline Rondo9

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If we could get Carter with Rozier, our 1st, and the Kings pick, I would do it.

I think the most likely outcome for the Sacto pick is 7-12 next year.

Why not get a comparable pick this year at a position of need? His floor seems pretty high - already has an NBA-ready body and some perimeter game, high BBIQ, willing defender. He might plug in for 10-15 minutes right away and be ready to replace Al in 2 years when (if we are lucky) Jaylen will have earned a fat contract.

Whoa, I’m a huge Wendell Carter fan, but the Kings pick is a bridge too far.  I think the Memphis pick is also too much.  The highest I’d go is Rozier, #27, and next year’s 1st with top-4 protection.
Not a chance the Sacramento pick isn't in play. It's the first of a few assets heading out if DA trades that far up.

Shouldn’t be with Rozier and this year’s pick already included, at least not for anything outside the top 5, which is where Carter projects to.

Are we allowed to add some more protections to the Kings Pick, like we give them that pick and make it protected 2-5 for US? Otherwise, I don't see a team like Orlando doing it unless the Kings Pick is included to be honest, or at least one of the Kings/Grizzlies Picks.

Nope, as already answered earlier today in the Luka Doncic thread.   :)

Ah okay, thanks. And I never checked that thread today so didn't know

I think people are overvaluing the Sacramento pick. If they hadn’t won the lottery this year, they would’ve picked what, 7th? While they might win the lottery again or decline, I don’t know we would expect that. They’re adding the second pick, and they have no incentive to tank. If they win even a few more games they could be 10th or 12th.

To me, Getting the seventh pick this year as a sure thing, and getting a guy we need, is pretty good value compared to the uncertainty of the Sacramento pic. The other thing that will make this pic hard to use, which I don’t think people are fully taking into account is the downside risk of Sacramento actually wins the lottery. A general manager who turns this year’s seven pick  into next years 25th or 26th is going to have some explaining to do. I am not sure what kind of protection we can offer – probably it would need to be an additional pick.

More than usual this past season there seems like there was a big cluster of bad teams at the bottom of the league.  The Kings only finished 6 games behind the worst team in the league, the Suns.  I wouldn’t be surprised if some of those teams like the Suns (with a healthy Booker), the Grizzlies (a healthy Conley), the Mavs, and Bulls leapfrog them.  The Kings aren’t really much different than the Hawks and Magic so anything can happen.  Also some of the vets that helped like Zach Randolph might move on to better teams.

The other thing people forget is that this years team was lycky. By next rating they were bottom 3, they won close,games at a huge rate relative to talent. Not a trend that likely to continue next year. If they more or less stand pat that will regress and they will be bad. As for their puck, im not worried. No  rookie this year is adding a big boost to winning.
The Kings had an incentive to lose this season.  Next season they don't.  They may be bottom 5 going into the all-star game but then the other bad teams are going to start tanking.  There is also the issue of the pick being #1 protected. 

Let's say the Kings finish 5th worst record next season.  The lottery odds break down as: 

#1 pick:         10.5%  reverts to Sixers pick likely to be mid 20s
#2-#5 pick:    31.6% 
#6-#9 pick:    57.9% 

That's just not that valuable of a pick at this point especially since everyone continues to say that next year's draft class doesn't look good at this point.

The kings will still stink regardless if they have an incentive to tank or not.
They stunk this year and only finished with the 7th worst record.

And they'll stink next year.