Author Topic: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?  (Read 1063 times)

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Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #15 on: June 18, 2018, 06:24:16 AM »

Offline Roy H.

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Itís semantics, but a guy isnít a top-20 guard if you exclude wings.

Second, advanced stats arenít always that accurate.

Guys Rozier beat in Win Shares: Klay Thompson, Goran Dragic, Donovan Mitchell, Gary Harris, John Wall

Guys on that list Rozier is better than:

We also learn that Darren Collison is a ďtop 10 guardĒ, which sounds wonky.


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Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #16 on: June 18, 2018, 06:46:05 AM »

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Top 20 PG = definitely. Not a top 20 guard but a top 20 PG. I am shocked by the number of people who think Rozier is only a bench player. He should be starting. Somewhere else (due to Kyrie). Unfortunately.

Rozier was special in the playoffs. He was a borderline top 10 PG. He has that talent. That potential. His floor leadership is sketchy but the rest of his game is strong enough to get him there.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #17 on: June 18, 2018, 06:46:28 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Stats are great but they are also used by folks like the OP to cherry pick and make a point.   I think Terry is a starting caliber PG but I also think that there should be a more in depth analysis than several cherry-picked stats.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #18 on: June 18, 2018, 06:51:01 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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he played like iit for stretches .

Gained consistency

Now he needs to sustain his better play , with fewer disappointment games.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #19 on: June 18, 2018, 08:13:26 AM »

Offline The Oracle

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How is this player remotely close to being a top 20 guard.

1. Had a well below average TS of 52% (ranks 75th on OP's list) 53.8% in the playoffs.
2. Still has weak/poor court vision and is not a high level shot creator for his teammates.
3. Shot 50% in the regular season in the restricted area which is 2nd worst among all players
    (178) that attempted at least 150 shots in the res. area, only Lonzo was worse.  Rozier was
    51.7% in the playoffs.
4. Is undersized and is problematic on switches, poor at fighting over screens and doesn't
    create a high volume of turnovers etc..

Using OP's criteria I would place him somewhere between 45th and 50th.  If you add in the other wings not included in the OP he would fall to like 65th-70th.  If you add in the better guards/wings that were injured and didn't play 1000 minutes this year (Hayward, Beverly, Conley, Leonard, Thomas...) Rozier would fall somewhere around 75th.  Rozier no matter where he plays would be in direct competition for minutes with all of the above.


Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #20 on: June 18, 2018, 10:19:48 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Just spit-balling, I'd take the following guards last year over Rozier: Irving, Westbrook, Curry, Harden, Lillard, Oladipo, Beal, Walker, McCullom, Mitchell, Thompson, Paul, Williams, Holliday, Lowry, and Dragic. That's 16 that were pretty clearly better last year.

Bledsoe, Murray, Schroeder, Harris, Evans, Smith Jr., Teague, Rubio, Dinwiddie, Collison, Lee, Bogdonavic (Sac), Hill, Mills, Reddick, Dunn, and Rondo are all probably in a similar tier to Rozier. Some are probably better and some are probably worse. Personally, I would take Rubio, Reddick, and G Harris over Rozier too. You could make the argument for others as well.

That doesn't include "guards" like DeRozan, Booker, Simmons, Lebron, Fournier, and George.

That also doesn't include Wall, Jackson, Brogdon, Bradley, and Russell who missed close to half the games. You could make the argument that Wall is more valuable in 41 games than Rozier in 82.

In other words, I think you could argue Rozier was in the 20-30 range last year, but not top 20.
« Last Edit: June 18, 2018, 10:55:40 AM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #21 on: June 18, 2018, 10:36:09 AM »

Offline fairweatherfan

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No, but he played like one at times in the playoffs, which is a pretty amazing get from your 3rd ballhandler and suggests he could get there in the next year or two.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #22 on: June 18, 2018, 12:16:03 PM »

Offline Big333223

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It’s semantics, but a guy isn’t a top-20 guard if you exclude wings.

Second, advanced stats aren’t always that accurate.

Guys Rozier beat in Win Shares: Klay Thompson, Goran Dragic, Donovan Mitchell, Gary Harris, John Wall

Guys on that list Rozier is better than:

We also learn that Darren Collison is a “top 10 guard”, which sounds wonky.

TP to Saltlover for the research and a good question.

The answer is no. The guys Roy listed show why this kind of comparison doesn't quite work and there are more names on that list that are more debatable but probably better than Rozier.

There's always going to be inherent problems comparing a backups to starters. But I think there are also problems with comparing Rozier's time as a starter to full time starters. Rozier took over as a starter in March. By that point in the season, most starters are in cruise control, looking to the playoffs (or their vacation) but Terry wasn't. Terry was looking to make the most of his time in the spotlight. He was energized. That changes how he played in those minutes in a way that probably isn't directly commutable to how he would play over a full regular season.

There are always lots of variables on the fringes that statistics don't find. I think this is a big example of one.
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Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #23 on: June 18, 2018, 12:31:48 PM »

Online Donoghus

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He was more than adequate last season and certainly exceeded my expectations.

However, I'm not trading away Kyrie & handing this kid the keys.

The gap btw the two is pretty significant.


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Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #24 on: June 18, 2018, 12:48:36 PM »

Online Erik

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Poor Klay Thompson. Always a statistical punching bag. He is my dream SG in our offense.

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #25 on: June 18, 2018, 01:00:13 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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Thanks saltlover...tp

I really like Rozier. He played out of his mind in the playoffs and what else can a team want?
Let's say he's the Celtic's back up PG next year and he actually has to start in the playoffs?

I suggest even Vegas won't adjust the spreads a great deal....they would adjust them though.

Statistically, he looks ok. Eye test, he looks great. I think Terry Rozier is always going to be stuck with "labels"....stylistically his game isn't as pretty as some PG's in his category and that hurts him. I just don't see him "starting for a contender."


Call me crazy, but he just finished "starting for a contender" and helped win a bunch of games. 

Re: Was Terry Rozier a top-20 guard last season?
« Reply #26 on: June 18, 2018, 01:19:36 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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Thanks saltlover...tp

I really like Rozier. He played out of his mind in the playoffs and what else can a team want?
Let's say he's the Celtic's back up PG next year and he actually has to start in the playoffs?

I suggest even Vegas won't adjust the spreads a great deal....they would adjust them though.

Statistically, he looks ok. Eye test, he looks great. I think Terry Rozier is always going to be stuck with "labels"....stylistically his game isn't as pretty as some PG's in his category and that hurts him. I just don't see him "starting for a contender."


Call me crazy, but he just finished "starting for a contender" and helped win a bunch of games.
I am gonna call you crazy because I have no idea why else you contradicted yourself
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