Poll

Ultimately would you trade 2018 8th pick for 2 seasons of Irving?

Yes
44 (74.6%)
No
10 (16.9%)
Only if Irving signs an extension
5 (8.5%)

Total Members Voted: 59

Author Topic: Ultimately would you trade 2018 8th pick for 2 seasons of Irving? (poll)  (Read 2482 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17155
  • Tommy Points: 1547
If we're playing this game we can't assume that we know we are only getting one playoff run with Kyrie. You have to assume the parties in the trade believe he may be available for two playoff runs.

With that calculus in mind, considering the rest of the talent the Celts had/have on the roster, you're basically asking if two potential Finals runs is worth a top 10 draft pick.  I say yes, especially given how much young talent the Celts already have and how many draft picks the Celts have in the pipeline even after the trade.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 35588
  • Tommy Points: -27753
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
If we're playing this game we can't assume that we know we are only getting one playoff run with Kyrie. You have to assume the parties in the trade believe he may be available for two playoff runs.

With that calculus in mind, considering the rest of the talent the Celts had/have on the roster, you're basically asking if two potential Finals runs is worth a top 10 draft pick.  I say yes, especially given how much young talent the Celts already have and how many draft picks the Celts have in the pipeline even after the trade.

Except the hypothetical presented suggests that you *do* know ahead of time, just like you know it’s the #8 pick and that Kyrie is leaving.


Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...

Offline Moranis

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19337
  • Tommy Points: 915
The number 8 pick?  Are you kidding me?  Have people looked at the history of that pick?

I would take Kyrie over any 3 of those picks.

Quote
2017 Frank Ntilikina, France – New York Knicks
2016 Marquese Chriss, Washington – Sacramento Kings
2015 Stanley Johnson, Arizona – Detroit Pistons
2014 Nik Stauskas, Michigan – Sacramento Kings
2013 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia – Detroit Pistons
2012 Terrence Ross, Washington – Toronto Raptors
2011 Brandon Knight, Kentucky – Detroit Pistons
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest – L.A. Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill, Arizona – New York Knicks
2008 Joe Alexander, West Virginia – Milwaukee Bucks
2007 Brandan Wright, North Carolina – Charlotte Bobcats
2006 Rudy Gay, Connecticut – Houston Rockets
2005 Channing Frye, Arizona – New York Knicks
2004 Rafael Araujo, BYU – Toronto Raptors
2003 T.J. Ford, Texas – Milwaukee Bucks
2002 Chris Wilcox, Maryland – L.A. Clippers
2001 DeSagana Diop, Oak Hill Academy (Va.) – Cleveland Cavaliers
2000 Jamal Crawford, Michigan – Cleveland Cavaliers

[dang] this list is terrible.  :o ;D

Yeah. Rudy Gay is by far the best guy on this list. Who's second? Jamal Crawford. I'd definitely rather have Kyrie for 2 years than Jamal Crawford for 7.
Sure but in the last 10ish years, Joakim Noah, DeMar DeRozan, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Andre Drummond have all been the 9th pick.  Going back further you get Amar'e Stoudemire and Andre Iguodala.  The last 3, #9 picks in the 90's were Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shawn Marion.  Recent #10 picks include CJ McCollum, Paul George, Brook Lopez as well as some solid players like Andrew Bynum, Austin Rivers, Brandon Jennings, and the still developing Thon Maker and Justice Winslow.  From 1998 to 2002, the 10th picks were Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, Keyon Dooling, Joe Johnson, and Caron Butler.  Some recent 11th picks include Myles Turner, Klay Thompson, and JJ Redick.  Heck even Domantas Sabonis looks like a solid player.

Just because teams flub the 8th pick doesn't mean there isn't generally a lot of talent available.

Obviously this is not an exact science. I think the point is just to show that a pick in that range is a crap shoot. Which it is.

If you're expanding to the 11th pick (going back to '00), you're talking about a pool of 68 players. Of the ones you mentioned, I'd say there are 9 players that are of the caliber of Kyrie. Other might think more or less but, for me, that means there's about a 13% chance of having a comparable player on the board. But then I'd have to know for sure who the best pick would be or if that player exists at all in the given draft I'm selecting from.

A good player can be gotten at #8 but it's unlikely. I'd rather have the certainty (health provided, but that's true of the draft pick as well) of a first overall caliber talent for 2 years.
Ah but in this scenario you would have the 8th pick for at least 5 years and most likely at least 8.  So even if the player isn't as good at his peak as Irving is, there is a strong argument that 8 years of that player is worth more than 2 years of Irving (especially when you factor in his injury and non-playing in the playoffs in at least 1 of those years - a year the team made the ECF without him).  So that is really the meat of the discussion. 

Offline Big333223

  • NCE
  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4641
  • Tommy Points: 441
The number 8 pick?  Are you kidding me?  Have people looked at the history of that pick?

I would take Kyrie over any 3 of those picks.

Quote
2017 Frank Ntilikina, France – New York Knicks
2016 Marquese Chriss, Washington – Sacramento Kings
2015 Stanley Johnson, Arizona – Detroit Pistons
2014 Nik Stauskas, Michigan – Sacramento Kings
2013 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia – Detroit Pistons
2012 Terrence Ross, Washington – Toronto Raptors
2011 Brandon Knight, Kentucky – Detroit Pistons
2010 Al-Farouq Aminu, Wake Forest – L.A. Clippers
2009 Jordan Hill, Arizona – New York Knicks
2008 Joe Alexander, West Virginia – Milwaukee Bucks
2007 Brandan Wright, North Carolina – Charlotte Bobcats
2006 Rudy Gay, Connecticut – Houston Rockets
2005 Channing Frye, Arizona – New York Knicks
2004 Rafael Araujo, BYU – Toronto Raptors
2003 T.J. Ford, Texas – Milwaukee Bucks
2002 Chris Wilcox, Maryland – L.A. Clippers
2001 DeSagana Diop, Oak Hill Academy (Va.) – Cleveland Cavaliers
2000 Jamal Crawford, Michigan – Cleveland Cavaliers

[dang] this list is terrible.  :o ;D

Yeah. Rudy Gay is by far the best guy on this list. Who's second? Jamal Crawford. I'd definitely rather have Kyrie for 2 years than Jamal Crawford for 7.
Sure but in the last 10ish years, Joakim Noah, DeMar DeRozan, Gordon Hayward, Kemba Walker, Andre Drummond have all been the 9th pick.  Going back further you get Amar'e Stoudemire and Andre Iguodala.  The last 3, #9 picks in the 90's were Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, and Shawn Marion.  Recent #10 picks include CJ McCollum, Paul George, Brook Lopez as well as some solid players like Andrew Bynum, Austin Rivers, Brandon Jennings, and the still developing Thon Maker and Justice Winslow.  From 1998 to 2002, the 10th picks were Paul Pierce, Jason Terry, Keyon Dooling, Joe Johnson, and Caron Butler.  Some recent 11th picks include Myles Turner, Klay Thompson, and JJ Redick.  Heck even Domantas Sabonis looks like a solid player.

Just because teams flub the 8th pick doesn't mean there isn't generally a lot of talent available.

Obviously this is not an exact science. I think the point is just to show that a pick in that range is a crap shoot. Which it is.

If you're expanding to the 11th pick (going back to '00), you're talking about a pool of 68 players. Of the ones you mentioned, I'd say there are 9 players that are of the caliber of Kyrie. Other might think more or less but, for me, that means there's about a 13% chance of having a comparable player on the board. But then I'd have to know for sure who the best pick would be or if that player exists at all in the given draft I'm selecting from.

A good player can be gotten at #8 but it's unlikely. I'd rather have the certainty (health provided, but that's true of the draft pick as well) of a first overall caliber talent for 2 years.
Ah but in this scenario you would have the 8th pick for at least 5 years and most likely at least 8.  So even if the player isn't as good at his peak as Irving is, there is a strong argument that 8 years of that player is worth more than 2 years of Irving (especially when you factor in his injury and non-playing in the playoffs in at least 1 of those years - a year the team made the ECF without him).  So that is really the meat of the discussion.

Right but the odds of landing one of those guys is still too prohibitive for me. You can even add into that that 2-3 years of any of these drafted players is likely going to be developmental years.
1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1986, 2008, 2019

Offline celticsclay

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9426
  • Tommy Points: 1025
I don't really know what to say to this thread. The cavs fan regularly discuss and accept the trade as a complete disaster. I can share their hundreds of pages threads crying about it over the last year including in the last couple of days. I feel like people got really invested in arguing it was a bad trade and now are trying to think of strange hypothetical in which we could somehow still lose a trade we clearly won. A lot of strange wasted energy...

Also, are other people also considering if Kyrie is in Cleveland right now Lebron is probably way more likely to stay there creating another tough path to contention for us for the next 5 years with Hayward, Horford and Tatum?
« Last Edit: June 14, 2018, 01:40:06 PM by celticsclay »

Offline PhoSita

  • NCE
  • Kevin Garnett
  • *****************
  • Posts: 17155
  • Tommy Points: 1547
If we're playing this game we can't assume that we know we are only getting one playoff run with Kyrie. You have to assume the parties in the trade believe he may be available for two playoff runs.

With that calculus in mind, considering the rest of the talent the Celts had/have on the roster, you're basically asking if two potential Finals runs is worth a top 10 draft pick.  I say yes, especially given how much young talent the Celts already have and how many draft picks the Celts have in the pipeline even after the trade.

Except the hypothetical presented suggests that you *do* know ahead of time, just like you know it’s the #8 pick and that Kyrie is leaving.

I don't see the point of the hypothetical. The deal has already been made so why ask questions based on info that wasn't available at the time the deal was made?

I agree that the fact that kyrie is leaving and that the pick is number eight are also things the parties didn't know at the time of the deal. But I think the value of the pick is something the parties can reasonably estimate.

As for Kyrie leaving, I think it's interesting to entertain the idea of whether the trade would make sense if the parties knew going in that he would likely leave. Teams consider deals like that all the time.

Anyway, forced to answer based on the idea that the parties know that Kyrie will only be available for one playoff run, I'm inclined to still say yes to the deal because the Celts are that close to making a run to the finals and perhaps even winning a title.  It's a much closer thing, though.

Luckily, we don't have to assume that Kyrie is leaving because there's a good chance he isnt going to. And if he does we shouldn't judge the trade as if that was a foregone conclusion.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
- Mark Twain

Offline green_bballers13

  • NCE
  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2202
  • Tommy Points: 268
Hmmmm Trae Young or Kyrie Irving.

Let me think about this one for a while....

Offline Moranis

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19337
  • Tommy Points: 915
If we're playing this game we can't assume that we know we are only getting one playoff run with Kyrie. You have to assume the parties in the trade believe he may be available for two playoff runs.

With that calculus in mind, considering the rest of the talent the Celts had/have on the roster, you're basically asking if two potential Finals runs is worth a top 10 draft pick.  I say yes, especially given how much young talent the Celts already have and how many draft picks the Celts have in the pipeline even after the trade.

Except the hypothetical presented suggests that you *do* know ahead of time, just like you know it’s the #8 pick and that Kyrie is leaving.

I don't see the point of the hypothetical. The deal has already been made so why ask questions based on info that wasn't available at the time the deal was made?

I agree that the fact that kyrie is leaving and that the pick is number eight are also things the parties didn't know at the time of the deal. But I think the value of the pick is something the parties can reasonably estimate.

As for Kyrie leaving, I think it's interesting to entertain the idea of whether the trade would make sense if the parties knew going in that he would likely leave. Teams consider deals like that all the time.

Anyway, forced to answer based on the idea that the parties know that Kyrie will only be available for one playoff run, I'm inclined to still say yes to the deal because the Celts are that close to making a run to the finals and perhaps even winning a title.  It's a much closer thing, though.

Luckily, we don't have to assume that Kyrie is leaving because there's a good chance he isnt going to. And if he does we shouldn't judge the trade as if that was a foregone conclusion.
The point of the hypothetical is one of value and how you would determine it.

Offline green_bballers13

  • NCE
  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2202
  • Tommy Points: 268
I'll play. Under this goofball hypothetical, I would not trade the 8th pick in any draft for any player that has told me that he will not resign in Boston.

I don't want a player that doesn't want to be here. I don't care if his name is Lebron or Michael. If a player doesn't like the city, and has publicly stated that he will not be back, there's a lot of pressure to win at least one championship in those two years. I also think there are chemistry concerns with a leader that clearly is a rental.

Offline celticsclay

  • Satch Sanders
  • *********
  • Posts: 9426
  • Tommy Points: 1025
I'll play. Under this goofball hypothetical, I would not trade the 8th pick in any draft for any player that has told me that he will not resign in Boston.

I don't want a player that doesn't want to be here. I don't care if his name is Lebron or Michael. If a player doesn't like the city, and has publicly stated that he will not be back, there's a lot of pressure to win at least one championship in those two years. I also think there are chemistry concerns with a leader that clearly is a rental.

Kyrie said this?

Offline Moranis

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19337
  • Tommy Points: 915
I'll play. Under this goofball hypothetical, I would not trade the 8th pick in any draft for any player that has told me that he will not resign in Boston.

I don't want a player that doesn't want to be here. I don't care if his name is Lebron or Michael. If a player doesn't like the city, and has publicly stated that he will not be back, there's a lot of pressure to win at least one championship in those two years. I also think there are chemistry concerns with a leader that clearly is a rental.

Kyrie said this?
no and why would you assume he did.  this is a hypothetical thread and he clearly stated he was playing along.

Offline tenn_smoothie

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1687
  • Tommy Points: 179
At some point the Celtics need a culture change within the organization .... from mercenary and cold hearted and only $$$ matters to getting back to Celtics Tradition and pride, where guys maybe give a hometown discount to remain a Celtics.   In the "Trader Danny" Era this is impossible. They have the coach for it. Can the GM reign in his ego for being in the headlines with every trade rumor, and instead take a more behind the scenes approach more focused on continuity rather than block buster deals.

As to Kyrie, I have posted elsewhere his heart is with the Knicks and he will be there once his contract expires if not sooner.

Wow !!  I could not have said it any better. As much as Danny wants to prove himself superior in the front office to Red, he does need to cultivate some of Red's humanity and loyalty to his players. We have fortunately become a franchise with a very good culture again, but Danny needs to treat his players a little better to make the Celtics that special franchise once again.
The Four Celtic Generals:
Russell - Cowens - Bird - Garnett

Offline tenn_smoothie

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1687
  • Tommy Points: 179
If the trade was 2 seasons (one playoffs) of Kyrie for the 8th pick?  And he leaves for another team with no additional compensation?

No way. Why would anybody make that trade?

Because we can win a championship this year, and if Kyrie walks we have cap space to sign someone else.

Nope, no cap space.

Under the scenario laid out, we get a one year rental of Kyrie for a lottery pick, then he walks. That’s silly.

If Irving walked as an unrestricted free agent after this season, why is it that you say we would not be able to use his $20-mil salary to go after other free agents who actually want to be here?

The Four Celtic Generals:
Russell - Cowens - Bird - Garnett

Offline gouki88

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3745
  • Tommy Points: 61
At some point the Celtics need a culture change within the organization .... from mercenary and cold hearted and only $$$ matters to getting back to Celtics Tradition and pride, where guys maybe give a hometown discount to remain a Celtics.   In the "Trader Danny" Era this is impossible. They have the coach for it. Can the GM reign in his ego for being in the headlines with every trade rumor, and instead take a more behind the scenes approach more focused on continuity rather than block buster deals.

As to Kyrie, I have posted elsewhere his heart is with the Knicks and he will be there once his contract expires if not sooner.

Wow !!  I could not have said it any better. As much as Danny wants to prove himself superior in the front office to Red, he does need to cultivate some of Red's humanity and loyalty to his players. We have fortunately become a franchise with a very good culture again, but Danny needs to treat his players a little better to make the Celtics that special franchise once again.
::)

Offline Roy H.

  • Forums Manager
  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 35588
  • Tommy Points: -27753
  • 33,333 posts and counting . . .
If the trade was 2 seasons (one playoffs) of Kyrie for the 8th pick?  And he leaves for another team with no additional compensation?

No way. Why would anybody make that trade?

Because we can win a championship this year, and if Kyrie walks we have cap space to sign someone else.

Nope, no cap space.

Under the scenario laid out, we get a one year rental of Kyrie for a lottery pick, then he walks. That’s silly.

If Irving walked as an unrestricted free agent after this season, why is it that you say we would not be able to use his $20-mil salary to go after other free agents who actually want to be here?

Right now, assuming Irving walks, we have something like $80 million committed. That’s without accounting for Smart, Rozier, draft picks, cap charges etc.  The salary cap will be be most likely under $110 million. So, even if Kyrie, Smart, Morris and Rozier departed, and we “stashed” all of our picks, we wouldn’t be able to sign a max free agent (making $30+ million).

Now, you can easily get there if you start trading off other players, but what’s the sense?

(Keep in mind that this is the vastly simplified version. )



Once a CrotoNat, always a CrotoNat.  CelticsBlog Draft Champions, 2009 & 2012;
DKC Draft 2015 Champions and beyond...