Hat tip to you. Usually when I see "worst case scenario" for prospects it's still a really good player. For instance, I disagree with saltlover: Doncic's worst case scenario is a lot lower than Jalen Rose, a guy who averaged 14 ppg for his career, peaked at 20 ppg, and helped lead his team to the NBA Finals.
The worst case scenario for all of these guys is to be a bust.
I think you are either overstating Rose or underestimating Doncic’ floor. I’ll go with overstating Rose, who had a negative BPM for his career, a 15.3 PER (with a rookie PER of 15.1 and a peak of 17.
and other league average advanced stats. He could score, but wasn’t efficient when asked to take on a high volume, and could run an offense, but wasn’t a pure PG. He struggled with turnovers at times. He did play a crap-ton of minutes, which is generally to his credit (83 games one year!). But virtually no one who’s done much scouting of him thinks Doncic can’t play a major role on a team and give at least average production from Day 1. There is a real question of how much better he can get.
A decade-plus long career as an average starter would be a disappointment to a team picking #1. It would not be to a team picking 5. And at 19, entering the league able to give production immediately, yes, that is his floor (failing injury, but I don’t think that’s the exercise). And that career path really does mirror Jalen Rose — immediate contributor, always useful, but not more than a couple of seasons as an above-average starter.
The worst case for Doncic is not a bust, barring physical or psychological health issues that have not shown themselves to date.