Author Topic: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft  (Read 345 times)

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Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« on: June 12, 2018, 11:25:00 AM »

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This isn't really what I consider their floors. This was more of an exercise to see if I could come up with similar players (skill, physical profile, production) who failed to meet up to their potential. The narratives around many of these players was their high potential before they started struggling in the league.

Deandre Ayton - Michael Olowakandi
Marvin Bagley - Michael Beasley
Luka Doncic - Mario Hezonja
Mo Bamba - Saer Sene
Trae Young - Dejuan Wagner
Wendell Carter - Sheldon Williams
Jaren Jackson - Patrick O'Bryant
Michael Porter - Jonathan Bender
Mikal Bridges - Wesley Johnson
Miles Bridges - Rodney White

Thoughts?

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #1 on: June 12, 2018, 11:30:43 AM »

Online saltlover

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Worst-case for Luka Doncic is Jalen Rose.  Rotation-level point-forward that is near his peak from Day 1.  Hezonja has never been anything but a scrub.
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Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #2 on: June 12, 2018, 11:31:27 AM »

Offline gouki88

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Saer Sene is a name I haven't thought of for a long long time.

I'd say Bagley would be more Jan Vesely if he flopped, rather than Beasley. All that guy ever did was foul

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2018, 11:34:39 AM »

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Worst-case for Luka Doncic is Jalen Rose.  Rotation-level point-forward that is near his peak from Day 1.  Hezonja has never been anything but a scrub.

Yeah. I like Doncic and couldn't find a good "worst case scenario." I guess that comparison was more about Hezonja's cockiness and inability to play with the team.

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #4 on: June 12, 2018, 11:58:06 AM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Name that popped up in my head even though it doesn’t make sense is Sexton = Marcus Banks

Trae Young - Trey Burke

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #5 on: June 12, 2018, 12:12:05 PM »

Online saltlover

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Worst-case for Luka Doncic is Jalen Rose.  Rotation-level point-forward that is near his peak from Day 1.  Hezonja has never been anything but a scrub.

Yeah. I like Doncic and couldn't find a good "worst case scenario." I guess that comparison was more about Hezonja's cockiness and inability to play with the team.

Then stick with Jalen Rose, who has cockiness in spades.
“When an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.”

Leviticus 19:33-34

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #6 on: June 12, 2018, 12:15:21 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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This isn't really what I consider their floors. This was more of an exercise to see if I could come up with similar players (skill, physical profile, production) who failed to meet up to their potential. The narratives around many of these players was their high potential before they started struggling in the league.

Deandre Ayton - Michael Olowakandi
Marvin Bagley - Michael Beasley
Luka Doncic - Mario Hezonja
Mo Bamba - Saer Sene
Trae Young - Dejuan Wagner
Wendell Carter - Sheldon Williams
Jaren Jackson - Patrick O'Bryant
Michael Porter - Jonathan Bender
Mikal Bridges - Wesley Johnson
Miles Bridges - Rodney White

Thoughts?

I like your ambition in coming up with these comps, it isn't super easy.  I bolded the comps I particularly like, although I admit I'm not really an expert on Wesley Johnson.

I would probably switch Michael Beasley over from Bagley to Michael Porter, I think that might be a closer parallel.  Since Bagley now needs a comp, I'd venture to throw out Tyrus Thomas, even though I know it's not a great match when you look at the nuances of their games. 

But Tyrus Thomas was a super athletic big man on one of the best teams in the country, who could score and rebound due to his athleticism but lacked the basketball skills and possibly the work ethic to be successful in the NBA.  He was undersized, and Bagley is 6'11", but if Bagley can't play center he is pretty lacking in skills for a future All Star caliber NBA PF in 2018.
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Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #7 on: June 12, 2018, 01:01:33 PM »

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Michael Porter = Derrick Williams?

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #8 on: June 12, 2018, 01:21:01 PM »

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Hat tip to you.  Usually when I see "worst case scenario" for prospects it's still a really good player.  For instance, I disagree with saltlover:  Doncic's worst case scenario is a lot lower than Jalen Rose, a guy who averaged 14 ppg for his career, peaked at 20 ppg, and helped lead his team to the NBA Finals.

The worst case scenario for all of these guys is to be a bust.


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Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #9 on: June 12, 2018, 02:22:52 PM »

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Hat tip to you.  Usually when I see "worst case scenario" for prospects it's still a really good player.  For instance, I disagree with saltlover:  Doncic's worst case scenario is a lot lower than Jalen Rose, a guy who averaged 14 ppg for his career, peaked at 20 ppg, and helped lead his team to the NBA Finals.

The worst case scenario for all of these guys is to be a bust.

I think you are either overstating Rose or underestimating Doncic’ floor.  I’ll go with overstating Rose, who had a negative BPM for his career, a 15.3 PER (with a rookie PER of 15.1 and a peak of 17.8) and other league average advanced stats.  He could score, but wasn’t efficient when asked to take on a high volume, and could run an offense, but wasn’t a pure PG.  He struggled with turnovers at times.  He did play a crap-ton of minutes, which is generally to his credit (83 games one year!).  But virtually no one who’s done much scouting of him thinks Doncic can’t play a major role on a team and give at least average production from Day 1.  There is a real question of how much better he can get. 

A decade-plus long career as an average starter would be a disappointment to a team picking #1.  It would not be to a team picking 5.  And at 19, entering the league able to give production immediately, yes, that is his floor (failing injury, but I don’t think that’s the exercise).  And that career path really does mirror Jalen Rose — immediate contributor, always useful, but not more than a couple of seasons as an above-average starter. 

The worst case for Doncic is not a bust, barring physical or psychological health issues that have not shown themselves to date.
“When an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.”

Leviticus 19:33-34

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #10 on: June 12, 2018, 02:33:26 PM »

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Hat tip to you.  Usually when I see "worst case scenario" for prospects it's still a really good player.  For instance, I disagree with saltlover:  Doncic's worst case scenario is a lot lower than Jalen Rose, a guy who averaged 14 ppg for his career, peaked at 20 ppg, and helped lead his team to the NBA Finals.

The worst case scenario for all of these guys is to be a bust.

I think you are either overstating Rose or underestimating Doncic’ floor.  I’ll go with overstating Rose, who had a negative BPM for his career, a 15.3 PER (with a rookie PER of 15.1 and a peak of 17.8) and other league average advanced stats.  He could score, but wasn’t efficient when asked to take on a high volume, and could run an offense, but wasn’t a pure PG.  He struggled with turnovers at times.  He did play a crap-ton of minutes, which is generally to his credit (83 games one year!).  But virtually no one who’s done much scouting of him thinks Doncic can’t play a major role on a team and give at least average production from Day 1.  There is a real question of how much better he can get. 

A decade-plus long career as an average starter would be a disappointment to a team picking #1.  It would not be to a team picking 5.  And at 19, entering the league able to give production immediately, yes, that is his floor (failing injury, but I don’t think that’s the exercise).  And that career path really does mirror Jalen Rose — immediate contributor, always useful, but not more than a couple of seasons as an above-average starter. 

The worst case for Doncic is not a bust, barring physical or psychological health issues that have not shown themselves to date.

I agreed with your post until I hit the bolded. I do not think that Doncic is considered a "can't-miss" prospect like Lebron or Anthony Davis. He can absolutely be a bust.

Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #11 on: June 12, 2018, 02:34:06 PM »

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Quote
But virtually no one who’s done much scouting of him thinks Doncic can’t play a major role on a team and give at least average production from Day 1

But isn’t this true of almost all top-3 picks? Except in extreme cases (Anthony Bennett) nobody really expects below average production from a top lottery pick. And yet, there are busts every year.


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Re: Worst Case Scenarios for the Top Players in the 2018 Draft
« Reply #12 on: June 12, 2018, 02:56:36 PM »

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Quote
But virtually no one who’s done much scouting of him thinks Doncic can’t play a major role on a team and give at least average production from Day 1

But isn’t this true of almost all top-3 picks? Except in extreme cases (Anthony Bennett) nobody really expects below average production from a top lottery pick. And yet, there are busts every year.

Disagree.  When you hear people talk about Ayton, people do have concerns that he can handle the NBA defensively, or that his shot will be good enough to be a modern stretch big.  The concerns about Doncic are decidedly different, and that it’s about a lack of room for growth in his game, so that his ultimate ceiling will just be that of an average-to-good player, and not the franchise player one hopes.  But even his detractors think he’ll be ready Day 1.

I disagree with the assessment of his ceiling, as I think his court vision and BBIQ are outstanding and will make him a standout player offensively and defensively.  But many do, and that’s why people are talking themselves out of drafting him, it seems.
“When an alien resides with you in your land, you shall not oppress the alien. The alien who resides with you shall be to you as the citizen among you; you shall love the alien as yourself, for you were aliens in the land of Egypt: I am the Lord your God.”

Leviticus 19:33-34