It's too much of a step backwards for the Pelicans after their playoff run, which, with a healthy Boogie, could have gone deep with Golden State.What if Boogie isn't staying? There is a chance he goes to Lakers with PG. Also Pelicans have seen both sides to Rondo they may not want to resign him. If those two things happen its
In other words, after this trade the Pelicans absolutely would have to worry about re-signing Rondo and Cousins. When you lose AD and Jrue and then let Rondo go too....the team is just all the way gone. A recovering Porzingis (when?), Horford and Rozier won't cut it... The picks are nice, but this is a trade to make when on the absolute verge of losing Davis, not before that point.
If they trade AD this summer they have to re-sign Boogie (even if they added Horford and Porzingis) and then be patient with his recovery....but in the meantime they need a true healthy star to keep the success going.
Holiday, Moore, Hill, Mirotic, Davis
Rozier, Lee, Mirotic, Horford, Porzingis.
Both lineups fall of course to Rockets and Warriors. The second Pelican team at least has cap space and good picks coming up to improve the club. The first team is in no man's land with a super star who will probably ask for a trade his last year.
Turning AD into Porzingis, though. That's a tough, tough pill to swallow. AD sells tickets and jerseys. People come because they want to see what he will do. Zinger, at his best, just isn't on that level - and he's coming off an ACL tear - who knows what he will be? And at best, he won't play before December - the Pellies might miss the playoffs next year.
I'm interested in your thoughts re the contracts, because I see some downsides. KP is in line for a new deal after next year. So is TRoz, as we all know really well. If KP plays as he should, that's a max deal - less than AD's max, but still a max deal. Rozier could be what, mid-teens at least if he pans out? If that happens you're a little better off on the contracts than you would be keeping AD and Jrue, but not enough to justify the talent hit.
Al Horford is another puzzle. If the Pellies hold onto him through his contract, then he is also on their team at the max - which really has them in a bind. They'll have about 80 million tied up in those three. For sure, if they keep Al they can't also keep Boogie, which means subtracting an all-star who is closer to the age of your core in favor of an older player who will fall off as KP comes on.
I'm not a capologist, so I'm probably missing something, but I don't see huge upside for the Pellies. I'd rather pay a little more for AD and take the talent bump.
The picks are a sweetener, and maybe they make the difference, although they do have uncertain value. I'd pencil in the Sacto pick at 5-12, most likely in the middle of that range. The Knicks pick is protected. Those picks might be nice pieces for your team, but you've lost your top-five player, the kind of guy you want to build around. Maybe this gives them a pretty good team, 5-10 best in the league, and maybe that's all they want. But I think they want a contender and I don't think this gets them there.
I don't know what other moves they can make to put good players around AD I - maybe it's a matter of waiting for bad contracts to leave their cap sheet.