Poll

Would you do this trade?

Yes
4 (26.7%)
No
11 (73.3%)
On the fence
0 (0%)

Total Members Voted: 15

Author Topic: My three team AD trade.  (Read 1025 times)

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Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2018, 05:14:11 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Also - Holiday shot .337 last year, which rounds to 34.

That was an off year for him - heís 36% career. I predict heíd get some great looks if we ever built that lineup and expect him to be a guy you canít leave alone.

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2018, 07:06:56 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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It's too much of a step backwards for the Pelicans after their playoff run, which, with a healthy Boogie, could have gone deep with Golden State.

In other words, after this trade the Pelicans absolutely would have to worry about re-signing Rondo and Cousins.  When you lose AD and Jrue and then let Rondo go too....the team is just all the way gone.  A recovering Porzingis (when?), Horford and Rozier won't cut it...  The picks are nice, but this is a trade to make when on the absolute verge of losing Davis, not before that point. 

If they trade AD this summer they have to re-sign Boogie (even if they added Horford and Porzingis) and then be patient with his recovery....but in the meantime they need a true healthy star to keep the success going.
What if Boogie isn't staying? There is a  chance he goes to Lakers with PG. Also Pelicans have seen both sides to Rondo they may not want to resign him. If those two things happen its

Holiday, Moore, Hill, Mirotic, Davis
Vs
Rozier, Lee, Mirotic, Horford, Porzingis.

Both lineups fall of course to Rockets and Warriors. The second Pelican team at least has cap space and good picks coming up to improve the club. The first team is in no man's land with a super star who will probably ask for a trade his last year.

Turning AD into Porzingis, though. That's a tough, tough pill to swallow. AD sells tickets and jerseys. People come because they want to see what he will do. Zinger, at his best, just isn't on that level - and he's coming off an ACL tear - who knows what he will be? And at best, he won't play before December - the Pellies might miss the playoffs next year.

I'm interested in your thoughts re the contracts, because I see some downsides. KP is in line for a new deal after next year. So is TRoz, as we all know really well. If KP plays as he should, that's a max deal - less than AD's max, but still a max deal. Rozier could be what, mid-teens at least if he pans out?  If that happens you're a little better off on the contracts than you would be keeping AD and Jrue, but not enough to justify the talent hit.

Al Horford is another puzzle. If the Pellies hold onto him through his contract, then he is also on their team at the max - which really has them in a bind. They'll have about 80 million tied up in those three. For sure, if they keep Al they can't also keep Boogie, which means subtracting an all-star who is closer to the age of your core in favor of an older player who will fall off as KP comes on.

I'm not a capologist, so I'm probably missing something, but I don't see huge upside for the Pellies. I'd rather pay a little more for AD and take the talent bump.

The picks are a sweetener, and maybe they make the difference, although they do have uncertain value. I'd pencil in the Sacto pick at 5-12, most likely in the middle of that range. The Knicks pick is protected. Those picks might be nice pieces for your team, but you've lost your top-five player, the kind of guy you want to build around. Maybe this gives them a pretty good team, 5-10 best in the league, and maybe that's all they want. But I think they want a contender and I don't think this gets them there.

I don't know what other moves they can make to put good players around AD I - maybe it's a matter of waiting for bad contracts to leave their cap sheet.




« Last Edit: June 09, 2018, 07:12:17 PM by Sophomore »

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2018, 08:32:04 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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Quote
Iíd put his skill level between Rozier and Kyrie - above average starting PG, not quite an all star.

He shot worse from three than Rozier or Kyrie this last year at 33%.  Terry shot 38% and Kyrie shot 41%  and we need floor spreaders in our offense.

Heís not as good a 3-point shooter, itís true. But heís a good shot creator and midrange guy, with a reasonable if not great TS% of 57%.

A Celtics team with AD and Jrue surrounded by three 40% 3-point shooters (Hayward, Tatum, Brown) would probably be OK.
Yup Holiday is good mid range and a decent ball handler and passer. He doesnt forcing things and for BS' system is more suited than an iso player.
Mock "trade deadline" team: Blazers.
PG-Lillard, Napier, Baldwin
SG-McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox
SF-Fournier, Harkless, Layman
PF-Aminu, Davis
C- Nurkic, Leonard, Collins

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2018, 08:44:57 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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I would give Brown, Rozier, the Sacramento 1st, the Clippers 1st, and Boston's 1st for AD.  So two players and 3 1st round picks.  But no they can't have Kyrie or Tatum.

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #19 on: June 10, 2018, 05:13:07 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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It's too much of a step backwards for the Pelicans after their playoff run, which, with a healthy Boogie, could have gone deep with Golden State.

In other words, after this trade the Pelicans absolutely would have to worry about re-signing Rondo and Cousins.  When you lose AD and Jrue and then let Rondo go too....the team is just all the way gone.  A recovering Porzingis (when?), Horford and Rozier won't cut it...  The picks are nice, but this is a trade to make when on the absolute verge of losing Davis, not before that point. 

If they trade AD this summer they have to re-sign Boogie (even if they added Horford and Porzingis) and then be patient with his recovery....but in the meantime they need a true healthy star to keep the success going.
What if Boogie isn't staying? There is a  chance he goes to Lakers with PG. Also Pelicans have seen both sides to Rondo they may not want to resign him. If those two things happen its

Holiday, Moore, Hill, Mirotic, Davis
Vs
Rozier, Lee, Mirotic, Horford, Porzingis.

Both lineups fall of course to Rockets and Warriors. The second Pelican team at least has cap space and good picks coming up to improve the club. The first team is in no man's land with a super star who will probably ask for a trade his last year.

Turning AD into Porzingis, though. That's a tough, tough pill to swallow. AD sells tickets and jerseys. People come because they want to see what he will do. Zinger, at his best, just isn't on that level - and he's coming off an ACL tear - who knows what he will be? And at best, he won't play before December - the Pellies might miss the playoffs next year.

I'm interested in your thoughts re the contracts, because I see some downsides. KP is in line for a new deal after next year. So is TRoz, as we all know really well. If KP plays as he should, that's a max deal - less than AD's max, but still a max deal. Rozier could be what, mid-teens at least if he pans out?  If that happens you're a little better off on the contracts than you would be keeping AD and Jrue, but not enough to justify the talent hit.

Al Horford is another puzzle. If the Pellies hold onto him through his contract, then he is also on their team at the max - which really has them in a bind. They'll have about 80 million tied up in those three. For sure, if they keep Al they can't also keep Boogie, which means subtracting an all-star who is closer to the age of your core in favor of an older player who will fall off as KP comes on.

I'm not a capologist, so I'm probably missing something, but I don't see huge upside for the Pellies. I'd rather pay a little more for AD and take the talent bump.

The picks are a sweetener, and maybe they make the difference, although they do have uncertain value. I'd pencil in the Sacto pick at 5-12, most likely in the middle of that range. The Knicks pick is protected. Those picks might be nice pieces for your team, but you've lost your top-five player, the kind of guy you want to build around. Maybe this gives them a pretty good team, 5-10 best in the league, and maybe that's all they want. But I think they want a contender and I don't think this gets them there.

I don't know what other moves they can make to put good players around AD I - maybe it's a matter of waiting for bad contracts to leave their cap sheet.
If AL ops out they can sign two max contracts in 2019 with this trade. I'd think try to sign one max guy an two mid tier FAs works best. Say Klay, Harris and retain Mirotic. Now your at Rozier, Klay, Harris, Mirotic, and Porzingis. Or you use Kings pick and cap space to trade for a Max player. It gives them flexibility.

Again this is if Cousins is out. Not sure most got that part when I said FA for them may be bleak. I'd assume they know his health and will wait to see what happens in FA before dealing AD in this deal.
Mock "trade deadline" team: Blazers.
PG-Lillard, Napier, Baldwin
SG-McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox
SF-Fournier, Harkless, Layman
PF-Aminu, Davis
C- Nurkic, Leonard, Collins

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #20 on: June 10, 2018, 07:47:34 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I will never understand this fascination with helping other teams do well with these trades. 

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #21 on: June 10, 2018, 08:51:35 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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I will never understand this fascination with helping other teams do well with these trades.

Do you mean the OPís trade idea was focused on that? I donít think so. Holiday-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Davis is a championship team, period. The rest of the thread was about whether the trade was one you could imagine NOP actually doing.

I mean, if youíre asking - would I prefer that Davis force his way out of NO and we can get him for a bag of balls, then of course I would. Thatís not where things are though.

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #22 on: June 10, 2018, 08:52:46 AM »

Offline gouki88

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I will never understand this fascination with helping other teams do well with these trades.

Do you mean the OPís trade idea was focused on that? I donít think so. Holiday-Brown-Hayward-Tatum-Davis is a championship team, period. The rest of the thread was about whether the trade was one you could imagine NOP actually doing.
Yeah. This definitely helps us.

That team is frankly ridiculous

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #23 on: June 10, 2018, 09:00:51 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I will never understand this fascination with helping other teams do well with these trades.
It's not fascination. It's about seeing the value of the deal for the other team. As in what the other team gains and loses.

What I fail to understand is why so many people don't even think about trades that are posted and don't even look at the players mentioned before posting. It's a trade thread why go in if you aren't interested in reading it?
Mock "trade deadline" team: Blazers.
PG-Lillard, Napier, Baldwin
SG-McCollum, Connaughton, Wilcox
SF-Fournier, Harkless, Layman
PF-Aminu, Davis
C- Nurkic, Leonard, Collins

Re: My three team AD trade.
« Reply #24 on: June 10, 2018, 10:32:34 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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The  reason that any Davis trade is hard to analyze is that I can't understand what would motivate NOP to trade him.  Sometimes teams trade star players because they think they will leave for nothing in free agency.  This is not the case,  Davis has a 2 more seasons then a player option.  Other times maybe there is a risk of injury.  Also not the case.

I can't think of any reason that NOP would want to trade Davis.  What other player would you rather build a team/franchise around than him right now?  Certainly not Porzingis (who is a nice player).  Certainly not Horford.

This is why people probably don't put a whole lot of energy into Davis trades.  I jumped in on this one because I thought the Boston-Knicks piece of the trade was interesting.  The Celtics trading Kyrie is a little less unlikely than NOP trading Davis.  I don't think the Davis part is even close to something that NOP would do.
« Last Edit: June 10, 2018, 10:39:53 AM by Vermont Green »