Author Topic: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year  (Read 1416 times)

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Offline Moranis

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be. 

Offline liam

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be.

The Kings will stink but just how bad the stench will be is yet to be determined! I can't believe that they were the 7th worst team this year. The times I watched them play they looked terrible!
« Last Edit: May 31, 2018, 03:12:53 PM by liam »

Offline CFAN38

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


   
« Last Edit: May 31, 2018, 03:52:14 PM by CFAN38 »

Offline Boise To Boston

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Great analysis.  Seems like the Clippers, who have 12 and 13 and need a young PG, would be an ideal trade partner here. 

Did Rozier ever have a big game against Doc?  That would seal the deal.

I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 

Offline JHTruth

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Great analysis.  Seems like the Clippers, who have 12 and 13 and need a young PG, would be an ideal trade partner here. 

Did Rozier ever have a big game against Doc?  That would seal the deal.

I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 

Who at 12 or 13 is worth trading Rozier for?

Offline Moranis

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 
Leonard was the 15th pick not the 12th pick.

I've said multiple times and in multiple different threads on here, that Rozier for 16 would seemingly make sense for both teams if someone like Robert Williams was on the board.  In a vacuum Rozier might have a bit more value than 16, but I just don't see any teams earlier than that having such a need that they would trade their pick for Rozier (who remember is entering the last year of his rookie contract, and is pretty old for a player of his experience level).

Offline CFAN38

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

I was on the fence if I may be over valuing the pick and Rozier but members of NBA media seem to think that its not that outlandish so I ran with it for the sake of this post.

I have said in the past the best gauge for this trade was the George Hill from the Spurs to Pacers for the #12 pick.

I wrote a long post on this but to paraphrase.

George Hill at the time of the trade was a slightly less effective player then Rozier. Both where roughly the same age and had one year left on their contracts.

As for the 12th pick that was used on Leonard at the time of the draft Chad Ford had him as a 3rd tier player. His tiers where intel based and the 3rd tier was for players who teams felt had all star potential but where not all star locks like tier 2 players. ( that year the tier 2s where Irving and Derrick Williams, with no tier 1).

2011 draft tiers by Chad Ford


Tier 2
Kyrie Irving (draft range: 1 to 2)
Derrick Williams (1 to 3)


Tier 3
Enes Kanter (2 to 6)
Brandon Knight (3 to 7)
Kawhi Leonard (5 to 9)
Jonas Valanciunas (3 to 8)
Jan Vesely (3 to 10)
Kemba Walker (3 to 9)


My guess at player tiers this year would be the following. Not my tiers just a prediction of what GMS might be thinking based off of what I have read.

Tier 2
Doncic
Ayton
Bagely
Porter

Tier 3
Jackson
Bamba
Young
Carter

Based on this a Rozier for a pick trade should land the Cs a pick in the 9-12 range. Add the value of a future likely top 8 pick from the Kings and trading up to 4-8 seems more likely. 


 
Leonard was the 15th pick not the 12th pick.

I've said multiple times and in multiple different threads on here, that Rozier for 16 would seemingly make sense for both teams if someone like Robert Williams was on the board.  In a vacuum Rozier might have a bit more value than 16, but I just don't see any teams earlier than that having such a need that they would trade their pick for Rozier (who remember is entering the last year of his rookie contract, and is pretty old for a player of his experience level).

Thatís embarrassing 100% right he was 15th I have talked so many times about trading Rozier for 12 that I had my facts wrong.

For me it is not about the pick Rozier is traded for the player who is available. If Carter slides and can be drafted with a pick that the Cs obtain from a Rozier trade in 100% for it. Not as high on Williams Iím concerned about his skill and b-ball IQ not translating into Celtics system 

Offline Sophomore

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
I don't believe that Sacramento is certain to be a bottom 5 team.  They could be, but they were the 7th worst team this year, are adding the #2 pick, and have plenty of cap room.  They could easily pass the Nets and Knicks and may pass the Lakers if they end up punting in free agency.  It is far from a given that the Suns, Mavs, Hawks, Bulls, and Magic improve more then them and who knows how healthy the Grizzlies will actually be.  The Hornets seems like a team that could go into full bore tank mode and the Cavs might if James leaves.  This notion that the Kings are guaranteed to be a bottom 5 team is just hogwash.  They certainly might be, but the odds as they look right now would say they won't be.

Yeah. I expect the Kings pick next year to be somewhere in the 10 to 14 range.   They were only seventh worst last year, and their young players have got some run now. Winning just a few more games gets them to 10th. They are also, unfortunately, going to get the first or second pick in the draft. Most likely that player won’t add anything - so I pencil them in 10th – but we saw what happened this year. Some rookies really added a lot to their teams. Luca D Could be worth a few wins.

Offline tazzmaniac

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
Those odds aren't accurate.  Even if the Kings finish with the 2nd worst record, there is a 20% chance of ending up with the 6th pick plus the 14% chance of ending up #1 and reverting to the Sixers pick.  If the Kings end up with the 5th worst record, there is only a 33.8% chance of ending up 2 through 5. 

Offline byennie

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Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
Those odds aren't accurate.  Even if the Kings finish with the 2nd worst record, there is a 20% chance of ending up with the 6th pick plus the 14% chance of ending up #1 and reverting to the Sixers pick.  If the Kings end up with the 5th worst record, there is only a 33.8% chance of ending up 2 through 5.

Yeah too fast with the napkin numbers on my part. Still, model it with them randomly finishing somewhere between 1st and 5th worst record. The average odds become:

Sixers pick: 13.0%
2nd pick: 12.6%
3rd pick: 12.1%
4th pick: 11.6%
5th pick: 20.0%
6th pick: 18.3%
7th pick: 10.1%
8th pick: 2.2%
9th pick: 1.2%

Obviously it's a gamble, but 85% chance of 2-7 is not worth way less than having #6 if you're getting something else valuable in return.

You could also maybe handcuff it to some other pick... if they end up with PHI they get MEM instead or something.
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Offline Moranis

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Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
Those odds aren't accurate.  Even if the Kings finish with the 2nd worst record, there is a 20% chance of ending up with the 6th pick plus the 14% chance of ending up #1 and reverting to the Sixers pick.  If the Kings end up with the 5th worst record, there is only a 33.8% chance of ending up 2 through 5.

Yeah too fast with the napkin numbers on my part. Still, model it with them randomly finishing somewhere between 1st and 5th worst record. The average odds become:

Sixers pick: 13.0%
2nd pick: 12.6%
3rd pick: 12.1%
4th pick: 11.6%
5th pick: 20.0%
6th pick: 18.3%
7th pick: 10.1%
8th pick: 2.2%
9th pick: 1.2%

Obviously it's a gamble, but 85% chance of 2-7 is not worth way less than having #6 if you're getting something else valuable in return.

You could also maybe handcuff it to some other pick... if they end up with PHI they get MEM instead or something.
Assuming your percentages are not correct, those odds are based on the Kings being one of the worst teams in the league, and that just doesn't seem likely.  A lottery team, no question, but god awful, just doesn't seem all that likely at this point.

Offline SparzWizard

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Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?

Offline A Future of Stevens

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Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?

Hard pass.
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Offline Sketch5

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Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?

I've heard that linked to the Bamba interest and that the MAvs are willing to move the pick. It's over pay on our end. If we were getting a solid player too, I'd think about it, but they don't have anything that works contract wise that we would want.

Offline hwangjini_1

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Been hearing speculations of Brown being traded to the Mavericks for #5 pick? Thoughts?
any source worth a rat's butt on this? if not, then hard to get involved much.
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