Author Topic: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year  (Read 1417 times)

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Offline wdleehi

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.


Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?

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Offline Fafnir

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Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?
Not only that but the new lottery odds mean that if they're the 7th pick again they have much better chance of jumping into the top 4 (which is the new number of drawn picks) than they did this year of jumping into the top 3.

Offline Moranis

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.


Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?
They were the 7th pick this year and just ahead of BKN and NY.  I'll give you Memphis being worse then them is a stretch, but I could certainly see any of the other teams being worse then them again and wouldn't be overly surprised if they move ahead of the Nets or Knicks.  Then you have great unknowns, like the Cavs.  If James leaves, I imagine they would sell off as much as possible and likely won't be very good.  Are the Hornets going to decide to throw in the towel and tank.  What if the Lakers don't land anyone this summer, they could end up worse than the Kings, especially since the Kings are adding the 2nd pick in the draft this year.

If I was projecting where the pick falls in 5 position ranges, then 6-10 is by far the most likely landing spot for the Kings pick at this point.  And even if the pick wins the 1st pick, then it stays in Philly and becomes Philly's pick which is almost certainly going to be in the mid to late 20's.  For those reasons, the Kings picks value just isn't that great, especially when you consider this up coming draft is presumed to be much stronger and deeper then next summer.

Offline kgwannabe

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Been saying the same thing in other threads for two weeks. Ideally, Bamba would be the target, but Carter Jr. might suffice. Now is the time to lock in a core. The biggest reason is that as an asset, Rozier will depreciate, as will the Clippers pick. if we wait we likely lose these as valuable assets. It's not an overpay to give up assets that will have less value in a year. Unless Kyrie get hurt (and if he does we're  in some trouble) Rozier is a one year luxury and we don't need 4 picks next year. Trade now, see if you can get a big and maybe acquire a future second rounder and hope for the best.

Offline slamtheking

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.


Why?   What are they doing that will allow them to make such a huge jump versus other teams in the same range?
exactly.

Sac figures to be in the worst 5 records next year. 
- they're still in the West where everyone else figures to get better via their own high draft pick (i.e. Suns, Dallas) or players returning from injury (Memphis, ) or free agent signings (Lakers, Clippers). 
- The bottom teams in the East also figure to improve in those regards so more likely Sac is a bottom feeder again.   Their own high draft pick (i.e.  Atlanta, Orlando, ) or players returning from injury (, Knicks) or free agent signings (Chicago, Brooklyn). 
- Their youth has some moderate promise but no one looks like an all-star stud.  Fox, Hield, Mason, Skal, WCS.  these guys are looking like supporting players so far.  they have the chance to draft either Ayton or Doncic as the prospects with the highest expectations to become a foundation player but neither is likely to play at that level next year.

Offline Boise To Boston

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We know that Danny is willing to unload the coffers in order to get a player he really wants (thank goodness that didn't work out last time).  And while the teams that Danny would want to trade with to move up and get Bamba or Jackson likely don't need Rozier, I think it's totally doable to bring in a third team.  Any of these teams COULD use someone like Rozier and be willing to give a pick for him that Danny could use to put a package together to move up to the 4-8 range:

Clippers at 12/13
Atlanta at 19
Minnesota at 20
Utah at 21

Take that pick and package it with Boston's 27 this year and either next year's Memphis/Sacramento pick and I think you have line of sight to the 4th or 5th pick and either Jackson or Bamba, or possibly the 8th/9th pick from Cleveland or New York to get Wendell Carter.

I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.


Rozier and a likely top lotto pick from the Kings (plus possible another late draft pick).

Not just Rozier. 

For a pick between 4 and 6.   I could see that happening.

Offline nebist

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It just depends on how much Danny likes the big men in this draft as players. 1-2 of them will likely fall in the 6-12 range. We're not trading Brown for a rookie. Not gonna happen, and so I think that makes it prohibitive for us to get into top 5. But once you get in that 6-12 range, the Rozier, SAC or MEM pick, 27 package becomes at least plausible depending on how specific teams in that range value Rozier.

So draft could shake out like:
1- Suns - Ayton
2- Kings - Doncic
3- Hawks - Bagley
4- Grizz - MPJ
5- Mavs - JJJ
6- Magic - Trae Young
7- Bulls - Bamba
8- Cavs - Mikal Bridges
9- Knicks - Collin Sexton
10- Sixers - Miles Bridges
11- Hornets - Wendell Carter Jr.

There's a fairly plausible scenario where you've got 2 bigs in that 6-11 range. If Bamba goes higher, then it's probable that JJJ or Bagley is still around in the 6-7 range. The Magic and Knicks in particular would seem to be great landing spots for Rozier.

Personally, I would pull the trigger on Rozier, SAC, 27 for Bagley or JJJ. And I would consider it for Bamba and Carter, but I defer to Ainge's evaluations of whether Bamba is bust-proof enough and Carter's ceiling is high enough.

Offline JHTruth

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.

Offline td450

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.
Again, each situation is different.

That was one extreme.

The Suns traded for #8 in 2016 to grab what looked at the time like a talented big man too. It took Bogdanovic, #13, #28 and a 2nd rounder.

Rozier, the Sac pick and the #27 pick is a significantly better offer than that.


Offline mef730

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.

We don't know what picks were included, assuming there were four firsts in the mix (and it sounds about right), but the rumor is that a BKN pick was included. I remain convinced that a Brooklyn pick was never in the mix, but Danny's letting that rumor hang around to give the impression that even he can be taken advantage of occasionally.

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Offline hwangjini_1

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.

To support this I offer the fact that Danny offered SIX DRAFT PICKS, including 4 first rounders to move up from 16 to 9 in the Rozier draft and it wasn't enough. Imagine the cost to get into the top 10 from 27.
i am not sure this is a good comparison point. one of the draft picks currently under discussion has the potential for being top 7 next year. sacramento will suck next year too. the picks offered by ainge before were not very high in the draft. the 16th may have been the best, but correct me if i am wrong on this.

plus, rozier is a proven nba player, not a middling to poor first round pick.

i see significant differences between the two proposed offers. now, whether the latest package is enough to enter into the top 7 this year, we won't know until the draft.
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Offline byennie

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?
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Offline JHTruth

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I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't.

Unlikely? SAC is almost certainly one of the 5 worst teams in the league. So the odds are something like:

10% = Philly pick (it hit #1)
80% = 2-5
10% = 6-10

Getting a future pick which is 80% going to be higher is not washed away by saying this year is a deep draft. It's still the #6 pick and there certainly are not 6 sure things to choose from.

Throw in something like Rozier or additional picks and it could easily be a win for the other side. You really think Orlando is clearly better off rolling the dice on Bamba than getting a starting PG *plus* a comparable pick *plus* additional 1st rounder(s) as assets?

Not a bad argument. But I think what happens in these drafts is GMs end up a lot like us, falling in love with a player's potential (esp one with the physical attributes of Bamba) and logic often goes out the window. For the record I don't think Bamba will last to 8, but you never know.

In support of your position, one could argue that the Kings actually won the Chriss trade as I live on Phoenix and Chriss is widely thought to be terrible..

Offline JHTruth

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 53m53 minutes ago
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League source on Celtics' reported interest in moving up to draft Mo Bamba: "Don't waste your time on that one."

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Offline gift

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@Murf56
 53m53 minutes ago
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League source on Celtics' reported interest in moving up to draft Mo Bamba: "Don't waste your time on that one."

7 replies 61 retweets 164 likes
Reply 7   Retweet 61   Like 164

Does this source realize how much time we've already wasted on this?