Author Topic: The Pros and Cons of cashing in future Draft pick for a high pick this year  (Read 1528 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline CFAN38

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3715
  • Tommy Points: 303
Let me just first say that no matter how bad DA wants to move up to land a high pick in this draft it still may not happen. Teams get locked in on prospects and feel they need to feed their fan bases in the moment with youth and potential. There is no better example then the year DA almost traded the farm for Justice Winslow but no one would take it.

This post is based of the rumors that the Cs are high on Bamba and Doncic and have explored moving up in the draft.

I am assuming that at the very minimum a trade up into the 4-7 range  would cost the Cs Rozier, #27, 19 Sac pick, and an additional 2019 1st. With that additional pick likely being the Grizz pick.   


Pros,

The Cs have their established core. Irving, Tatum, Brown, Hayward and Horford as the starts for the foreseeable future. If all works out they will retain Smart and Baynes cementing in their top 7 next season and will fill out the rotation with a vet min, Semi and Theis. Keeping this group together will leave little room to add multiple rookies in 2019

It seems very unlikely that Anthony Davis, the only player I would want to see the Cs make a push for trading is going to hit the open market. His ability to sign a super max and their recent playoff performance has me skeptical we will leave in the next few years. Aside from Davis or maybe KAT its hard to find a trade target who is a big enough roster upgrade to warrant using the cash of picks.

The 2018 draft is deep in big man depth while 2019 appears shallow. If the Cs want to land a high ceiling player to play behind/along side and learn from Horford this might be the Cs best chance. Adding and developing a young big now would start the Cs prep for the post Horford prime years without having to shake up the roster. As a team who is not going to see cap space for a long long time this maybe critical.

This class includes 5 potential all-star level centers in Ayton, Jackson, Bagely, Bamba, and Carter. All 5 could conceivably develop into modern offensive centers. Carter and Ayton are the most refined, Jackson and Bagley showed some perimeter skills in college, and Bamba is remuored to be a better perimeter shooter then he showed in college. On D Jackson, and Bamba could be elite and Carter really good. Ayton and Bagely have the tools to be good but will require work.

Adding an elite center prospect now would allow the Cs to let Baynes go if his contract demands are to high. Then sign a cheaper stop gap big to a one year deal or trust Theis and the Rookie to fill Baynes role. 

Cons,

The Cs tried to go down this road before and rumor has it that trading away a bunch of picks for 1 pick almost cost the Cs the picks that became Tatum and Brown.

The Sac pick could be a top 5 pick next year and at that point a player like Reddish, Zion, Bol or someone else could be a better prospect then the player the Cs trade up for this year.

As good as the 5 bigs I listed are or can be all 5 have blemishes as prospects. Ayton lacks desire and awareness on D, Bagely is one hand dominate, lacks ideal length, and has questionable awareness on D, Bamba needs to get stronger and prove he has an offensive game, Jackson is still raw in a lot of facets of the game and will need time, and Carter as the most well polished and NBA ready lacks the ceiling of the other 4.   

Giving up all those picks can be scaring the the quick changing nature of the NBA. For all we know Giannis, Davis, KAT or another "star" might get upset early next season and demand a trade at the deadline. The Cs are right now prime to jump on any such occurrence.



Conclusion   

With all that being said I say go for it. Ainge has constructed an amazing roster and the potential to add a high end big man is to good to pass on. The question is who makes the trade.

Memphis #4 has been mentioned but they have no need for Rozier and including Brown is a horrible idea

Atlanta #3
seems too high to get to but maybe they look to create a 3 way where they trade down with another team. Something like Bulls #7, Portis and a future pick from the  for #3 (allowing bulls to get Porter). Then they trade away Schroeder for ? (maybe to Pacers for #23 and something else) and make a #7 for Rozier and Sac pick (as long as a center is available)

Magic #6
this makes the most sense Rozier, #27 and the Sac pick is a nice haul for the #6. The magic are likely going to have to clean out their roster and go into a longer rebuild/reload. They have Issac as a potential future piece and Gordon as a RFA. Bringing in Rozier and retaining Gordon while looking to move Vuc and Fournier for youth/pics could be a good start. They would then likely be right back into the lottery next year with their pick and the Kings. At that point they could figure out their Issac and Gordon fit and hopefully add two starters to their team.

Offline Moranis

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19136
  • Tommy Points: 905
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft. 

Offline KungPoweChicken

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1965
  • Tommy Points: 220
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.



Agreed.

Offline footey

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7807
  • Tommy Points: 953
I agree with Moranis.

You lay out a great foundation of pros and cons, so TP for that.

Offline Quetzalcoatl

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3925
  • Tommy Points: 404
The Sac and Memphis picks are super valuable, I don't think I'd trade them but maybe would for the 4th pick in the moment.  We're going to have cap issues and those picks are going to be insanely helpful and both will likely be in the lottery.

Offline tstorey_97

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1028
  • Tommy Points: 137
Good post cfan38.

Ainge behavior suggests a move will be on the table til draft night...it's how he operates. Brown is the only asset that gets Ainge into the top 6 and why should he break up one of the best rosters in the NBA for an unproven 19 year old big?

Offline wdleehi

  • In The Rafters
  • Walter Brown
  • ********************************
  • Posts: 32767
  • Tommy Points: 1526
  • Pre-school artwork
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.   

Knicks: Irving, Drummond, Marcus Morris, S. Muhammad, C. Lee, Sullinger, Hield, M. Chriss , V. Carter, T. Zeller, N. Cole, T. Prince, Livio Jean-Charles, Tyler Ulis, N. Collison

Offline td450

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 703
  • Tommy Points: 62
These types of exchanges are extremely situational and only a few teams are involved, so almost any value proposition could be seen in a wide variety of ways.

Some relevant trades:
2013 - Jazz get #9
Timberwolves get #14 and #21

2016 - Suns get #8
Sacramento gets Bogdanovic, #13, #28 and a 2nd rounder

The failure to make a deal for Justise Winslow

You just never know.

The gap between perceptions on #4 and picks #8 through 10 is huge. I think the bargain here is Wendell Carter, primarily because he may be had at #8-10, which should be much easier to get.

I would be surprised if Terry Rozier, who as seen as a quality two way player that could start for many of these teams, the Sac pick, and some other lesser resources wouldn't be a good idea for New York or Chicago.

I even think it makes some legitimate sense for the Magic. Getting a young starter now and a real shot at a top wing next year is a pretty good haul. Their best assets are Gordon, Vucevic and Isaac and their best point guard is DJ Augustine. They don't need a big man who needs a few years. If Porter and Doncic are gone they might bite.



Online green_bballers13

  • NCE
  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2180
  • Tommy Points: 266
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.

Offline chilidawg

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1999
  • Tommy Points: 260
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

I'd agree with you.  At very least I wouldn't give up more than that to move up.  Bottom line is that none of us know what it will or won't take to move up, so state your opinions and realize that they are only your opinion.

Offline Moranis

  • Global Moderator
  • Bill Sharman
  • *******************
  • Posts: 19136
  • Tommy Points: 905
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.
The Sacramento pick is unlikely to be a top 5 pick and if it lands #1 it turns into Philly's pick (likely in mid to upper 20's).  Rozier is fine, but he is old, has just 1 year left, and there are real concerns that he could be a legit starting PG.  That package isn't landing a top 7 pick.  It just isn't. 

Offline Fafnir

  • John Havlicek
  • ****************************
  • Posts: 28636
  • Tommy Points: 1155
Twice we've seen teams move to 10 and 11 for two lower picks in that same draft.

Each draft is different but it all depends on the team's draft board. A lot of times teams in the mid lottery only like 4 or 5 guys in a draft and just want to move out if they don't get one of those.

I'm skeptical it happens, but mostly because 4 first round picks didn't get it done for Justice Winslow because people really liked that draft class. I think teams are busy talking themselves into this draft class.

Offline hwangjini_1

  • Frank Ramsey
  • ************
  • Posts: 12760
  • Tommy Points: 1616
  • bammokja
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.
that's right, after all, it might even be a boat!!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKZJdaiJF84
I believe Gandhi is the only person who knew about real democracy not democracy as the right to go and buy what you want, but democracy as the responsibility to be accountable to everyone around you. Democracy begins with freedom from hunger, freedom from unemployment, freedom from fear, and freedom from hatred.
- Vandana Shiva

Online DefenseWinsChamps

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2261
  • Tommy Points: 417
I keep hearing different "weaknesses" for Bagley, but it seems more and more like nitpicking.

He's one hand dominate? That may be true, but so are most other big men. We just notice it more with lefties.

He lacks ideal length? It's not like he is undersized. He's just not oversized. His length is the same as Kevin Love and Al Horford, who both play significant minutes at center.

He has questionable defensive awareness? Kind of, but I think he has better awareness than Ayton. He is also highly agile and has the ability to defend on the perimeter, which is a must for NBA bigs in the playoffs.

His shooting isn't reliable? He shot 40% from 3. His free throws were in the low 60s (remind you of Brown?). His form is on balance with a solid release -- and it is highly consistent.

The only guys I'd trade up for in this draft are Bagley and Doncic. Even then, I'm not include are starting 5 in the discussions (Horford, Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Irving).

Offline wdleehi

  • In The Rafters
  • Walter Brown
  • ********************************
  • Posts: 32767
  • Tommy Points: 1526
  • Pre-school artwork
I think you are seriously overestimating the value of the Sacramento pick and Rozier.  There is no way those assets, plus some super late 1st rounders, are enough to move into the top 7 of the draft.


I disagree with that.   I think it very well could put the Celtics into the 4-6 range.

It's not what Celtics fans think of Rozier- it depends on what other GMs think. While Rozier had a good year, I think it's hard to pencil him in as an all star (at the deepest position in the game). I'm not trading a top 10 pick for a guy that I think lacks all star potential.


Rozier and a likely top lotto pick from the Kings (plus possible another late draft pick).

Not just Rozier. 

For a pick between 4 and 6.   I could see that happening. 

Knicks: Irving, Drummond, Marcus Morris, S. Muhammad, C. Lee, Sullinger, Hield, M. Chriss , V. Carter, T. Zeller, N. Cole, T. Prince, Livio Jean-Charles, Tyler Ulis, N. Collison