Poll

Resign?

Re-sign him at a price over $14 mill. He does a lot for the team
20 (14.6%)
Too much money. The Limited offense isn't worth this much
117 (85.4%)

Total Members Voted: 137

Author Topic: Marcus Smart RFA [Merged - finalizing 4 year deal]  (Read 42288 times)

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Offline td450

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you make an intriguing point, but I think we would be even crazier to sign him for anything more than $10 mill a year. Remember were going to have to pay Brown and Tatum big bucks eventually, and theres just not enough money to go around.
Brown is more expendable than Smart.  We have his Bird rights.  We can and should pay luxury tax to keep him because our window with Horford is now.  If that means you have to move Brown after next year, so be it.  If that means you sign Brown and Rozier and let Kyrie walk, so be it.  Tatum is non-negotiable, Celtic for life at all costs.
If you took two teams that were identical, and put Jaylen Brown on one and Marcus Smart on the other, the Jaylen team would win 80% of the games.

If you asked every single GM in the league whether they could have Marcus and a 10th pick in the draft or Jaylen, you wouldn't find a single GM that would take Marcus and the pick.

I literally had to re-read Pick's post to see if he meant 'expensive' rather than 'expendable' and nope. I totally agree with your assessment. GMs see Brown as a core talent that you build around; Smart is the type of player you put around the Browns of the world. There is really no comparison between the two other than they are both currently Celtics...and I actually like Smart and hope we can keep him for a reasonable price.
Expendable.  Smart is harder to replace.  There are only a few guys in the league who can do what he does.  There are ~25 Jaylen Browns.
You know who can replace what Marcus does? Jaylen Brown can.

Marcus makes some exciting defensive plays, but he isn't any better a defender overall than Jaylen was last year. In one or two years, Jaylen will be a substantially more valuable defender. He's much bigger and a far superior athlete and works just as hard as Marcus does.

Jaylen is 21. Saying there are other players who can replace him is a matter of when. Could a number of other players give the same value to the C's that he did last year? Of course.

What do you expect that answer to be when Jaylen is 24, like Marcus is now? He will be an all-NBA player, and Marcus will still be shooting under 40%.



Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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you make an intriguing point, but I think we would be even crazier to sign him for anything more than $10 mill a year. Remember were going to have to pay Brown and Tatum big bucks eventually, and theres just not enough money to go around.
Brown is more expendable than Smart.  We have his Bird rights.  We can and should pay luxury tax to keep him because our window with Horford is now.  If that means you have to move Brown after next year, so be it.  If that means you sign Brown and Rozier and let Kyrie walk, so be it.  Tatum is non-negotiable, Celtic for life at all costs.
If you took two teams that were identical, and put Jaylen Brown on one and Marcus Smart on the other, the Jaylen team would win 80% of the games.

If you asked every single GM in the league whether they could have Marcus and a 10th pick in the draft or Jaylen, you wouldn't find a single GM that would take Marcus and the pick.

I literally had to re-read Pick's post to see if he meant 'expensive' rather than 'expendable' and nope. I totally agree with your assessment. GMs see Brown as a core talent that you build around; Smart is the type of player you put around the Browns of the world. There is really no comparison between the two other than they are both currently Celtics...and I actually like Smart and hope we can keep him for a reasonable price.
Expendable.  Smart is harder to replace.  There are only a few guys in the league who can do what he does.  There are ~25 Jaylen Browns.
You know who can replace what Marcus does? Jaylen Brown can.

Marcus makes some exciting defensive plays, but he isn't any better a defender overall than Jaylen was last year. In one or two years, Jaylen will be a substantially more valuable defender. He's much bigger and a far superior athlete and works just as hard as Marcus does.

Jaylen is 21. Saying there are other players who can replace him is a matter of when. Could a number of other players give the same value to the C's that he did last year? Of course.

What do you expect that answer to be when Jaylen is 24, like Marcus is now? He will be an all-NBA player, and Marcus will still be shooting under 40%.

I agree. We thought we would take a step down defensively this year because we lost Crowder and Bradley. We thought there was no way we would be better.

Jaylen Brown is a big reason why we were one of the top defenses in the league. His versatility and understanding of team concepts were much better than Bradley's ever were (although Bradley was a superior one-on-one defender on the perimeter).

Talented players make you forget about lost role players pretty quick.

Offline PickNRoll

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you make an intriguing point, but I think we would be even crazier to sign him for anything more than $10 mill a year. Remember were going to have to pay Brown and Tatum big bucks eventually, and theres just not enough money to go around.
Brown is more expendable than Smart.  We have his Bird rights.  We can and should pay luxury tax to keep him because our window with Horford is now.  If that means you have to move Brown after next year, so be it.  If that means you sign Brown and Rozier and let Kyrie walk, so be it.  Tatum is non-negotiable, Celtic for life at all costs.
If you took two teams that were identical, and put Jaylen Brown on one and Marcus Smart on the other, the Jaylen team would win 80% of the games.

If you asked every single GM in the league whether they could have Marcus and a 10th pick in the draft or Jaylen, you wouldn't find a single GM that would take Marcus and the pick.

I literally had to re-read Pick's post to see if he meant 'expensive' rather than 'expendable' and nope. I totally agree with your assessment. GMs see Brown as a core talent that you build around; Smart is the type of player you put around the Browns of the world. There is really no comparison between the two other than they are both currently Celtics...and I actually like Smart and hope we can keep him for a reasonable price.
Expendable.  Smart is harder to replace.  There are only a few guys in the league who can do what he does.  There are ~25 Jaylen Browns.
You know who can replace what Marcus does? Jaylen Brown can.

Marcus makes some exciting defensive plays, but he isn't any better a defender overall than Jaylen was last year. In one or two years, Jaylen will be a substantially more valuable defender. He's much bigger and a far superior athlete and works just as hard as Marcus does.

Jaylen is 21. Saying there are other players who can replace him is a matter of when. Could a number of other players give the same value to the C's that he did last year? Of course.

What do you expect that answer to be when Jaylen is 24, like Marcus is now? He will be an all-NBA player, and Marcus will still be shooting under 40%.
The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.

Offline moiso

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I agree with PickNroll's last post.  Brown is a plus defender, he's fine.  But to say he works as hard on defense as Smart does is crazy.  Smart is an absolute psychopath who doesn't care about keeping his body in one piece.  I have no idea how he seems to come up with seemingly every single loose ball, even when there could be several players much closer to the ball than him.  Brown isn't close to being on that level.

Offline CF033

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I'm mixed on Marcus Smart, while he is scrappy as heck and can annoy the ever living crud out of the opposition he is a massive liability on offense and really has no business taking half the shots that he takes.

I wonder how many games that Marcus made a big winning play in were close because before the big play he clanged 5 straight 3s and let the other team back in it.

Although I think I'd want to keep him just for what he did to James Harden.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2018, 01:21:13 PM by CF033 »

Offline gift

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you make an intriguing point, but I think we would be even crazier to sign him for anything more than $10 mill a year. Remember were going to have to pay Brown and Tatum big bucks eventually, and theres just not enough money to go around.
Brown is more expendable than Smart.  We have his Bird rights.  We can and should pay luxury tax to keep him because our window with Horford is now.  If that means you have to move Brown after next year, so be it.  If that means you sign Brown and Rozier and let Kyrie walk, so be it.  Tatum is non-negotiable, Celtic for life at all costs.
If you took two teams that were identical, and put Jaylen Brown on one and Marcus Smart on the other, the Jaylen team would win 80% of the games.

If you asked every single GM in the league whether they could have Marcus and a 10th pick in the draft or Jaylen, you wouldn't find a single GM that would take Marcus and the pick.

I literally had to re-read Pick's post to see if he meant 'expensive' rather than 'expendable' and nope. I totally agree with your assessment. GMs see Brown as a core talent that you build around; Smart is the type of player you put around the Browns of the world. There is really no comparison between the two other than they are both currently Celtics...and I actually like Smart and hope we can keep him for a reasonable price.
Expendable.  Smart is harder to replace.  There are only a few guys in the league who can do what he does.  There are ~25 Jaylen Browns.
You know who can replace what Marcus does? Jaylen Brown can.

Marcus makes some exciting defensive plays, but he isn't any better a defender overall than Jaylen was last year. In one or two years, Jaylen will be a substantially more valuable defender. He's much bigger and a far superior athlete and works just as hard as Marcus does.

Jaylen is 21. Saying there are other players who can replace him is a matter of when. Could a number of other players give the same value to the C's that he did last year? Of course.

What do you expect that answer to be when Jaylen is 24, like Marcus is now? He will be an all-NBA player, and Marcus will still be shooting under 40%.
The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.

I somewhat agree. I've never seen a player consistently make brilliant plays like Marcus Smart. He's a savant.

That being said, there are times when he, too, gambles or doesn't close out on his man or loses his man. I don't have a good sense of how often it happens or the impact overall. If the game is on the line for one or two possessions, I want Marcus Smart as my main defender. But over the course of the game, I will admit there might be room for another plus defender to close the gap enough, combined with the offensive output, to be worth more to the team.

Offline Diggles

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Marcus Smart       Test the open market and let us do a sign n trade if its to rich for our blood....    10 million a year for 4 years..... 

Offline kozlodoev

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The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.
Yeah, I think I can live with 0.8 fewer contested shots per game as the cost of not playing 4 on 5 on offense.
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Offline PickNRoll

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The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.
Yeah, I think I can live with 0.8 fewer contested shots per game as the cost of not playing 4 on 5 on offense.
If we're ignoring the steals, fouls, charges, deflections, loose balls, assists, screens, box-outs, change-of-possession plays, then you're right.

Offline Roy H.

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The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.
Yeah, I think I can live with 0.8 fewer contested shots per game as the cost of not playing 4 on 5 on offense.
If we're ignoring the steals, fouls, charges, deflections, loose balls, assists, screens, box-outs, change-of-possession plays, then you're right.

Neither takes many charges, and Jaylen contests more shots and gets more loose balls. Jaylen has fewer turnovers and draws more fouls.


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Offline droopdog7

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you make an intriguing point, but I think we would be even crazier to sign him for anything more than $10 mill a year. Remember were going to have to pay Brown and Tatum big bucks eventually, and theres just not enough money to go around.
Brown is more expendable than Smart.  We have his Bird rights.  We can and should pay luxury tax to keep him because our window with Horford is now.  If that means you have to move Brown after next year, so be it.  If that means you sign Brown and Rozier and let Kyrie walk, so be it.  Tatum is non-negotiable, Celtic for life at all costs.
If you took two teams that were identical, and put Jaylen Brown on one and Marcus Smart on the other, the Jaylen team would win 80% of the games.

If you asked every single GM in the league whether they could have Marcus and a 10th pick in the draft or Jaylen, you wouldn't find a single GM that would take Marcus and the pick.

I literally had to re-read Pick's post to see if he meant 'expensive' rather than 'expendable' and nope. I totally agree with your assessment. GMs see Brown as a core talent that you build around; Smart is the type of player you put around the Browns of the world. There is really no comparison between the two other than they are both currently Celtics...and I actually like Smart and hope we can keep him for a reasonable price.
Expendable.  Smart is harder to replace.  There are only a few guys in the league who can do what he does.  There are ~25 Jaylen Browns.
You know who can replace what Marcus does? Jaylen Brown can.

Marcus makes some exciting defensive plays, but he isn't any better a defender overall than Jaylen was last year. In one or two years, Jaylen will be a substantially more valuable defender. He's much bigger and a far superior athlete and works just as hard as Marcus does.

Jaylen is 21. Saying there are other players who can replace him is a matter of when. Could a number of other players give the same value to the C's that he did last year? Of course.

What do you expect that answer to be when Jaylen is 24, like Marcus is now? He will be an all-NBA player, and Marcus will still be shooting under 40%.
The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.

I somewhat agree. I've never seen a player consistently make brilliant plays like Marcus Smart. He's a savant.

That being said, there are times when he, too, gambles or doesn't close out on his man or loses his man. I don't have a good sense of how often it happens or the impact overall. If the game is on the line for one or two possessions, I want Marcus Smart as my main defender. But over the course of the game, I will admit there might be room for another plus defender to close the gap enough, combined with the offensive output, to be worth more to the team.
In a vacuum, I would guess that 10 out of 10 GM's would pick brown over smart if given the choice.

But I also agree that smart brings things that no one else on this team does or can.  And it's not just the winning plays idea, especially when if it's about making three's late in games which I think it a myth (though I haven't researched the numbers).  Winning plays are also hot and cold, and not something you can depend on as consistently as say, putting the ball in Lebron's hands to go get a bucket. 

The one thing you CAN depend on from marcus (and does have a consistent impact on the game) is the energy.  There is no question in my mind that marcus' balls out approach lifts his teammates to match it, less they look like slackers.   It's essentially the same thing you get from the home crowd, and I don't think anyone would argue that home court isn't an advantage.

Offline PickNRoll

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The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.
Yeah, I think I can live with 0.8 fewer contested shots per game as the cost of not playing 4 on 5 on offense.
If we're ignoring the steals, fouls, charges, deflections, loose balls, assists, screens, box-outs, change-of-possession plays, then you're right.

Neither takes many charges, and Jaylen contests more shots and gets more loose balls. Jaylen has fewer turnovers and draws more fouls.
He doesn't contest more shots or get to more loose balls.  I linked to the stats page in my OP.  You're not accounting for fouls Smart draws on defense.  Smart's Asst/TO is 2.0.  Jaylen 0.8.  Every PG in the league naturally had more TO/36 than a spot-up/post-up SG.

Offline Diggles

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Say you are going to war......  Marcus Smart is like having a special weapon that might be needed to get into a building.  Once you are inside you do not need him, but you couldn't have done it with out him.   

At 14 million....... I just might lose this battle, but not the war! 

Offline PickNRoll

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Say you are going to war......  Marcus Smart is like having a special weapon that might be needed to get into a building.  Once you are inside you do not need him, but you couldn't have done it with out him.   

At 14 million....... I just might lose this battle, but not the war!
Excellent analogy!  TP!

Offline Roy H.

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The plays Marcus makes aren't just exciting, they're winning .  They result in change of possession.  Brown is a solid, versatile defender, but not an impact defender.  He doesn't block shots, take charges, bait fouls, disrupt passing lanes.  He's not impactful when he's off the ball.  He's not a magnet for loose balls.  Smart contests more shots, more 3's, gets to more loose balls, deflects more passes, boxes out better:

https://stats.nba.com/players/hustle/?Season=2017-18&SeasonType=Playoffs&TeamID=1610612738&sort=CONTESTED_SHOTS_2PT&dir=1

The only place Jaylen is better is bothering shooters with size, like a Derozan e.g.  And if you're still on about shooting %, you'll never get it.   Don't get me wrong, I want to keep Jaylen too, but they're completely different players.
Yeah, I think I can live with 0.8 fewer contested shots per game as the cost of not playing 4 on 5 on offense.
If we're ignoring the steals, fouls, charges, deflections, loose balls, assists, screens, box-outs, change-of-possession plays, then you're right.

Neither takes many charges, and Jaylen contests more shots and gets more loose balls. Jaylen has fewer turnovers and draws more fouls.
He doesn't contest more shots or get to more loose balls.  I linked to the stats page in my OP.  You're not accounting for fouls Smart draws on defense.  Smart's Asst/TO is 2.0.  Jaylen 0.8.  Every PG in the league naturally had more TO/36 than a spot-up/post-up SG.

You linked playoff stats.


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