Author Topic: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis  (Read 4813 times)

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Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« on: May 24, 2018, 12:46:43 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Ref #1 for game 5 was Ken Mauer, and true to his trends, the home team and favorite won.

I predict that ref #1 for tomorrow's game will be Marc Davis.  I correctly predicted that Ken Mauer and Ed Malloy would be refs last night, and looked at their trends, so I'm curious about game 6.

If it's Davis, we're in for an uphill battle based on the trends, which do have some value.  Home teams are 4-1 SU in his games in the 2nd Round and Conference finals, and favorites which the Cavs are, are 4-0 ATS in the 2nd Round and Conference finals. 

If my brain doesn't fail I'll update tomorrow with the ref info. 
2023 Non-Active / Non-NBA75 Fantasy Draft, ChiBulls:

PG: Deron Williams 07-08 / M.R. Richardson 80-81 / J. Wall 16-17
SG: David Thompson 77-78 / Hersey Hawkins 96-97
SF: Tracy McGrady 02-03 / Tayshaun Prince 06-07
PF: Larry Nance Sr 91-92 / Blake Griffin 13-14
C: Bob Lanier 76-77 / Brad Daugherty 92-93 / M. Camby 06-07

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2018, 12:50:54 PM »

Offline celticinorlando

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Here are tonight's:

Golden State @ Houston   James Capers (#19)   Eric Lewis (#42)   Zach Zarba (#15)   Bill Spooner (#22)

I still say the crew will have Brothers in it.


Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2018, 12:58:33 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Here are tonight's:

Golden State @ Houston   James Capers (#19)   Eric Lewis (#42)   Zach Zarba (#15)   Bill Spooner (#22)

I still say the crew will have Brothers in it.

Brothers was in the replay booth last night so I'm afraid we're more likely to see him in game 7.
2023 Non-Active / Non-NBA75 Fantasy Draft, ChiBulls:

PG: Deron Williams 07-08 / M.R. Richardson 80-81 / J. Wall 16-17
SG: David Thompson 77-78 / Hersey Hawkins 96-97
SF: Tracy McGrady 02-03 / Tayshaun Prince 06-07
PF: Larry Nance Sr 91-92 / Blake Griffin 13-14
C: Bob Lanier 76-77 / Brad Daugherty 92-93 / M. Camby 06-07

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2018, 01:06:23 PM »

Offline celticinorlando

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Here are tonight's:

Golden State @ Houston   James Capers (#19)   Eric Lewis (#42)   Zach Zarba (#15)   Bill Spooner (#22)

I still say the crew will have Brothers in it.

Brothers was in the replay booth last night so I'm afraid we're more likely to see him in game 7.

Rather have him at home than in Cleveland..

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2018, 01:54:56 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Here are tonight's:

Golden State @ Houston   James Capers (#19)   Eric Lewis (#42)   Zach Zarba (#15)   Bill Spooner (#22)

I still say the crew will have Brothers in it.

Brothers was in the replay booth last night so I'm afraid we're more likely to see him in game 7.

Rather have him at home than in Cleveland..

I don't think I agree. 

If we get fair calls at home in game 7, I think we almost certainly take the series, so I would rather keep Tony Brothers as far away from game 7 as possible.

Scott Foster, Derrick Stafford, and potentially Mike Callahan could also be dicey game 7 refs based on trends. 
2023 Non-Active / Non-NBA75 Fantasy Draft, ChiBulls:

PG: Deron Williams 07-08 / M.R. Richardson 80-81 / J. Wall 16-17
SG: David Thompson 77-78 / Hersey Hawkins 96-97
SF: Tracy McGrady 02-03 / Tayshaun Prince 06-07
PF: Larry Nance Sr 91-92 / Blake Griffin 13-14
C: Bob Lanier 76-77 / Brad Daugherty 92-93 / M. Camby 06-07

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2018, 03:07:22 PM »

Offline jmen788

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The NBA is so sad in how much the refs impact the outcomes of games. They might as well include refs in basketball trading cards as they are just as well known as the players at this point. We need to avoid Foster & Brothers these next 2 games.

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2018, 03:27:31 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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The NBA is so sad in how much the refs impact the outcomes of games. They might as well include refs in basketball trading cards as they are just as well known as the players at this point. We need to avoid Foster & Brothers these next 2 games.

Yeah, it's really sad.

And unfortunately I think we're getting at least one (or both) in one of these next two games.

I'd much rather it be Game 6 than Game 7 to be honest. If we lose Game 6 with Foster/Brothers not reffing and then get one (or both) for Game 7, we're screwed big time.
"Tough times never last, but tough people do." - Robert H. Schuller

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2018, 03:30:04 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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The NBA is so sad in how much the refs impact the outcomes of games. They might as well include refs in basketball trading cards as they are just as well known as the players at this point. We need to avoid Foster & Brothers these next 2 games.

Tony Brothers is the worst.  He won't do game 6.  I hope he doesn't do game 7.  I've got a fair amount of cash riding on the Celtics in the series and the only reason I'd make a hedge bet today at Cavs +160 is fear that Brothers is ref #1 in game 7.  But does the NBA have the balls?

Purely in terms of trends, Marc Davis is the worst non-Tony Brothers ref I could find for game 6, and he's due to ref one.  Home teams and favorites always win, and teams on the brink of elimination are 1-0. 

Scott Foster is a series extender, but I'm more leery of Davis because he hasn't reffed in awhile, and because Foster's trends favor underdogs against the spread, so while he'd probably steer the Cavs to victory, he'd try to keep it close. 

Mike Callahan could also be a bad draw for game 6, as home teams are 5-0 SU, but he has favorable tendencies in that he isn't afraid to send a team fishing (1-2 record for teams facing elimination) and the games stay close, as Underdogs are 4-0-1 against the spread. 

I think it's gonna be Davis as ref #1 in game 6.  Then I'll pray to God that Tony Brothers is in Saturday's GS-Houston crew, so I can be certain he won't be there to screw us in game 7.

*Note: I know these trends are correlation more than causation, but they can be very insightful things to consider in the context of other information if one were to speculate on playoff basketball, in my experience. 

2023 Non-Active / Non-NBA75 Fantasy Draft, ChiBulls:

PG: Deron Williams 07-08 / M.R. Richardson 80-81 / J. Wall 16-17
SG: David Thompson 77-78 / Hersey Hawkins 96-97
SF: Tracy McGrady 02-03 / Tayshaun Prince 06-07
PF: Larry Nance Sr 91-92 / Blake Griffin 13-14
C: Bob Lanier 76-77 / Brad Daugherty 92-93 / M. Camby 06-07

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2018, 03:34:10 PM »

Offline jmen788

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The NBA is so sad in how much the refs impact the outcomes of games. They might as well include refs in basketball trading cards as they are just as well known as the players at this point. We need to avoid Foster & Brothers these next 2 games.

Yeah, it's really sad.

And unfortunately I think we're getting at least one (or both) in one of these next two games.

I'd much rather it be Game 6 than Game 7 to be honest. If we lose Game 6 with Foster/Brothers not reffing and then get one (or both) for Game 7, we're screwed big time.

This is what worries me. If we could get both of them (this probably isn't possible) in game 6 then I'd be happy, but if we get 1 each in game 6 and game 7, then I am scared. We *should* win this series, but all it takes is the NBA to intervene with these refs and for LeBron to pull a miracle game in game 7 and we are beyond screwed. I expect this to go 7 so I just want a half-decent crew for game 7. Brothers & Foster are the biggest threats.

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2018, 04:12:40 PM »

Offline TheBigTicket23

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who are in your opinion the best refs? Who are the ones least affective to trends/hometeam/extending series.

I think the refs last night were solid. Missed some calls for both teams but wasnt one-sided.

Brothers and Foster are the worst, that's one thing I did find out these playoffs.

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2018, 04:17:34 PM »

Offline celticinorlando

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who are in your opinion the best refs? Who are the ones least affective to trends/hometeam/extending series.

I think the refs last night were solid. Missed some calls for both teams but wasnt one-sided.

Brothers and Foster are the worst, that's one thing I did find out these playoffs.

The group in Houston tonight is pretty good.

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2018, 04:30:04 PM »

Offline liam

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who are in your opinion the best refs? Who are the ones least affective to trends/hometeam/extending series.

I think the refs last night were solid. Missed some calls for both teams but wasnt one-sided.

Brothers and Foster are the worst, that's one thing I did find out these playoffs.

The group in Houston tonight is pretty good.

The good refs you don't even know there names....

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2018, 06:15:10 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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who are in your opinion the best refs? Who are the ones least affective to trends/hometeam/extending series.

I think the refs last night were solid. Missed some calls for both teams but wasnt one-sided.

Brothers and Foster are the worst, that's one thing I did find out these playoffs.

Zack Zarba is a 50/50 ref.  All the splits for him are at or near 50/50 so he'd be good for either of these games and is pretty consistent. 
2023 Non-Active / Non-NBA75 Fantasy Draft, ChiBulls:

PG: Deron Williams 07-08 / M.R. Richardson 80-81 / J. Wall 16-17
SG: David Thompson 77-78 / Hersey Hawkins 96-97
SF: Tracy McGrady 02-03 / Tayshaun Prince 06-07
PF: Larry Nance Sr 91-92 / Blake Griffin 13-14
C: Bob Lanier 76-77 / Brad Daugherty 92-93 / M. Camby 06-07

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2018, 07:17:34 PM »

Offline BringToughnessBack

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My Cavs friends feel refs cost them game 5 😁 They said the two early fouls on Love were BS and chamged course of game- I guess both teams worry about “bad” calls-

If we play our way and dont miss easy paint shots, I like our chance no matter who is calling game-

Re: Prediction: Ref #1 for Game 6 will be Marc Davis
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2018, 08:16:46 PM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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My Cavs friends feel refs cost them game 5 😁 They said the two early fouls on Love were BS and chamged course of game- I guess both teams worry about “bad” calls-

If we play our way and dont miss easy paint shots, I like our chance no matter who is calling game-

Yeah, that's crap, at least on how it accounts for Love in particular (regardless if calls were BS or not). He pretty much played the whole 1st quarter, and had 2 fouls called on him throughout the whole game. So... meh.