Author Topic: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think  (Read 1010 times)

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Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2018, 12:38:23 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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T Roz gets it:

"'We have a special opportunity,' Rozier said. 'A lot of the guys, we may never get this opportunity again. We have to understand that and come out and fight, and compete like hell.'Ē

Since there is a chance (however big or small) that Rozier might be playing for a team like the Magic next year, this is especially true for him.  :)

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #16 on: May 24, 2018, 12:50:55 PM »

Offline footey

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To have sustained greatness you need one of your superstars (Tom Brady, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan) agree to below market deal.

Otherwise you can forget it. Numbers donít work.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #17 on: May 24, 2018, 12:52:58 PM »

Offline CF033

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I'm appreciating and enjoying the heck out of this run... But I won't be disappointed if we don't win it all.

Actually no matter what happens now I won't be devastated, but that doesn't mean I'm not appreciating it.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #18 on: May 24, 2018, 12:55:55 PM »

Offline seancally

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Not to mention, the league is only getting more and more talented each year. Guys stay good for a long time. There's more good intelligence on how to win. Everything is getting more competitive, in my opinion, if not steadily than as a net gain over time.
"The game honors toughness." - President Stevens

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #19 on: May 24, 2018, 12:59:13 PM »

Offline green_bballers13

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To have sustained greatness you need one of your superstars (Tom Brady, Kevin Durant, Tim Duncan) agree to below market deal.

Otherwise you can forget it. Numbers donít work.

What if you consistently are able to pick top players? Danny has proven (and may continue to prove) his ability to acquire top picks. He traded Pierce and KG. What makes us think he won't trade Tatum, Kyrie, and Jaylen?

Danny Ainge has the assets to keep this window open for as long as he wants.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #20 on: May 24, 2018, 01:40:22 PM »

Offline angryguy77

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I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with all their youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.

But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.

Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.

Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.

The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.

The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.

Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.

The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.

On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.

The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.

I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.

That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.

You must be fun at parties.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #21 on: May 24, 2018, 01:50:44 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with all their youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.

But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.

Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.

Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.

The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.

The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.

Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.

The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.

On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.

The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.

I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.

That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.

You must be fun at parties.

That made me laugh.

Never get too high. Never get too low.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #22 on: May 24, 2018, 02:04:00 PM »

Offline aefgogreen

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Yup, you never know how long you can keep things together.  Now Ainge has done a great job putting together a team that can compete now and in the future, but you're correct in that teams generally overestimate their windows.  This is especially true in days of free agency but there have always been teams that looked like they had great potential and could never get over the top:

- Rockets in the 1980's
- Magic in the 1990's
- Thunder in the 2010's

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #23 on: May 25, 2018, 12:37:34 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Chris Paul hamstring pull.
Iggy injury.
Thompson injury.
Curry doesn't look right.
Lebron exhausted.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #24 on: May 25, 2018, 02:26:13 AM »

Offline GreenEnvy

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A lot of these teams were cut short due to their star player(s) leaving.

The Spurs would have never thought they had a 15-year window, but Duncan was an amazing player and they are a finely ran team.

The Heat had LeBron leave and Bosh become medically inactive. Had that team stayed intact Iím sure they would have made a few more Finals. Thunder got beat by letting Harden go, then seeing Durant walk.

Celtics in 2007 were considered to have a three year window. They came so close 5 seasons later, and if not for injuries would have surely made/won more than they did.

The difference is a GM who understands the cap and continually draft well. Very, very rarely do you see a quality team draft as high as we did the last few years. That can set us up for a sustained run. As the young guys need to get paid, the vets can take less on new contracts.

I think Rozier will be an issue next season and I can see him being delt. I trust Ainge will do the right thing. Smart I feel will be ravines to a modest contract and Baynes should be retained as heís been very good on Embiid and anchors our defense overall. Rozier is obviously a big piece to our puzzle now but heís the guy that could possibly get a contract starting 6-7x what heís going to make next season.

But the rest of the team I believe can be kept together for many years. Hopefully we get good value for Rozier if Ainge HAS to trade him.
I AM A CELTIC