Author Topic: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think  (Read 917 times)

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The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« on: May 24, 2018, 10:36:53 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with all their youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.

But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.

Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.

Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.

The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.

The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.

Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.

The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.

On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.

The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.

I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.

That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2018, 11:17:10 AM by DefenseWinsChamps »

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2018, 10:59:33 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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I hope that the Cs are true contenders for the next 8-12 years with out youth and talent. Ainge has put the Celtics in the best possibly place to do that.

But the contender window always seems smaller than you think. Injuries, cap complications, and improvements on rival teams make it harder than you think to contend.

Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.

Just think about the Thunder with Harden, Ibaka, Westbrook, and Durant. They were in the finals one year and it looked like they were becoming the "Big 3s" rival. Then a Durant injury, salary cap complications, and the rise of the Warriors stopped them from getting back to the finals again.

The Spurs were special, but if I remember right, they never won back-to-back championships. Injuries and the development of competing teams always limiting them.

The Mavs might have won another championship if they were able to keep Chandler.

Even the Cs of a decade ago thought they'd make it to more finals series, but injuries and salary cap complications (not keep key role players) held them back.

The Celtics know -- all too well -- that an injury can change a season. They will face difficult salary cap questions each of the next 4-5 off-seasons, and Ainge needs to get every question answered correctly.

On top of that, you have the Sixers who could get James, Leonard, and/or George. The Bucks have an actually NBA coach now and they may try to make a big move. The Wizards are lurking as a possible destination for Demarcus Cousins. The Pacers have a sneaky amount of young players and cap space this off-season that could result in a second (and possibly third) star next to Oladipo. The Heat are a sleeping giant right now until they have the opportunity to make another big move (or two). That's not even talking about the Raptors, or Cavs, or Pistons.

The Celtics would have to go through any of those teams just to get to the finals. Then they have to face the Warriors, or the Rockets (with James next year?), or the Lakers (with a combination of James, Cousins, Leonard, or George?), or the Pelicans, or the Jazz (who are one wing star away from being contenders), or the Wolves (who will be shopping Wiggins for a legit 3rd banana). Even the Nuggets and the Clippers are scary dark horses if they're able to get another piece or two.

I'm obviously not panicking, but I do think we sometimes overestimate the size of the contention window.

That's why this season can't be gravy. It is so hard to get to the finals, and it is even harder to win them. With the Warriors looking human (is Curry healthy?) and the Rockets looking exhausted (is Paul healthy?) and the Cavs on the ropes, and the Cs in an excellent rhythm defensively, hopefully the Cs treat this season like it is their only chance at an NBA finals, because it might be.

TP.

Iím hoping the window is open at least for several years, but you are so right that there are no guarantees. With a little luck this could actually be our year.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2018, 11:02:28 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Things definitely can go wrong and unravel, that's why I was so devastated when Hayward went down.

I thought this year the team would have a dark horse chance at making and even winning the Finals like the Mavs team in 2011. The fact that they're basically in the position I was optimistic they'd be in with Hayward/Kyrie is amazing.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2018, 11:12:34 AM »

Offline Boston Garden Leprechaun

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Things definitely can go wrong and unravel, that's why I was so devastated when Hayward went down.

I thought this year the team would have a dark horse chance at making and even winning the Finals like the Mavs team in 2011. The fact that they're basically in the position I was optimistic they'd be in with Hayward/Kyrie is amazing.

yep
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Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2018, 11:13:54 AM »

Offline cons

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good points
seize it when its here
you never know

what an amazing run this would be. would have to be the most unexpected championship that I can remember in recent NBA history.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2018, 11:17:07 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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I mean, this is the kind of post you write after we won something.  At this point I'm just enjoying the ride, not worrying about any window.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2018, 11:20:14 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I mean, this is the kind of post you write after we won something.  At this point I'm just enjoying the ride, not worrying about any window.

The whole point is that we should appreciate this run, not counting it as "gravy," but realizing that it is difficult to get to this point.

Rather than taking it for granted this year, let's enjoy it.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2018, 12:02:07 PM »

Offline spikelovetheCelts

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One year at a time. Hopefully We can sign Smart to a one big year deal. Win it and use our 3 picks coming 2019 to replace Rozier and Smart.  All is good as long as Tatum is healthy.
"People look at players, watch them dribble between their legs and they say, 'There's a superstar.'  Well John Havlicek is a superstar, and most of the others are figments of writers' imagination."
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Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2018, 12:05:07 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Just think about the Heat a few years ago. Those guys thought they were gonna win "Not one, not two, not three ..." championships, but more. They won two and they were dangerously close to only winning one.

I may be in the minority here but if this current core can win 2 champiosnhips in the next 4-5 years that would be a massive success.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2018, 12:06:49 PM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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To me this is why we keep Smart and Rozier for next year. You just don't know when your chance is going to come. We should take the strongest team we can into next season.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2018, 12:13:38 PM »

Online jpotter33

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I understand and agree with your underlying point.

But I don't think this scenario is necessarily as relevant to the other scenarios you bring up, as we have a really good mix of vets and youth that make us unique, along with other factors.

We have the seasoned vets on the backside of their career (Horford, Baynes), the stars entering their prime (Kyrie, Hayward), the high-end role player vets in or approaching their prime (Morris, Smart, Rozier), and the stars in the making (Brown, Tatum).

Add on top of this a top-5 coach in the league, a top-5 GM in the league, a world-class organization and ownership, and a bevy of draft picks beyond our own, including one that has top-3 potential and another one that will almost certainly be a lottery pick.

I don't think the league has seen this type of group before that has a legitimate chance of being a serious contender for the next 10-12 years.
Whatever crushes individuality is despotism, by whatever name it may be called and whether it professes to be enforcing the will of God or the injunctions of men.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2018, 12:15:32 PM »

Offline blink

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To me this is why we keep Smart and Rozier for next year. You just don't know when your chance is going to come. We should take the strongest team we can into next season.

I agree with this as well.  Next year looks like our shot.  Gotta keep a great bench in place.  Rozier will be needed at some point next year.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2018, 12:19:19 PM »

Online Donoghus

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8-12 might be a little overly ambitious (maybe not) but certainly 5 to 8 years.

A couple of years ago, I said that if this organization played its cards right with the BKN picks & the cap space, they could be one of those "have your cake & eat it too teams" meaning they could be a contender now & in the future.   They've nailed just about everything so far.  Conference Finals appearance last season & again this year with a chance to go to the Finals. The next challenge (outside of injuries) is going to be cap management & the periphery roster (role players & bench) decisions.

It's actually happening now which is pretty awesome.  So far, Danny & the organization has played this beautifully.


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Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2018, 12:20:42 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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To me this is why we keep Smart and Rozier for next year. You just don't know when your chance is going to come. We should take the strongest team we can into next season.

I agree for next year, that a trade shouldn't be done if it would lessen the talent on the team.

However, I'm not talking about next year.

Re: The Window Is Always Smaller than You Think
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2018, 12:21:06 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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T Roz gets it:

"'We have a special opportunity,' Rozier said. 'A lot of the guys, we may never get this opportunity again. We have to understand that and come out and fight, and compete like hell.'Ē