Author Topic: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract  (Read 3894 times)

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Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #15 on: May 22, 2018, 12:58:08 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Smart drives me nuts. He prefers a three man offensive set with him and the two bigs while the wings sit in the corners. This results in a lot of over dribbling and last second shots. His shot selection is horrible. He has some of the stupidest turnovers that drive me nuts. That behind the back save/pass last night to a Cav under the basket was awful. And he just can't shoot but shoots often because he thinks he can.

Andre Roberson, a similar great defense, intangibles, poor offense player got 3 years/$30 million in a boom market. That market has disappeared. Can't see where, with the current market for a player of his type drying up, where he will get offers over the $9 million per year or so, MLE range.

Unfortunately for Smart, Ainge is going to have to play hardball regarding his contract because he just can't be overpaying for bench role players when so much is going to have to be spent on Tatum, Brown, Irving, Horford and Hayward.
« Last Edit: May 22, 2018, 01:12:36 PM by nickagneta »

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #16 on: May 22, 2018, 12:59:27 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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$10m or so is fair, not only because that's a reasonable estimate for Smart's value, but also because good organizations shouldn't be paying much more than that for role players.

If we keep Rozier, and Hayward, Irving and everyone else stays healthy, it's not like Smart is going to have more time to showcase what he does. Someone offers him a $40million + contract, he should pounce on it.

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #17 on: May 22, 2018, 01:05:23 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
He came no where near a suspendable offense last night. He just took a beating from Lebron.

He gets overly emotional but let's not pretend he almost got himself suspended last night.

I agree. There was no reason to think he was going to get suspended last night.

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #18 on: May 22, 2018, 01:13:20 PM »

Offline Phantom255x

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I've always said that 4 years, 40-44M for Smart makes the most sense.

I think it's possible we have to overpay a bit to keep him though, so maybe 4 years, 48-52M?

Also, after seeing what happened with Noel who rejected a 4/70M offer and took a QO and now will be lucky to even make 70M in career earnings... I'm guessing Smart will sign some sort of lucrative deal this summer, even if it's a 2 year or 3 year deal.

And yeah, Kyrie isn't getting traded.
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Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #19 on: May 22, 2018, 01:13:32 PM »

Online hwangjini_1

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I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
maybe, maybe not. after four years, smart has averaged 8.7 shots per game. in his first four years, rondo averaged 8.95 shots per year. for his career, rondo averages 9.5 shots per game.

smart shoots less times than rondo over their careers.

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Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #20 on: May 22, 2018, 01:23:06 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
maybe, maybe not. after four years, smart has averaged 8.7 shots per game. in his first four years, rondo averaged 8.95 shots per year. for his career, rondo averages 9.5 shots per game.

smart shoots less times than rondo over their careers.
Yeah but...
Per36 Smart averages 10.9 FGA and Rondo 10.7 for their careers

And Rondo's FG% for his career is 46.3% whereas Smart's is 36%

So even though they shoot the same amount of shots per minute when on the floor, Rondo shot so much better, I mean ridiculously better and also created twice as many shots for others, instead of taking stupid shots.Instead of passing to others, Rondo could have shot more. He decided not to, so in that way Moranis is correct.

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #21 on: May 22, 2018, 01:27:35 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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QO.   Basically, let some other team throw some offers at him and see what he is worth.   I don't think it is as much as some of us think.   I think those big number crazy contracts have dried up and teams are watching the cap more. 

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #22 on: May 22, 2018, 01:28:29 PM »

Offline ETNCeltics

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I like Smart, but he shoots way too many 3's and he gets too emotional (some emotion is fine, but he goes way overboard).  Take the end of the game last night, C's had no real shot at winning, but there was Smart being super and overly aggressive with James.  I was really worried he was going to go to far, get suspended, and cost Boston any shot at winning the series.  I don't think he can tone it down, which is the real problem.  He reminds me a lot of Rondo.  Does a lot of the little things, but is just so immature on the court, and unlike Rondo, he doesn't know when to stop shooting.
maybe, maybe not. after four years, smart has averaged 8.7 shots per game. in his first four years, rondo averaged 8.95 shots per year. for his career, rondo averages 9.5 shots per game.

smart shoots less times than rondo over their careers.

Rondo wasn't taking bad 3s. Or, in the case of Rondo and Smart, any 3 is a bad 3.

Rondo just didn't shoot a lot of 3s while he was in Boston. His fg% is 10% higher than Smart's. He was shooting mostly inside of 15 feet, while Smart is jacking up 4 or 5 3s per game, in spite of being one of the league's worst 3 pt shooters.

In no way comparable to Rondo when it comes to the shooting.


Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #23 on: May 22, 2018, 01:31:31 PM »

Offline action781

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I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.

I agree here.  It's not his volume in a vacuum thats unacceptable.  Its his volume relative to his efficiency.  In the regular season, he took 11.5 FGA per 36.  Which is right about as much as how many Horford took (11.9) and Tatum (12.3).  In the playoffs, he's taking 11.6 FGA per 36 which is more than Horford (11.1).  With Kyrie gone, I don't want to kill Smart for his shooting too much as there are more shots to go around now.  If good looks are there, take them.  But he and the team need to start reconsidering whether 3 pointers are good looks for him.  He's shooting those at just 20.4% this postseason and he's jacking them up at a rate that is third highest on the team (5.4 per 36) behind Rozier and Jaylen.  He should not be shooting more 3s than Tatum, Morris, or Horford over a long stretch of time.  That is something very controllable and I think should be fixed.  Tony Parker turns down open 3s all the time and is a considerably better shooter than Smart.  Its ok to turn them down for better looks.
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Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #24 on: May 22, 2018, 01:34:25 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.

I agree here.  It's not his volume in a vacuum thats unacceptable.  Its his volume relative to his efficiency.  In the regular season, he took 11.5 FGA per 36.  Which is right about as much as how many Horford took (11.9) and Tatum (12.3).  In the playoffs, he's taking 11.6 FGA per 36 which is more than Horford (11.1).  With Kyrie gone, I don't want to kill Smart for his shooting too much as there are more shots to go around now.  If good looks are there, take them.  But he and the team need to start reconsidering whether 3 pointers are good looks for him.  He's shooting those at just 20.4% this postseason and he's jacking them up at a rate that is third highest on the team (5.4 per 36) behind Rozier and Jaylen.  He should not be shooting more 3s than Tatum, Morris, or Horford over a long stretch of time.  That is something very controllable and I think should be fixed.  Tony Parker turns down open 3s all the time and is a considerably better shooter than Smart.  Its ok to turn them down for better looks.


It also depends on when the shots were taken.  Was it early of late in the shot clock?


Yes, I would like to see more of those shots going to Horford, Tatum and Brown.

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #25 on: May 22, 2018, 01:41:51 PM »

Offline tonydelk

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Best case scenario is Smart either signs the QO or The C's get him for 9-10 per year.  If he signs the QO the C's can stay out of the luxury tax next year and use an exception to resign baynes or another vet.  I believe his QO is a little over 6m.  We know eventually the C's will be in Luxury Tax and will pay the repeater tax.  It's best financially for the team if they don't pay the Lux Tax next year.  The year after if Kyrie resigns a max deal they have no choice so they can also resign one of Terry and Marcus or Resign Marcus and keep Terry on his QO if he wants to wait to hit unrestricted FA the following year.  I'd be shocked if Marcus took the QO but stranger things have happened.

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #26 on: May 22, 2018, 01:44:08 PM »

Offline mef730

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Here's what it comes down to for me:

I think the deal gets done at 4 years, +/- $11 million per year. Why? Because Marcus Smart, more than any other player on the team, is able to do what he does because of the style of the team. In other words, he wouldn't be nearly as effective elsewhere. I'm hoping that both sides are smart enough to see this (and we all know that the Celtics are; it's the other side I worry about).

Mike

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #27 on: May 22, 2018, 01:46:48 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Here's what it comes down to for me:

I think the deal gets done at 4 years, +/- $11 million per year. Why? Because Marcus Smart, more than any other player on the team, is able to do what he does because of the style of the team. In other words, he wouldn't be nearly as effective elsewhere. I'm hoping that both sides are smart enough to see this (and we all know that the Celtics are; it's the other side I worry about).

Mike
If he wouldn't be as effective elsewhere, other GMs will know this and offer him less. Why should we overpay for him? Pay him what the market dictates. Don't bid against yourself and overpay.

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #28 on: May 22, 2018, 01:48:17 PM »

Offline td450

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One thing in our favor is that his skill set is almost completely complimentary. It is no coincidence that he is great at the end of games when he is the guy everyone else cheats off of. He's valuable to us because he's great at opportunistic plays, but day in, day out, he's just an awful offensive player.

Hopefully the sub .500 teams that normally overbid for middle class players will see this. On a bad team, he isn't the kind of player most teams want to spend on. My worry is that someone will think they can buy some of the Celtic culture by bringing him on board, but $15M is a lot of money for toughness and 36% shooting.

Re: Lowe and Simmons on Smart's Contract
« Reply #29 on: May 22, 2018, 01:51:10 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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I really don't get the thought that Smart shoots too much. In starter minutes he shoots 8-12 times a game, that's fine.

I'd love if he didn't take pull up jumpers when the whole team stops moving which happens once or twice a game, but that's a collective issue of a play breaking down and no one reseting quickly.
He shoots too much because he is perhaps the worst shooter in the history of the game.  If he was shooting layups, sure, shoot away, but someone who 4 years in shooting 4.2 3's a game and hits them at just 29.3% shouldn't shoot them (or at least not anywhere near the rate he does).  It takes away from his overall game and value.
Over the past 2 years, Marcus smart has taken 9.5 shots per game and made about 36.4% of those shots.  I think we can all agree that if he were shooting 46.4%, we'd be fine with that.  With only 9.5 shot attempts, he's basically costing the team ONE MISSED SHOT per game.  I think he more than makes up for that one missed shot with all the other things he does.