Author Topic: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)  (Read 840 times)

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Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Zhaire Smith, Lonny Walker Jr., and Khyri Thomas will all be much better pros than college players. Smith and Thomas will be considered better than Trae Young.
Why? Because all three of the above players are elite athletically and show pretty good play-making and defensive skills. Meanwhile, Trae Young will be one of the most inefficient chuckers since Dejuan Wagner.

Troy Brown Jr. will be a top 10 player in this draft and might be an All-star one day.
Brown shows the potential to be a primary ball-handler and playmaker, but he is a legit 6'7''. He is a good shooter and passer with a very natural feel for the game. In the right situation, people will ask "how did he fall that far?"

Jontay Porter will be to Deandre Ayton what Al Horford is to Lemarcus Aldridge, and that should mean that Porter is a top 5 pick and arguably a better prospect than Ayton.
I think Ayton will be a solid offensive player like Aldridge, but will be only average defensively and a below average passer (ala Aldridge). On the other hand, I think Porter's elite feel for the game will enable him to make his teammates better while being a versatile and effective player.

Jaren Jackson's career will follow a path like Serge Ibaka's, with lingering questions like "Why isn't he better?" and "Why can't we play him in crunch time?"
There were nine games this year where Jackson pulled down 3 rebounds or less, and one game with no rebounds at all. He is raw offensively and I do not believe in his three point shot.

Marvin Bagley will be the best big man from this draft.
Bagley is versatile offensively and defensively. He is a crafty scorer and finisher inside with a high free throw rate, while also shooting 40% from 3. On defense, he may not be an elite shot-blocker, but I think he will be a good team defender with the ability to play post and perimeter defense.

I know I'm running against the grain with a lot of these predictions. I'm asking for civil conversation, more than just "You're wrong about this, this, and this." I'm not looking for hot takes and regurgitations of ESPN's "insights." I'm even willing to change my thoughts on some of these if good argumentations are made. 

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #1 on: May 19, 2018, 10:42:41 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Interesting opinions especially about jontay. I agree with a lot about what you say.  Aytons defensive instincts are very poor. He makes jahlil okafor look smart on D



I also agree about Jaren Jackson being overrated

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #2 on: May 19, 2018, 10:46:36 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I actually agree with your first two. Particularly the first one. Dajuan Wagner is a name I haven't thought of for a looong time. I really like both Zhaire Smith and Troy Brown, and think they will both have long solid careers.

Ayton could well be like Aldrige, but taller and way more athletic. That's the chief difference for me. If Ayton can develop a mid-range game like Aldrige, I think that's a pretty awesome guy to have with that athleticism. It's his motor that has me questioning. Didn't watch as much of Jontay Porter as I would have liked to, but he looks good.

The Jaren Jackson one is really the only one I have a hard time with. His physical attributes, his age and his shooting stroke, combined with his motor should make him quite a nasty player. However, I could see him being like prime Ibaka (the 14-15ppg, 8-9rpg and 3bpg guy) but with more threes. I just think he'll have it for a lot longer than Serge.

Bagley could be awesome, especially if he knocks down his FT's at a better %

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #3 on: May 19, 2018, 10:52:07 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I actually agree with your first two. Particularly the first one. Dajuan Wagner is a name I haven't thought of for a looong time. I really like both Zhaire Smith and Troy Brown, and think they will both have long solid careers.

Ayton could well be like Aldrige, but taller and way more athletic. That's the chief difference for me. If Ayton can develop a mid-range game like Aldrige, I think that's a pretty awesome guy to have with that athleticism. It's his motor that has me questioning. Didn't watch as much of Jontay Porter as I would have liked to, but he looks good.

The Jaren Jackson one is really the only one I have a hard time with. His physical attributes, his age and his shooting stroke, combined with his motor should make him quite a nasty player. However, I could see him being like prime Ibaka (the 14-15ppg, 8-9rpg and 3bpg guy) but with more threes. I just think he'll have it for a lot longer than Serge.

Bagley could be awesome, especially if he knocks down his FT's at a better %

Jackson has a lot of potential, no doubt. You mentioned his shooting stroke and motor. My issue is that a player of his athletic ability and "motor" should not have so many games with so few rebounds, espcially in a Tom Izzo offense. Also, although I like the result of his shooting stroke, I don't like the form. Maybe it stays consistent, but I think it is far more likely he never gets a consistent result with it from 3.

I don't necessarily think he will flame out, but i think he is getting way too much pub for a player of his talents.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2018, 11:08:12 PM »

Offline liam

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I like Jontay Porter as well and he could well fall all the way to 27, but he needs to get in much better shape for the NBA. He has like 14% body fat which is high for an NBA player. If he has a good work ethic and gets in tip top shape it will improve his athleticism and he could be the steal of the draft. He has mad skill, he just needs to get into top physical shape to really excel at the next level.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #5 on: May 19, 2018, 11:10:20 PM »

Offline Smartacus

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Interesting takes, have to admit I am way behind on Jontay Porter. Did not realize that Michael Porter Jr had a brother in the same class. First time I saw his name mentioned was when people were discussing his high body fat percentage at the combine so I wrote him off but all the tape I've seen on Porter looks great, he's got a very quick release on his three-pointer for a big man.

These past couple weeks I've gotten a lot higher on Wendell Carter Jr. I still think Bagley III is the superior prospect, but there are those out there that think that Carter Jr is the Al Horford of this draft and could end up as the better pro than Bagley.

Right there with you and Troy Brown Jr. While it was surprising that he reclassified after a fairly lukewarm freshman year, I definitely see him as the type that could be a better pro than college player. He just has all around great wing talent.

Not sure what to make if Jaren Jackson Jr. yet. I'd probably say he has the most variance based on where he ends up. I feel good about him on the Mavs, maybe not so great about him on the Hawks for instance. Think he need's a defined role in an established culture compared to a guy like Bagley who will IMO put up numbers regards of situation.

This draft is shaping to be one of the most intriguing in years.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #6 on: May 19, 2018, 11:12:52 PM »

Offline gouki88

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I actually agree with your first two. Particularly the first one. Dajuan Wagner is a name I haven't thought of for a looong time. I really like both Zhaire Smith and Troy Brown, and think they will both have long solid careers.

Ayton could well be like Aldrige, but taller and way more athletic. That's the chief difference for me. If Ayton can develop a mid-range game like Aldrige, I think that's a pretty awesome guy to have with that athleticism. It's his motor that has me questioning. Didn't watch as much of Jontay Porter as I would have liked to, but he looks good.

The Jaren Jackson one is really the only one I have a hard time with. His physical attributes, his age and his shooting stroke, combined with his motor should make him quite a nasty player. However, I could see him being like prime Ibaka (the 14-15ppg, 8-9rpg and 3bpg guy) but with more threes. I just think he'll have it for a lot longer than Serge.

Bagley could be awesome, especially if he knocks down his FT's at a better %

Jackson has a lot of potential, no doubt. You mentioned his shooting stroke and motor. My issue is that a player of his athletic ability and "motor" should not have so many games with so few rebounds, espcially in a Tom Izzo offense. Also, although I like the result of his shooting stroke, I don't like the form. Maybe it stays consistent, but I think it is far more likely he never gets a consistent result with it from 3.

I don't necessarily think he will flame out, but i think he is getting way too much pub for a player of his talents.
That's definitely fair. I think his poor rebounding games are due to a multitude of reasons. I blame Nick Ward and Bridges for poaching them all ;D But I also think inconsistent minutes would've contributed a bit.

I think his form suffers dramatically when he rushes it. He tends to shoot off-balance, and doesn't square up to the ring. I think if he can get on top of that he'll be much nicer from deep. As an 18 y/o I think he can improve that.

I do agree that he is probably getting overhyped, but I think he'll come through as a potential all-defensive guy with a decent enough offensive game. Not a Kristaps like guy, which is a term I've seen thrown around (blocks shots and hits 3's I guess?), but I like him.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #7 on: May 19, 2018, 11:25:55 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I like Jontay Porter as well and he could well fall all the way to 27, but he needs to get in much better shape for the NBA. He has like 14% body fat which is high for an NBA player. If he has a good work ethic and gets in tip top shape it will improve his athleticism and he could be the steal of the draft. He has mad skill, he just needs to get into top physical shape to really excel at the next level.

Agreed. I think he is the youngest or one of the youngest players in this draft. He is still carrying his baby fat.

Whether he has the drive to craft his body is something I don't know. Interviews and references might speak more to that.

The fact that he is as agile and skilled as he is with that high of body fat is promising. Hopefully he is more Paul Milsap than Jared Sullinger.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #8 on: May 20, 2018, 12:41:19 AM »

Offline liam

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I like Jontay Porter as well and he could well fall all the way to 27, but he needs to get in much better shape for the NBA. He has like 14% body fat which is high for an NBA player. If he has a good work ethic and gets in tip top shape it will improve his athleticism and he could be the steal of the draft. He has mad skill, he just needs to get into top physical shape to really excel at the next level.

Agreed. I think he is the youngest or one of the youngest players in this draft. He is still carrying his baby fat.

Whether he has the drive to craft his body is something I don't know. Interviews and references might speak more to that.

The fact that he is as agile and skilled as he is with that high of body fat is promising. Hopefully he is more Paul Milsap than Jared Sullinger.

That's a good take. The kid is intriguing and coming out at 18 and a half.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #9 on: May 20, 2018, 04:48:45 PM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I'll add another one. I think Grayson Allen will be a top 10 player in this draft.

In no particularly order, that means I have Brown, Allen, Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, Jackson, Jontay Porter, Michael Porter, Smith, and Miles Bridges as my top 10 players from this draft in 5 years.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2018, 12:28:13 AM »

Offline rondofan1255

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Love it!

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #11 on: May 31, 2018, 03:20:56 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I'll add another one. I think Grayson Allen will be a top 10 player in this draft.

In no particularly order, that means I have Brown, Allen, Doncic, Ayton, Bagley, Jackson, Jontay Porter, Michael Porter, Smith, and Miles Bridges as my top 10 players from this draft in 5 years.
grayson is back to being a projected 2nd round pick. He is really interesting to see where he will be picked

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2018, 04:18:05 PM »

Offline RLewis35

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Agreed 100 pct on Khyri Thomas.  Big fan and would love for us to draft him.

Re: My Predictions about the 2018 Draft (outlandish, but maybe true)
« Reply #13 on: June 15, 2018, 11:35:07 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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I'm gonna double down on my prediction about Zhaire Smith.

He is rising on draft boards right now. I could see him slipping into the top 8.

I like the Oladipo/Lee comparison, but I think I found a better comp.

Smith played a lot of PF and C at Texas Tech this year. He can finish inside. He has a good free throw rate. He has a very natural feel playing off of other players. He has really high level defense.

That sounds a lot like Jimmy Butler at Marquette. No one would have thought Butler turned into what he did. His toughness, athleticism, IQ, and ability to improve every season made Butler an All-star.

I predict Smith will follow Butler's career path.