Poll

What does it take to get the number 7 pick in this draft

Rozier plus Celtics Pick 2018
14 (31.8%)
Rozier plus The Kings pick 2019
20 (45.5%)
Rozier plus Memphis Pick
10 (22.7%)

Total Members Voted: 44

Author Topic: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft  (Read 2671 times)

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Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #45 on: May 18, 2018, 06:01:08 PM »

Offline Jvalin

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Are people seriously still trying to get more draft picks?  We're in win now mode.  No need for more youth than we already have.
We cannot keep both Rozier and Smart going forward. Rozier is on the rookie scale. Best way to get fair value for him is to trade him for a draft pick (unless we are talking about a blockbuster move for AD/Kawhi or something of that magnitude). I guess we can trade him for a guy on the rookie scale as well, provided that he has 2+ years remaining on his contract. If you have such a guy in mind, feel free to offer your suggestion.
This just isn't true. If Wyc is willing tp pay, there's zero reason we can keep both.
No, we cannot.

payroll in 2019 (assuming we re-sign Smart)

1. Hayward $32,700,690
2. Kyrie $32,400,000  (cap projected to be $108 million, 8-year veteran --> 30% of the cap)
3. Horford $30,123,015
4. Smart let's say $10,000,000
5. Tatum $7,830,000
6. Brown $6,534,829
7. #27 pick $1,920,960
8. Ojeleye $1,618,520
9. Kings 2019 pick : since we got both Brown and Tatum at #3, let's assume we end up with #3 once again 8) --> $7,758,000

I'm not including Yabu and Nader cause, well, they suck. :P Hopefully, they won't be here by then. Not including other future picks either (Clips, Grizzlies, our own pick in 2019). Let's just assume we fill out the rest of the roster with vet minimum guys and a couple of MLE guys as well.

10. $8,568,000 (Non-Taxpayer MLE in 2018-19)
11. $5,659,000 (Taxpayer MLE in 2019-20)
12. vet min $1,603,638
13. vet min $1,603,638
14. vet min $1,603,638
15. Rozier ? ? ? ? ?
Demetrius Jackson $92,857

SUM: $150,016,785 !!!!!!!!!!

That's without counting Rozier's salary. Let's say Rozier's new contract starts at $15,000,000.

$150,016,785 + $15,000,000 = $165,016,785

If projections hold, the luxury tax threshold in 2019-20 will fall at approximately $129.2 million.
https://www.blazersedge.com/2017/9/28/16382498/nba-salary-cap-projections-2018-2019

For a non-repeater, it breaks down like this:

$7.5m for the first $5m over.
$8.75m for the next $5m.
$12.5m for the next $5m.
$16.25m for the next $5m.
$18.75m for the next $5m.
$21.25m for the next $5m.
$23.75m for the next $5m.
$26.25m for the next $5m.

$165,016,785 - $129,200,000 = $35,816,785 over the luxury tax threshold

$7,500,000 + $8,750,000 + $12,500,000 + $16,250,000 + $18,750,000 + $21,250,000 + $23,750,000 + $4,288,121.25 = $113,038,121.25

We are talking about $113 million in luxury tax!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Highest luxury tax bill in NBA history is $90.57 million, paid by the Nets for the 2013-2014 season.
That is a virtually worst case scenario for the Celtics projected salary total 2 years from now. 

1.  Horford could conceivably opt out of the final year of his contract and sign something like a 4 year 80 million reducing his number by maybe 12-13 million.  This alone could nullify like half or more of the tax bill.

2.  Rozier, Smart or anyone else could be traded for lesser salaries and/or draft picks reducing that number greatly.

3.  You are also assuming the C's use all of the exception money.

4.  As we stand the C's have multiple draft picks going into the 19-20 season and there are a million other things they can/could do to alleviate the tax number.
1. Highly unlikely. Not to mention, we 'll then face even bigger problems in 2020. That's when Brown's contract kicks in.

2. The whole premise behind all this, is the argument made by nickagneta that we can re-sign both Smart and Rozier. Besides those two, there isn't anybody else to be traded.

Kyrie - Brown - Hayward - Tatum - Horford are the core of this team. Semi is on a bargain contract. If the goal is to save money, it makes no sense to trade him.

3. The C's are title contenders. Of course they 'll make use of the MLE both this summer and the summer after that. It's possible that they don't use all of the exception money, I give you that.

4. Draft picks wouldn't alleviate the tax number. On the contrary they 'd make the problem even worse. I have included 3 minimum contracts for $1,603,638 each. Number 27 in the 2019 draft has a cap hold of $1,956,480. The same goes for the Clips-Grizzlies picks (assuming they convey in 2019).

Not to mention, it's possible that Smart re-signs for more than $10,000,000 per year or Rozier's first year salary starts at higher than $15,000,000. All things considered, I would argue that the $113 million figure is more or less a conservative estimate.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #46 on: May 18, 2018, 06:15:43 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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I think Terry will want to start after this playoff run and may demand a trade.   This will hurt his trade value for us.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #47 on: May 19, 2018, 05:41:23 PM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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I have seen ZERO indications that Terry would ever demand a trade away from the Celtics.  So I'm gonna have to disagree with you on that one.

Is Terry good enough to start for one of the 30 NBA teams at the PG position? Yes. 

Will Terry demand a trade?  I don't get that feeling AT ALL.

Hell, look at Kawhi Leonard.  All signs indicate he wants out from the Spurs.  He has NEVER made a public trade demand.

Rozier doesn't show even 25% of the signs that Leonard has that he no longer wants to be with the Celtics.

I think Terry will want to start after this playoff run and may demand a trade.   This will hurt his trade value for us.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #48 on: May 21, 2018, 11:17:10 AM »

Online CelticsElite

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Probably too much

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #49 on: May 21, 2018, 12:19:37 PM »

Offline wdleehi

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Rozier with the Celtics is on borrowed time.   He is going to want to be a starter.   As long as Irving is here, it is not going to happen.   



Nor should the Celtics spend starter money to Rozier in the future when they have to pay Brown and Tatum.


So if the Celtics can get what they perceive as value that pushes the window open either wider of longer, they will make the move.


As for the suggested trade, no way the Celtics should give up the kings pick plus Rozier for the # 7 pick.  Top five pick, sure.  Outside of top 5, no.   

Knicks: Irving, Drummond, Marcus Morris, S. Muhammad, C. Lee, Sullinger, Hield, M. Chriss , V. Carter, T. Zeller, N. Cole, T. Prince, Livio Jean-Charles, Tyler Ulis, N. Collison

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #50 on: May 21, 2018, 12:46:44 PM »

Online knuckleballer

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Rozier with the Celtics is on borrowed time.   He is going to want to be a starter.   As long as Irving is here, it is not going to happen.   



Nor should the Celtics spend starter money to Rozier in the future when they have to pay Brown and Tatum.


So if the Celtics can get what they perceive as value that pushes the window open either wider of longer, they will make the move.


As for the suggested trade, no way the Celtics should give up the kings pick plus Rozier for the # 7 pick.  Top five pick, sure.  Outside of top 5, no.

In a vacuum it might be too much for the # 7 pick, but this is the year to get a big guy which is what I think we most need.  Ayton and Bagley won't fall that far.  It's doubtful that Jackson will, but it's possible.  One of Porter, Bamba, or Carter likely will.  I would make that trade for any of those guys assuming Porter's medicals check out.  We have a ton of picks coming and we might as well consolidate for the right player.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2018, 12:54:09 PM by knuckleballer »

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #51 on: May 21, 2018, 12:49:52 PM »

Offline perks-a-beast

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I realllllly want Wendell Carter !
Two choices - the pain of discipline or the pain of regret. The pain of regret hurts a whole lot more.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #52 on: May 21, 2018, 12:56:44 PM »

Online knuckleballer

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I realllllly want Wendell Carter !

Me too.  The other bigs may have more upside, but I can picture him fitting into our team really well.  Everyone compares him to Horford, might as well have him learn from him.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #53 on: May 21, 2018, 02:10:53 PM »

Offline sdceltsfan

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The answer is D: More than we are willing to give

Chicago is set at PG/G, so they are not likely all that interested in a Rozier or Smart +picks kind of trade. They are in the market for the same type of player we are.....front court, solid bigs, and a scoring wing to replace Butlers production.

I think Trae Young doesn't make it past Orlando, barring another team trading up with Dallas/ATL. Therefore, Chicago (with Young drafted ahead) is by default looking at one of: Bamba/Porter/Jackson/Carter/Bagley  (assuming Ayton and Doncic are long gone).

Now, if Doncic were to not declare this season.....I think Boston then obviously hangs on to the SAC pick to enter that sweepstakes next season anyway, but even then, one of these bigs/wings will be available still at #7. Chicago is going to keep their "bird in hand" in this situation, IMO, unless we were offering Jaylen Brown.....and why the hell would we do that?

I think Orlando is the best/ideal trade partner for Danny to target, assuming someone leapfrogs them to take Trae Young, as they will likely be looking for a starting PG.

The most realistic trade partner though would have to be LAC, having two picks back to back. They will likely value Roziers talent as far superior to the majority of prospects they are choosing from. I think Rozier for #12 is about as good as we can expect to get, in a deep draft, where the cliff-like drop off takes place at about #14.

If we lock up Smart, and are planning on re-signing Brown/Tatum/Irving down the road, I don't see the ability to "afford" Rozier on a long-term deal that makes him happy, on top of him not being a starter either. Much better to get another cost-controlled 4-5 year deal with his value at its highest point since we have drafted him. If he had an additional year on his contract, I think he would be able to get that top-10 pick many of the homers are pining for......it's just not realistic from a fiscal perspective for any potential trade partners to do so.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #54 on: May 21, 2018, 02:22:51 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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Rozier with the Celtics is on borrowed time.   He is going to want to be a starter.   As long as Irving is here, it is not going to happen.   



Nor should the Celtics spend starter money to Rozier in the future when they have to pay Brown and Tatum.


So if the Celtics can get what they perceive as value that pushes the window open either wider of longer, they will make the move.


As for the suggested trade, no way the Celtics should give up the kings pick plus Rozier for the # 7 pick.  Top five pick, sure.  Outside of top 5, no.

In a vacuum it might be too much for the # 7 pick, but this is the year to get a big guy which is what I think we most need.  Ayton and Bagley won't fall that far.  It's doubtful that Jackson will, but it's possible.  One of Porter, Bamba, or Carter likely will.  I would make that trade for any of those guys assuming Porter's medicals check out.  We have a ton of picks coming and we might as well consolidate for the right player.

Agreed. I like Jackson and Carter for us, and Porter could end up as good as anyone in this draft.
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #55 on: May 21, 2018, 03:35:14 PM »

Offline dreamgreen

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I can't answer questions like this because I have no idea what will be available at #7. I do know that the C's are a little overstocked in positions 1-3 so IMO I would not want anyone playing those positions. If there is a big on the table that fits in Brad's system that Danny really likes than I would be willing to make a move.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #56 on: May 21, 2018, 03:45:46 PM »

Online mqtcelticsfan

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I just don't see a viable trade up option for us. Any of the picks where a guy worth trading up for is likely to be on the board is going to cost us more than Terry Rozier, and any pick we could get for Rozier isn't likely to help the team as much as he would next year.

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #57 on: May 21, 2018, 04:20:48 PM »

Offline td450

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Rozier with the Celtics is on borrowed time.   He is going to want to be a starter.   As long as Irving is here, it is not going to happen.   



Nor should the Celtics spend starter money to Rozier in the future when they have to pay Brown and Tatum.


So if the Celtics can get what they perceive as value that pushes the window open either wider of longer, they will make the move.


As for the suggested trade, no way the Celtics should give up the kings pick plus Rozier for the # 7 pick.  Top five pick, sure.  Outside of top 5, no.

It may be better to consider what the utility is of any picks for the next few years. The 2019 pick just isn't that valuable to us, even if it is for other teams.

We really only need one or two young bigs for several years out, and it is far more important to get one who could start in a few years rather than two further back in the rotation. Next year looks pretty sparse for big men. This year is an unusually good opportunity.

If we can get Carter or Jackson, I don't care about getting equal value. And trading the pick for an established big man is highly unlikely. The list of quicker NBA big men who impact on defense and have modern offensive skills is very short.

If we do trade Rozier, also using the Sac pick is a no brainer.



 

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #58 on: May 21, 2018, 04:35:22 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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If the Bulls don't like Dunn, then that's one thing. 

But based on how things look, if I were the Celtics, I'd currently be looking at these picks:

#4 Griz (could use a young PG / any talent, we have their future pick)
#6 Magic (need a PG and as much draft capital as possible)
#13 Clippers (they have 2 picks in a row and could be willing to deal, we have their future pick)
#16 Suns (could use a PG if they take Ayton, they have tons of picks, could be willing to deal)

#4 gets you Jaren Jackson Jr.
#6 gets you Wendell Carter Jr.
#13 gets you BPA or the same as #16.
#16 gets you Mitchell Robinson, Jontay Porter or BPA.

To me Wendell Carter Jr at 19 is like Horford at 21, and Jontay Porter I'm not sold on but he does seem like a poor man's Horford.  He's only 19 but is a legit 6'11" and can shoot the 3, has a nice mid-range game and some post-up ability, can pass / rack up assists, rebound, and he gets almost 2 blocks a game in under 25 mins a night.  He's a very versatile, skilled 7 footer.

He just never dunks, explodes at the rim, or drives into the paint.  Not sure how problematic these issues are, but it doesn't seem like a death sentence based on his size / skills.
« Last Edit: May 21, 2018, 04:41:44 PM by smokeablount »
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Poll: What's it take to get the #7 pick in this draft
« Reply #59 on: May 21, 2018, 04:36:51 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I just don't see a viable trade up option for us. Any of the picks where a guy worth trading up for is likely to be on the board is going to cost us more than Terry Rozier, and any pick we could get for Rozier isn't likely to help the team as much as he would next year.
TP