Author Topic: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?  (Read 2399 times)

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Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #30 on: May 16, 2018, 05:55:58 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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I think #16 + #31 from Phoenix is more realistic, if they decided to take Ayton.

That's idiotic. So now that Rozier is a proven NBA baller, he's only worth the exact same slot at which he was selected plus a crappy 2nd rounder? While fans tend to over-project their draft picks, good GMs don't. They know the track record of draft positions. Lets do the same by looking at the last 15 guys selected at #16 (pre-Rozier):

Jusuf Nurkic
Lucas Nogueira
Royce White
Nikola Vucevic
Luke Babbitt
James Johnson
Marreese Speights
Nick Young
Rodney Carney
Joey Graham
Kirk Snyder
Troy Bell
Jiri Welch
Kirk Haston

That's a couple of good players, a couple of role players and a whole lot of busts. That's what is expected from that slot. GMs know this. They know a bird in hand is worth a lot more than two in the bush. At 17/5/5 - which is what Rozier has put up the last 1/2 of a season - and good defense Rozier could be considered the best out of that entire list. That's worth a HELLUVA lot more than the 16th pick. That's insulting.

In fact, let's look at the #6 picks in that same time frame:

Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesley
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Gallinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier

Rozier is better than half of that list already and is a known quantity. So yeah, Rozier for the #6 pick isn't that far fetched when someone actually understands the danger of drafting and how many players outside of the top 5 bust.

Rozier is heading into the last year of his contract which causes him to lose a lot of value.  If Mitchell Robinson falls to the 16th pick and and Danny and Brad are impressed by him, that trade could make sense.  The 31st pick could be used on a pg who would be a third stringer for now and be groomed.  There are some decent/somewhat promising point guards projected to be drafted around there.
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Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #31 on: May 16, 2018, 05:56:24 PM »

Offline perks-a-beast

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Fair deal for the other team bad for us.

Nah. In all likelihood if we hold on to Rozier we lose him for nothing after one more year - ainge is not paying him what other teams will offer, especially when he's got guys like Brown and Tatum he'll need to pay a pretty penny to.  Having a chance to balance out the roster and get a player like Carter or Bamba To man the front line in the future is best. 2019 SAC pick can be used to replace Rozier as that draft is projected to be guard heavy.
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Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #32 on: May 16, 2018, 05:56:40 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #33 on: May 16, 2018, 05:58:39 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.
plus whatís the point of trading for a middle of the pack draft pick ? I get having assets but we are beyond that point of asset collection, we have a good amount of draft picks remaining that we donít even know what to do with. Roll with rozier and see what happens

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #34 on: May 16, 2018, 06:07:26 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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I think #16 + #31 from Phoenix is more realistic, if they decided to take Ayton.

That's idiotic. So now that Rozier is a proven NBA baller, he's only worth the exact same slot at which he was selected plus a crappy 2nd rounder? While fans tend to over-project their draft picks, good GMs don't. They know the track record of draft positions. Lets do the same by looking at the last 15 guys selected at #16 (pre-Rozier):

Jusuf Nurkic
Lucas Nogueira
Royce White
Nikola Vucevic
Luke Babbitt
James Johnson
Marreese Speights
Nick Young
Rodney Carney
Joey Graham
Kirk Snyder
Troy Bell
Jiri Welch
Kirk Haston

That's a couple of good players, a couple of role players and a whole lot of busts. That's what is expected from that slot. GMs know this. They know a bird in hand is worth a lot more than two in the bush. At 17/5/5 - which is what Rozier has put up the last 1/2 of a season - and good defense Rozier could be considered the best out of that entire list. That's worth a HELLUVA lot more than the 16th pick. That's insulting.

In fact, let's look at the #6 picks in that same time frame:

Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesley
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Gallinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier

Rozier is better than half of that list already and is a known quantity. So yeah, Rozier for the #6 pick isn't that far fetched when someone actually understands the danger of drafting and how many players outside of the top 5 bust.

And yet, when you look at history, you see guys like Eric Bledsoe, Jeff Teague and Reggie Jackson being traded for modest returns.  ďIdioticĒ or not, the market hasnít shown much value for PGs lately.


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Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #35 on: May 16, 2018, 06:11:27 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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I think #16 + #31 from Phoenix is more realistic, if they decided to take Ayton.

That's idiotic. So now that Rozier is a proven NBA baller, he's only worth the exact same slot at which he was selected plus a crappy 2nd rounder? While fans tend to over-project their draft picks, good GMs don't. They know the track record of draft positions. Lets do the same by looking at the last 15 guys selected at #16 (pre-Rozier):

Jusuf Nurkic
Lucas Nogueira
Royce White
Nikola Vucevic
Luke Babbitt
James Johnson
Marreese Speights
Nick Young
Rodney Carney
Joey Graham
Kirk Snyder
Troy Bell
Jiri Welch
Kirk Haston

That's a couple of good players, a couple of role players and a whole lot of busts. That's what is expected from that slot. GMs know this. They know a bird in hand is worth a lot more than two in the bush. At 17/5/5 - which is what Rozier has put up the last 1/2 of a season - and good defense Rozier could be considered the best out of that entire list. That's worth a HELLUVA lot more than the 16th pick. That's insulting.

In fact, let's look at the #6 picks in that same time frame:

Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesley
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Gallinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier

Rozier is better than half of that list already and is a known quantity. So yeah, Rozier for the #6 pick isn't that far fetched when someone actually understands the danger of drafting and how many players outside of the top 5 bust.


Your logic is impossible to dispute.  The only thing I can say is that while GMs are mostly smart people and know their jobs better than any of us, they are also prone to human temptation and that is why the potential superstar in the proverbial "bush" is sometimes perceived as more valuable than the solid starter in the hand.   When Milwaukee gets Giannis at 15 and Donovan Mitchell goes at 13, GMs take notice and can convince themselves that they are going to find the next one.   Sometimes the fear of trading the pick that becomes the next GA for Terry Rozier is the fear that holds them back and gives undeserved value to the pick.   Also... the salary control piece has value as well.

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #36 on: May 16, 2018, 06:12:49 PM »

Offline perks-a-beast

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.
plus whatís the point of trading for a middle of the pack draft pick ? I get having assets but we are beyond that point of asset collection, we have a good amount of draft picks remaining that we donít even know what to do with. Roll with rozier and see what happens

The point of trading Rozier for a "middle of the pack" draft pick is that in all likelihood 2 of 3 of Bamba, Jackson, Carter will be available with the 6th pick. All project highly as versatile bigs. I got news for you people - Al Horford is going to be 32 years old. Whose replacing him on the front line? Does Daniel Theis all of a sudden become an all nba player? Best to get someone in here using an asset in Rozier -which we probably have for a year more at best- so that we can have someone good over the height of 6 foot 9 on the roster, because despite recent trends size is still important in the pros.
Two choices - the pain of discipline or the pain of regret. The pain of regret hurts a whole lot more.

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #37 on: May 16, 2018, 06:13:57 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.
plus whatís the point of trading for a middle of the pack draft pick ? I get having assets but we are beyond that point of asset collection, we have a good amount of draft picks remaining that we donít even know what to do with. Roll with rozier and see what happens

I get this sentiment, im just not sure keeping Rozier makes all thay much difference in a title run, hes not gonna be a starter, closer, sixth man, and he will likely be what the fifth option at best? If you can get a long term big man to replace Horford for Rozier than do it. Chicago at 7, New York at 9 strikes ne as teams that wont want to wait and could use a shooting point. Somebody like Bamba or Carter will slip there. Im all foraximizing winning, but I also want to see a long term dynasty and replacibg Horford is a big part of that.

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #38 on: May 16, 2018, 06:17:46 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.
plus whatís the point of trading for a middle of the pack draft pick ? I get having assets but we are beyond that point of asset collection, we have a good amount of draft picks remaining that we donít even know what to do with. Roll with rozier and see what happens

I get this sentiment, im just not sure keeping Rozier makes all thay much difference in a title run, hes not gonna be a starter, closer, sixth man, and he will likely be what the fifth option at best? If you can get a long term big man to replace Horford for Rozier than do it. Chicago at 7, New York at 9 strikes ne as teams that wont want to wait and could use a shooting point. Somebody like Bamba or Carter will slip there. Im all foraximizing winning, but I also want to see a long term dynasty and replacibg Horford is a big part of that.
you donít see how being an insurance policy for kyrie is a good thing? How many healthy seasons has kyrie had? If we want a serious title run, we need serious insurance

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #39 on: May 16, 2018, 06:31:25 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.
plus whatís the point of trading for a middle of the pack draft pick ? I get having assets but we are beyond that point of asset collection, we have a good amount of draft picks remaining that we donít even know what to do with. Roll with rozier and see what happens

I get this sentiment, im just not sure keeping Rozier makes all thay much difference in a title run, hes not gonna be a starter, closer, sixth man, and he will likely be what the fifth option at best? If you can get a long term big man to replace Horford for Rozier than do it. Chicago at 7, New York at 9 strikes ne as teams that wont want to wait and could use a shooting point. Somebody like Bamba or Carter will slip there. Im all foraximizing winning, but I also want to see a long term dynasty and replacibg Horford is a big part of that.
you donít see how being an insurance policy for kyrie is a good thing? How many healthy seasons has kyrie had? If we want a serious title run, we need serious insurance

 Its gonna be very close next year between us and GS assuming health. The point I am making is losing Irving with or without Rozier means the title is out of reach, keeping him is nice insurance but it doesnt get you were u need to go. And if Irving is healthy Rozier doesnt have the same bug role.

Now of course I could be wrong, I need to see how we stack up against GS this year to have a better idea. I just dont know if keeping Rozier for 1 extra year to increase our win chance by some small percent and then losing him is better than picking up a long term piece. Think of how important Horford is to our team, he will be 32 next year. If we can find the next young big I think about it.

Of course so.mych depends on how Ainge evaluates Rozier, draft propects, Smart, our title chances, ect. Im just saying you think about it.

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #40 on: May 16, 2018, 06:35:12 PM »

Offline Roy H.

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


The only question there is whether heíll accept his role for another year. Heís already called himself a starter. Does he go back to the bench for 65+ games next year heading into restricted free agency?

Quote
ďI know in the future that I want to be a starter,Ē Rozier said, according to NBC Sports. ďIím going to be a starter. I came in. I played after Isaiah Thomas, and Iím playing after Kyrie (Irving) now, and thatís the only reason I donít start. Thatís how Iím looking at it. But I know Iíll be a starter in this league.

That was in December. Heís crushed it since then. Can we keep him (and his agent) happy?
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 06:42:01 PM by Roy H. »


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Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #41 on: May 16, 2018, 06:36:20 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.
plus whatís the point of trading for a middle of the pack draft pick ? I get having assets but we are beyond that point of asset collection, we have a good amount of draft picks remaining that we donít even know what to do with. Roll with rozier and see what happens

I get this sentiment, im just not sure keeping Rozier makes all thay much difference in a title run, hes not gonna be a starter, closer, sixth man, and he will likely be what the fifth option at best? If you can get a long term big man to replace Horford for Rozier than do it. Chicago at 7, New York at 9 strikes ne as teams that wont want to wait and could use a shooting point. Somebody like Bamba or Carter will slip there. Im all foraximizing winning, but I also want to see a long term dynasty and replacibg Horford is a big part of that.
you donít see how being an insurance policy for kyrie is a good thing? How many healthy seasons has kyrie had? If we want a serious title run, we need serious insurance

Danny will have a good idea of Kyrie's health while we'll mostly be in the dark.  If Kyrie's prognosis isn't great, then we should keep Rozier, but if the doctors say he should be fine, then I think it would be a good idea to trade him assuming we get what we're looking for in return.

Rozier isn't going to take minutes from Kyrie.  Brown will be the starting shooting guard.  They'll both play around 32 minutes a game leaving another 32 minutes.  Hayward can play some shooting guard and Smart is a better court mate for Irving than Rozier for defensive reasons.  I don't see Rozier getting much more than 15 minutes a game.  Come the playoffs, Irving and Brown will get closer to 40 minutes a game. 

How will Rozier react if his minutes are drastically cut after his recent performance?  I doubt he'd be happy.  He has certainly earned the right to start or at least get around 30 minutes a game for us or another team.  I say trade him if the doctors give Kyrie a good prognosis.  If he gets hurt, Smart will be the primary ball handler which will be much easier to deal with with Hayward back since he can handle the ball and run the offense as well.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 06:41:30 PM by knuckleballer »

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #42 on: May 16, 2018, 06:39:47 PM »

Offline The Oracle

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If the shoe was on the other foot I doubt any of you would be wanting to trade the 6th pick in this draft for Rozier, whether the C's needed a PG or not.  A chance at an elite talent in the top 6 in this draft is worth far, far more than an undersized, average at best starting point guard in the last year of his contract.  Any GM should be fired on the spot for even suggesting such trade with the talent level that is obtainable with that pick.

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #43 on: May 16, 2018, 06:56:44 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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If the shoe was on the other foot I doubt any of you would be wanting to trade the 6th pick in this draft for Rozier, whether the C's needed a PG or not.  A chance at an elite talent in the top 6 in this draft is worth far, far more than an undersized, average at best starting point guard in the last year of his contract.  Any GM should be fired on the spot for even suggesting such trade with the talent level that is obtainable with that pick.

It depends on context. Look at Orlando. They have Gordon, Isaac, Fournier. Some raw young talent with a lot of upside but no real accomplishment to speak of and a few years of learning bad habits in a losing program. Do they want to pick a PG in the draft at 6 and see if he turns into something 2-3 years from now?  What if, instead, they could add a PG who has learned from Kyrie, with excellent physical talent. Someone who's proven he can get an efficient 15-5-5 in the playoffs with very low turnovers, plays solid defense, mentally tough competitor who wants to win and knows how. That guy makes sense for your timeline, fills a position of need, and brings a badly needed infusion for your team culture. The Celtics would also throw in their late 1st, so you can still buy a lottery ticket and hope you also grab the next Donovan Mitchell or Tony Parker.

« Last Edit: May 16, 2018, 07:09:48 PM by Sophomore »

Re: Rozier + 27th for 6th. Fair deal?
« Reply #44 on: May 16, 2018, 06:56:57 PM »

Offline bknova

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Rather keep Rozier through next year to go all in for a title next year. Injuries happen, as we all know, and having Rozier around to be insurance to play a bigger role due to injury to another player, in a year you are going for it all, is huge. We can deal with either resigning him or sign and trading him after next year's playoffs.


Exactly. I feel like a lot of the Smart/Rozier talk around here is all-nothing, either we sign them long-term or let them go. But we could do lots of other things. We could re-sign Smart and trade him next summer, and then re-sign Rozier, for example.
plus whatís the point of trading for a middle of the pack draft pick ? I get having assets but we are beyond that point of asset collection, we have a good amount of draft picks remaining that we donít even know what to do with. Roll with rozier and see what happens

The point is to get a player on a four year cost controlled rookie scale.  You can only really afford three max contracts. The rest of your team is rookie scale, vet minimums, and some mid cost guys.  We have three maxes, two are setup to expire as we have to hand out maxes to Brown and Tatum.  Those guys might come back for team friendly deals.  Hence you trade guys at max value, that you are not going to pay market rate, for rookie scale guys to maintain roster and cap flexibility. 

The ideal scenario is trade Terry for the 12th pick and grab a big or wing who can fill his role at a cheaper cap number for the next 4 years. Shrewd unemotional moves like this is how you build a long term contender.