Author Topic: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread  (Read 123546 times)

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Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #180 on: July 19, 2018, 06:15:28 AM »

Offline Moranis

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The only teams I see that will be worse than the Kings are the Hawks and Maybe the Cavs

Atlanta is easy in the bottom 3. I've also got Brooklyn, Orlando, and Dallas as possible competitors for the lucky loser race.

If every team played every other team the same number of times, I would likely have Sacramento at 4 or 5. Given where they are, however, they very well could end up with a 14% shot at #1,2 or 3.

Mike

I don’t see Dallas tanking again.  The acquisitions of DeAndre Jordan and Doncic really take them up a tier.
Jordan does nothing for wins. His minutes have been declining for years since you can't really play him down the stretch.  He takes nearly 85% of his shots within 3 feet of the basket.  He rebounds well and can block shots, but he just won't yield many wins.  And aside from him and 100 year old Dirk (assuming he is back), the only bigs on their roster are Powell, Kleber, and Mejri.  Barnes and Finney-Smith are the only SF's.  They are fairly deep at the guard spots and Smith and Doncic have talent, but I think people that think Doncic is going to come in and contribute to wins this year are going to be greatly disappointed.  Dallas may not be "tanking", but they are going to be a very bad team.

MVP of Euro League won't contribute to wins? I don't follow.
Doncic has a lot of skill, but he is a poor athlete. I think the speed and athleticism is going to cause Doncic all kinds of problems until he gets used to it, which I don't think will be this season.  A few years from now, I think Doncic will be a good to great player, but I just don't see it next season. 

The Mavs have been getting worse for years.  They have a terribly constructed roster.  They don't even have a legit #2 scorer, let alone a #1.  They have perhaps the shallowest frontcourt in the league.  Smith and Doncic are nice prospects, no doubt, but they just don't have much else and those 2 guys aren't going to light the world on fire.

I expect Dallas to be a bottom 2 team in the West along with the Suns.

This strikes me as one of your contrarian takes that won't age well
Contrarian to what?  Dallas is going to suck.  Seems like a pretty sure lock for bottom 3 in the West with the Suns and the Kings.  Factoring in the lack of incentive for the Kings to tank, Dallas finishing bottom 2 seems reasonable.

Contrary to win expectancies, odds and projections. Here are the odds for the bottom feeders winning the west on my book

Suns 400-1
Kings-1000-1
Mavericks 150-1

Now I agree the Mavs are an awful bet (all of them are just burning money), but it gives you an idea of how far apart the teams are viewed. The Mavs have solid vet players in matthews, Jordan and Barnes. None are completely washed up and all have started on playoff teams. You throw in some ok guards as vets in Barea and Ferrel. A nice springy bench big in Powell, plus Smith, Doncic and a few minutes of nice offense from Dirk and you have a bad, not horrible team. Kings have some interesting young guys but hield, Fox, Giles etc are not blue chip top 3 guys and are also very raw. Carter is 41 and Randolph is 37 and probably won't make it through the year on the team. They are pretty night and day and acting like Sac will be better than Dallas is clearly contrary to what 98% of what people would say about the two teams. So like I said, I think it is a contrarian take that won't age well. If I am wrong I will give you some tps provided they still exist.
the Lakers have like the 3rd best odds and there team is no where near that level.  This is where using odds always fails.

Fox is a better prospect than Smith I believe.  Bagley is a better scorer as a rookie than anyone on the Mavs.  Hield is a nice shooter.  Bogdanovic showed nice promise.  Vets like Shumpert, Randolph, and Koufos are on the same level as the Mavs vets you are mentioning.  The Mavs are done   they will full on be tanking again a month into the season because they aren't going to be any good.
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Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #181 on: July 19, 2018, 07:25:22 AM »

Offline BitterJim

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These projections are interesting to look at:

Quote
I added a Wins Likely Range, which is a 90% confidence interval, into my live win projection tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nVYeMSUq8GI1-0Qe9E3lgT5jjT0LMFP4brLt_oOefJg/edit?usp=sharing




https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1019668408462389250

"Interesting" might be too nice of a word. Having the Raptors winning the East is defensible (although by 7 games isn't), but having the Jazz finish #2 in the West over the Rockets is...bold, to say the least
I'm bitter.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #182 on: July 19, 2018, 08:16:00 AM »

Offline greece66

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Moranis, I rly appreciate your points, but I disagree with your assessment of Mavs and Sacramento.


Mavs have better players, coach and in general team culture.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #183 on: July 19, 2018, 01:39:45 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Moranis, I rly appreciate your points, but I disagree with your assessment of Mavs and Sacramento.


Mavs have better players, coach and in general team culture.
I honestly don't think they have better players or at least not a well constructed roster.  I'm also not sure that the team that has been outwardly tanking for 2 seasons and has had pretty extensive bad press for sexual misconduct within its front office can claim to have a better team culture than anyone (though that seems to have missed the players).  And while Carlisle is an excellent coach, Joerger has had more playoff success in the last 5 seasons than Carlisle (Mavs haven't won a playoff series since winning the title in 2011), and Joerger has also won more games his 2 seasons with the Kings than Carlisle has won with the Mavs in those same 2 seasons, so I don't think that gap is quite as large as it might otherwise seem.  Frankly, I think the Mavs are due for a change as I don't think Carlisle is the right man to guide them through this rebuild. 
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Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #184 on: July 19, 2018, 04:20:58 PM »

Offline greece66

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Moranis, I rly appreciate your points, but I disagree with your assessment of Mavs and Sacramento.


Mavs have better players, coach and in general team culture.
I honestly don't think they have better players or at least not a well constructed roster.  I'm also not sure that the team that has been outwardly tanking for 2 seasons and has had pretty extensive bad press for sexual misconduct within its front office can claim to have a better team culture than anyone (though that seems to have missed the players).  And while Carlisle is an excellent coach, Joerger has had more playoff success in the last 5 seasons than Carlisle (Mavs haven't won a playoff series since winning the title in 2011), and Joerger has also won more games his 2 seasons with the Kings than Carlisle has won with the Mavs in those same 2 seasons, so I don't think that gap is quite as large as it might otherwise seem.  Frankly, I think the Mavs are due for a change as I don't think Carlisle is the right man to guide them through this rebuild.


Care to get specific?

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #185 on: July 19, 2018, 04:38:48 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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These projections are interesting to look at:

Quote
I added a Wins Likely Range, which is a 90% confidence interval, into my live win projection tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nVYeMSUq8GI1-0Qe9E3lgT5jjT0LMFP4brLt_oOefJg/edit?usp=sharing




https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1019668408462389250

"Interesting" might be too nice of a word. Having the Raptors winning the East is defensible (although by 7 games isn't), but having the Jazz finish #2 in the West over the Rockets is...bold, to say the least
that graph you’re replying to is beautiful regardless of where they have the jazz.... the Kings pick is beginning to look like untradeable gold

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #186 on: July 19, 2018, 05:26:05 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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These projections are interesting to look at:

Quote
I added a Wins Likely Range, which is a 90% confidence interval, into my live win projection tracker: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nVYeMSUq8GI1-0Qe9E3lgT5jjT0LMFP4brLt_oOefJg/edit?usp=sharing




https://twitter.com/JacobEGoldstein/status/1019668408462389250

"Interesting" might be too nice of a word. Having the Raptors winning the East is defensible (although by 7 games isn't), but having the Jazz finish #2 in the West over the Rockets is...bold, to say the least
that graph you’re replying to is beautiful regardless of where they have the jazz.... the Kings pick is beginning to look like untradeable gold

Here we have the Mavs 10.5 games better than the Kings. I don't really understand why every single ranking model or oddsmakers has them a completely different level than the kings and everyone is wrong except Moranis. You should go put your money where your mouth is and head to vegas before the season starts. Bet the Kings over and the Dallas under and make a killing.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #187 on: July 20, 2018, 09:49:18 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Yogi Ferrell backs out of Mavs deal because he felt uncomfortable.  That seems odd for such a "model" franchise
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #188 on: July 20, 2018, 09:58:39 AM »

Offline DefenseWinsChamps

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Yogi Ferrell backs out of Mavs deal because he felt uncomfortable.  That seems odd for such a "model" franchise

A. Source?
B. Are Kings going to offer him a contract? Why is this here?

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #189 on: July 20, 2018, 10:08:20 AM »

Offline greece66

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Yogi Ferrell backs out of Mavs deal because he felt uncomfortable.  That seems odd for such a "model" franchise

A. Source?
B. Are Kings going to offer him a contract? Why is this here?


 https://www.mavsmoneyball.com/2018/7/19/17591336/nba-free-agency-2018-dallas-mavericks-re-sign-yogi-ferrell-per-reports




Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #190 on: July 20, 2018, 10:09:00 AM »

Offline Moranis

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Yogi Ferrell backs out of Mavs deal because he felt uncomfortable.  That seems odd for such a "model" franchise

A. Source?
B. Are Kings going to offer him a contract? Why is this here?
There were 3 pages discussing the Mavs vs. Kings. 

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1020280515574796288

Sources: Guard Yogi Ferrell has changed course on Dallas Mavericks deal in order to reenter free agency. “We felt uncomfortable and will weigh our options,” agent Cervando Tejeda said.

2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #191 on: July 20, 2018, 04:36:13 PM »

Offline CelticsElite

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Yogi Ferrell and the Sacramento Kings have come to terms on a deal, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #192 on: July 20, 2018, 04:41:31 PM »

Offline Monkhouse

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Yogi Ferrell and the Sacramento Kings have come to terms on a deal, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

I think this bodes well for our pick.
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Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #193 on: July 20, 2018, 04:46:24 PM »

Offline Fafnir

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Yogi Ferrell and the Sacramento Kings have come to terms on a deal, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

I think this bodes well for our pick.
Seeing how the west shook out this off season, I'm more worried the Kings will win the lottery than be unexpectedly good.

Re: Sacramento Kings 2018-19 Season Watch Thread
« Reply #194 on: July 20, 2018, 04:51:07 PM »

Offline JBcat

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Yogi Ferrell and the Sacramento Kings have come to terms on a deal, league sources tell Yahoo Sports.

I think this bodes well for our pick.
Seeing how the west shook out this off season, I'm more worried the Kings will win the lottery than be unexpectedly good.

Yeah that’s my worry too.  Maybe the 76rs will totally implode with injuries ect this season dropping them deep in the lottery to double our chances.  Lol