Author Topic: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever  (Read 1321 times)

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Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #15 on: May 09, 2018, 08:02:20 PM »

Offline csfansince60s

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I'm fine with any model that tells me the Cavs have only an 11% chance of winning the title.

TP, but you don't need a model to tell you that. ;)

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #16 on: May 23, 2018, 07:33:02 AM »

Offline Vermont Green

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When Chris Paul has been healthy and playing full strength, Houston has been the best team in the league all season.  It is not surprising that a model based on past performance would have them as the best team.

It is also not surprising that the Vegas odds favor the Warriors.  Remember that Vegas odds reflect how they think people will bet, not who they think will win.

Should be a great series.  I think Houston can beat them although I would not put it at 80% likely.  Perhaps more like 55% likely.

Just bumping this thread as there is now a lot different context for this discussion with the series 2-2 and Houston having home court.  This still feels like pretty much an even call to me with Houston having a slight edge due to home court.

I have not had a chance to actually watch any of the games and I rely a lot on what I see vs box scores but what I saw during the regular season told me Houston is a really good team when they have a full speed Chris Paul.  Warriors are really good too of course but Paul seems to be neutralizing Curry enough and that leaves Harden to do his thing and Durant to do his thing.

I have always thought Green and Thompson were overrated; they are good players, just not great.  Houston does not have that much after Harden and Paul though.  I hope Houston beats them.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #17 on: May 23, 2018, 08:06:31 AM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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They are dubious at even politics, at times and misinterpret data due to their skews a lot.   I would not trust them on sports.   That being said I like to read the site sometimes.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #18 on: May 23, 2018, 09:33:44 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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This prediction business is fickle. Nate Silver went from a star to a scrub in one night (presidential election). I think he's somewhere in between- a good data analyst that will often get things wrong, like other people.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #19 on: May 23, 2018, 09:41:33 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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This prediction business is fickle. Nate Silver went from a star to a scrub in one night (presidential election). I think he's somewhere in between- a good data analyst that will often get things wrong, like other people.
For people who literally do not understand probability because they only understand the binary (wrong/right) this is true.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #20 on: May 23, 2018, 09:50:39 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Hopefully, the model is constantly being tweaked to try to gain accuracy. Also, it's not an all or nothing; it is a helpful tool to ask "why" and look for reasons to agree or disagree with the model. Making a wrong prediction doesn't necessarily invalidate the entire model.

If a statistical model told you that if you flipped a coin 10 times you should get 5 heads and 5 tails, but then you actually flipped the coin and got 7 heads and 3 tails...would you throw out the model?
100%.

The idea that a model needs to "understand" something is like asking a hammer to understand something. It is just a sophisticated and useful tool. You as a person looking at the model need to use it appropriately.

Given that its a relatively straightforward ELO system with adjustment for opponent, rest, etc just means its only a little different than point differental, SRS, etc.

The Rockets are really good and while I do think the Warriors are the better team overall they are now looking like they might pull off the upset.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #21 on: May 23, 2018, 10:18:49 AM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Hopefully, the model is constantly being tweaked to try to gain accuracy. Also, it's not an all or nothing; it is a helpful tool to ask "why" and look for reasons to agree or disagree with the model. Making a wrong prediction doesn't necessarily invalidate the entire model.

If a statistical model told you that if you flipped a coin 10 times you should get 5 heads and 5 tails, but then you actually flipped the coin and got 7 heads and 3 tails...would you throw out the model?
100%.

The idea that a model needs to "understand" something is like asking a hammer to understand something. It is just a sophisticated and useful tool. You as a person looking at the model need to use it appropriately.

Given that its a relatively straightforward ELO system with adjustment for opponent, rest, etc just means its only a little different than point differental, SRS, etc.

The Rockets are really good and while I do think the Warriors are the better team overall they are now looking like they might pull off the upset.

Right. As an interpreter of the stats, you get to take any prediction model in context.

So, the "general consensus" is GSW is the best team, but 538 had Houston favored, 80-20. So, if that runs counter to the eye test, what is this predictive model seeing that we aren't, and/or what are we seeing that the predictive model isn't.

Likely, the predictive model is seeing how good Houston's defense secretly is (despite the offense getting the hype), how surprising good Capella is (his impact I think outpaces his budding reputation), and assigns some historically determined value to home-court advantage.

Now, it is also missing the fact that the Warriors may have "coasted," or, at the very least, had some very very good currently healthy players miss a lot of time due to rest and injuries.

So you can take this as learning something we might have missed about Houston, but also us knowing something vital that the model might not know, and make our own predictions.


But as I've mentioned before, just because a model says with 1 dice role, you have a 5/6 chance of not rolling a 1, then you go and roll a 1, does not mean the prediction model was "wrong" or "Broken."

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #22 on: May 23, 2018, 10:27:23 AM »

Offline smokeablount

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Hopefully, the model is constantly being tweaked to try to gain accuracy. Also, it's not an all or nothing; it is a helpful tool to ask "why" and look for reasons to agree or disagree with the model. Making a wrong prediction doesn't necessarily invalidate the entire model.

If a statistical model told you that if you flipped a coin 10 times you should get 5 heads and 5 tails, but then you actually flipped the coin and got 7 heads and 3 tails...would you throw out the model?
100%.

The idea that a model needs to "understand" something is like asking a hammer to understand something. It is just a sophisticated and useful tool. You as a person looking at the model need to use it appropriately.

Given that its a relatively straightforward ELO system with adjustment for opponent, rest, etc just means its only a little different than point differental, SRS, etc.

The Rockets are really good and while I do think the Warriors are the better team overall they are now looking like they might pull off the upset.

Right. As an interpreter of the stats, you get to take any prediction model in context.

So, the "general consensus" is GSW is the best team, but 538 had Houston favored, 80-20. So, if that runs counter to the eye test, what is this predictive model seeing that we aren't, and/or what are we seeing that the predictive model isn't.

Likely, the predictive model is seeing how good Houston's defense secretly is (despite the offense getting the hype), how surprising good Capella is (his impact I think outpaces his budding reputation), and assigns some historically determined value to home-court advantage.

Now, it is also missing the fact that the Warriors may have "coasted," or, at the very least, had some very very good currently healthy players miss a lot of time due to rest and injuries.

So you can take this as learning something we might have missed about Houston, but also us knowing something vital that the model might not know, and make our own predictions.


But as I've mentioned before, just because a model says with 1 dice role, you have a 5/6 chance of not rolling a 1, then you go and roll a 1, does not mean the prediction model was "wrong" or "Broken."

Game 5 in Houston could make 538 look very smart.  I think Golden State takes it, but I certainly wouldn't bet on it (I did bet Houston +9 last night, shoulda bet the ML, oops).
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #23 on: May 23, 2018, 11:06:02 AM »

Offline CelticsElite

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At the beginning of the playoffs it had us with  5% or 1% chance of making the finals

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #24 on: May 23, 2018, 11:33:26 AM »

Offline green_bballers13

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I don't think we should disregard 538. I think they should be considered like any other "valued added" (ie not Twitter) source of information, regardless of their conclusion. Nate Silver and his staff are respected, though people (myself included) gave them more credit than they were due. I think this is b/c they nailed the Obama election.

I think the Warriors will beat the Rockets. I'm not sure there's a model in the world useful in predicting whether a player hits or misses a clutch shot at the end of game 7.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #25 on: May 24, 2018, 01:00:20 AM »

Offline vjcsmoke

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Well if the Rockets win Game 5 at home... then what?  The Warriors will be in a precarious situation where they have to win 2 in a row, including a road win.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #26 on: May 24, 2018, 01:19:23 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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I stopped reading 538 when they had Hilary winning convincingly only to have Trump win.
« Last Edit: May 24, 2018, 10:21:49 AM by nickagneta »

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #27 on: May 24, 2018, 01:28:29 AM »

Offline Bucketgetter

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What are the best models that predicts sports outcomes? Is 538 one of them?
CB Mock Deadline - Minnesota Timberwolves
Kemba Walker / Tyus Jones / Aaron Brooks
Jimmy Butler / Jamal Crawford / Treveon Graham
Rodney Hood / Nic Batum / Marcus Georges Hunt
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KAT / Derrick Favors / Cole Aldrich
Picks - 2018 CHA 1st (Lotto protected), none out

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #28 on: May 24, 2018, 01:29:31 AM »

Offline Beat LA

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What's 538?

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #29 on: May 24, 2018, 01:33:54 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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If a statistical model told you that if you flipped a coin 10 times you should get 5 heads and 5 tails, but then you actually flipped the coin and got 7 heads and 3 tails...would you throw out the model?

I'd want to know why I got an unexpected result.  Random probability or a specific reason, or set of reasons?

Maybe the coin you had was weighted.  Maybe it was being manipulated by the thrower.  Who knows?