Author Topic: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever  (Read 3993 times)

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Online Moranis

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

They currently have the Rockets at 80% and the Warriors at 20% to make the Finals.  I get this is based on stats, but that just seems crazy and really highlights the flaws in stat based models. 
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Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #1 on: May 09, 2018, 10:08:55 AM »

Offline ederson

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You don't evaluate models like that. 

Obviously the numbers are crazy and nowhere near the truth but you don't disregard a prediction/estimation model because it got one or two very wrong.

I don't follow this site so maybe this has been a reccuring issue but the other predictions look pretty good.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #2 on: May 09, 2018, 10:14:08 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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Look at the ELO history of the Warriors, it tanked in the later half of this season once the Rockets secured home court and Curry was injured. They were missing a MVP caliber player and mailing it in as they had the two seed wrapped up.

The Rockets ELO actually did the same thing, but a lesser decline once they clinched HCA through out the playoffs.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #3 on: May 09, 2018, 10:16:16 AM »

Offline Ed Hollison

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I'm fine with any model that tells me the Cavs have only an 11% chance of winning the title.
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Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #4 on: May 09, 2018, 10:17:55 AM »

Online Moranis

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You don't evaluate models like that. 

Obviously the numbers are crazy and nowhere near the truth but you don't disregard a prediction/estimation model because it got one or two very wrong.

I don't follow this site so maybe this has been a reccuring issue but the other predictions look pretty good.
Before the playoffs, they had the Rockets at 65% of making the Finals, the Raptors were 2nd at 44%, followed by the Sixers at 23%, Cavs at 20%, Jazz at 10%, Warriors at 7%, and I suppose there is not point in going forward.  So in sum, the team responsible for the most dominant 3 consecutive regular seasons ever (including 2 titles over those seasons), 538 predicted would make it to where they are at just 31%, with a 7% chance to go to the next round, and only a 4% at winning the title.  heck they only had them at 62% to win their 1st round series against the Spurs (which is odd because the Spurs they had at 42%).  They only gave the Warriors a 60% chance to beat the Pelicans. 

I'm not sure they got the other predictions right. 
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Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #5 on: May 09, 2018, 10:44:08 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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I never paid any attention to it in the first place. I couldn't care less what the statistical model created by some moron says.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #6 on: May 09, 2018, 10:55:01 AM »

Offline footey

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How did they do head to head this season?


Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #7 on: May 09, 2018, 11:16:40 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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How did they do head to head this season?
Houston won 2 games lost one game. All three games were competitive.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #8 on: May 09, 2018, 11:18:36 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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The idea that an ELO rating is garbage because it rates a team with 7 more wins, better SRS, Net Rating than another team means you're just mad that GSW mailed in much of their season and most of all that Curry got hurt.

The GSW are -160 favorites to win the series FWIW.
« Last Edit: May 09, 2018, 11:26:12 AM by Fafnir »

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #9 on: May 09, 2018, 11:50:23 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nba-predictions/

They currently have the Rockets at 80% and the Warriors at 20% to make the Finals.  I get this is based on stats, but that just seems crazy and really highlights the flaws in stat based models.

The flaw being that stats are based on actual performance and GS mailed it in during the regular season? I mean untill we figure out how to factor in coasting stat based models are always going to have  problems.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #10 on: May 09, 2018, 11:59:20 AM »

Offline KGs Knee

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The idea that an ELO rating is garbage because it rates a team with 7 more wins, better SRS, Net Rating than another team means you're just mad that GSW mailed in much of their season and most of all that Curry got hurt.

The GSW are -160 favorites to win the series FWIW.

The idea is that the model is garbage because it is incapable of understanding why something happened, not that it happened.


Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #11 on: May 09, 2018, 12:35:12 PM »

Offline smokeablount

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You don't evaluate models like that. 

Obviously the numbers are crazy and nowhere near the truth but you don't disregard a prediction/estimation model because it got one or two very wrong.

I don't follow this site so maybe this has been a reccuring issue but the other predictions look pretty good.
Before the playoffs, they had the Rockets at 65% of making the Finals, the Raptors were 2nd at 44%, followed by the Sixers at 23%, Cavs at 20%, Jazz at 10%, Warriors at 7%, and I suppose there is not point in going forward.  So in sum, the team responsible for the most dominant 3 consecutive regular seasons ever (including 2 titles over those seasons), 538 predicted would make it to where they are at just 31%, with a 7% chance to go to the next round, and only a 4% at winning the title.  heck they only had them at 62% to win their 1st round series against the Spurs (which is odd because the Spurs they had at 42%).  They only gave the Warriors a 60% chance to beat the Pelicans. 

I'm not sure they got the other predictions right.

I frequently quibble with Moranis but I’m inclined to agree here. 7% for GS to make the finals is silly.

The model might be ok in most cases but that’s a silly projection. Even if Houston sweeps, it will still seem low to me, and I don’t expect Houston to sweep or even win. Looking forward to the WCF (and assuming we make it, the ECF obviously).
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Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #12 on: May 09, 2018, 12:48:33 PM »

Online Moranis

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The idea that an ELO rating is garbage because it rates a team with 7 more wins, better SRS, Net Rating than another team means you're just mad that GSW mailed in much of their season and most of all that Curry got hurt.

The GSW are -160 favorites to win the series FWIW.

The idea is that the model is garbage because it is incapable of understanding why something happened, not that it happened.
Yeah, that is what I'm getting at.  I'm not sure the fix, but any time a model is based on something which is clearly flawed, its predictive factors disappear.  If they were just using the model to say who had a better season, then it would be fine, but they use the model to predict future events, and in that case what happens in a season should factor in, but can't be the only thing.  The Warriors coasted, took time off, had players out with injury, and frankly just didn't care.  This is something that happens a lot with the better teams, especially as the seasons of success start getting larger.  You can't predict the playoffs based solely on the regular season for that reason.  Now maybe if they took prior year's performances, especially in the playoffs, and then somehow combined that with the current season, the predictive nature of the model would make more sense (and would thus disregard the Warriors poorer statistical season).
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Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #13 on: May 09, 2018, 12:58:43 PM »

Offline Vermont Green

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When Chris Paul has been healthy and playing full strength, Houston has been the best team in the league all season.  It is not surprising that a model based on past performance would have them as the best team.

It is also not surprising that the Vegas odds favor the Warriors.  Remember that Vegas odds reflect how they think people will bet, not who they think will win.

Should be a great series.  I think Houston can beat them although I would not put it at 80% likely.  Perhaps more like 55% likely.

Re: If the Warriors beat the Rockets can we just disregard 538 forever
« Reply #14 on: May 09, 2018, 07:47:56 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Hopefully, the model is constantly being tweaked to try to gain accuracy. Also, it's not an all or nothing; it is a helpful tool to ask "why" and look for reasons to agree or disagree with the model. Making a wrong prediction doesn't necessarily invalidate the entire model.

If a statistical model told you that if you flipped a coin 10 times you should get 5 heads and 5 tails, but then you actually flipped the coin and got 7 heads and 3 tails...would you throw out the model?