Author Topic: How much is Rozier or dare I say Kyrie worth?  (Read 1329 times)

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Re: How much is Rozier or dare I say Kyrie worth?
« Reply #45 on: May 07, 2018, 05:03:32 PM »

Offline sdceltsfan

  • Jayson Tatum
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I don't think rozier can get a high lotto pick unless he's part of a larger trade. I think he's worth about 15th pick by himself.

too low...the guy was already a 16th pick himself on his own draft class and in a redraft now of 2015, Terry is going at least top 6 the way he is playing out of his mind.
rozier is an expiring contract. You realize that right

Rozier's contract status isn't really a factor, at least not in a significant manner. He has one more year on his rookie deal and then will be a RFA, giving any team that trades for him right of first refusal. This is far different from trading for a veteran who would be a UFA.

The issue is, rarely do teams give up lottery picks for players who probably aren't even top 10 at their position.

I dunno. Look at the Clips, picking 11 and 12. Suppose they decide they want a PG. Who can they get at 11, and what are the odds that player is better than Rozier? I think everything depends on who you think TR is. Is he playoff Terry, getting a very efficient 20 ppg (TS% above 60), 6-7 assists on very low turnovers, 5 rpg, and solid defense, all against motivated playoff competition? Or is he the guy who was much less efficient before the playoffs, making more than his share of bad basketball plays.

If you believe playoff Terry is for real, that could be your guy even for a lotto pick.  The other parts of this, that are harder to assess, involve where the team is in its development and salary structure. To get a high pick you need a team that wants to start getting better fairly soon and doesn't mind spending to keep him a year from now. They'd be spending decent money on a player who is good but doesn't project as a true franchise player. That involves a lot of variables. I kind of wish Orlando was few picks worse in the draft - say, 8th - because for them it might make sense.

This is basically where I think Danny comes in at the right moment and capitalizes on Roziers rapidly inflating value. It's not like he had one or two good games. He has completely replaced 95% of what Kyrie was doing for the offensive, and the other 5% is playing better defense at a trade off for Kyries elevated passing game. And this is against playoff competition. Teams want to see a young guy do this kind of damage against the elite teams, more than regular season games against inferior competition.

Our money is going to be tied up in Kyrie as the starter, and I imagine they will look to extend his contract. Rozier is playing far beyond a 6th man role, and it doesn't make sense to pay this guy starter level money a year from now, when we also have Brown and Tatum to have to save money for down the road.

I do agree that if LAC comes knocking offering #12, that DA should absolutely consider the deal, from the cost-controlled contract perspective. If he also thinks he can move up from #12, in to the 5-8 range to get a guy like Bamba or Wendell Carter.....or who knows, maybe one of them slides....this would be the kind of draft night trade to expect.

If it's for Kawhi.....I think a trade like Rozier, Smart sign and trade, LAL/SAC pick, Memphis pick, Clippers 1st would be a really tough deal for the Spurs to walk away from. That's 5 solid rebuilding chips, if they think the Kawhi situation is totally FUBAR. I would consider swapping Jaylen in to this trade by taking a couple of the draft picks off the table (LAL and one of the MEM/LAC).....

so Rozier, Smart, Jaylen, Memphis 1st for Kawhi

Kyrie/Larkin
Kawhi/Nader
Hayward/Morris/Semi/Yabu
Tatum/Theis/Semi/Yabu
Horford 

Obviously we would need to figure out Baynes/Monroe or replacing them with a couple bigs, and then drafting another rotational PG with our 2018 1st.

I'm sure some of you think that I am way overvaluing Rozier, and way undervaluing Kawhi, but between his injury/contract situation, I believe he can be had at 80 cents on the dollar for probably the only time in his career. If that means offering up guys we will lose to cap attrition (Rozier/Smart) and sacrificing Jaylen, it should be considered. I believe that is the level of conversation Roziers play has done for the Celtics off-season though.

Re: How much is Rozier or dare I say Kyrie worth?
« Reply #46 on: May 07, 2018, 05:28:20 PM »

Offline Green-18

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If it was guarantee that next season Rozier would continue to put up the same stats he has these playoffs, you could probably get a top 3 pick for him.

Unfortunately we donít really know how good Rozier will be on a different team with full time starting duties.

Yea, I also think teams are starting to get wary of assuming continued recent performance in a new setting with guys who flourish under Stevens. I think the market for Rozier is going to a be a bit cooler than some seem to expect - if Phoenix gets involved there they'd probably be dangling the #16 pick in the draft and another asset, be it a young forward like Bender or a future first (the variation on that unprotected pick they have from Miami in the early 2020's is intriguing). Can't see them offering their own pick for Rozier and another asset (unless the Lakers pick jumps up to like 3 and Ainge is in love with the guy at the top of the board).

With Rozier I'm very scared that there's going to be a Dennis Schroder-like element on his next contract, where he looks great in a defined role on his rookie deal, but you hand him $80 million to be the lead guard elsewhere and all the sudden you're looking at him and going "and the contract doesn't expire until when?"

Don't get me wrong, I like him and think he's been great for Boston - saved the season, really - but I don't think lottery teams are going to be tripping over themselves offering up their picks for the right to extend Terry.

TP! Couldn't have said it better myself.  Terry's value to the Celtics this season is higher than it would be for most other teams.  It's not a simple plug and play.  As I mentioned earlier, the value of rookie contracts is at an all-time high throughout the league.

Terry's value to the rest of the league is probably a mid-late lottery pick for 2018 + a veteran rotation player or raw prospect.  Ainge might be able to squeeze multiple first round picks if they are for 2019 and beyond.  I think some people are underestimating how protective GM's will be over their picks for the upcoming draft.

The health of Kyrie definitely makes things even more difficult for Ainge.  Terry is the ultimate insurance policy for next season.  Personally I would be okay with going all in with the current roster even if it means that we could lose Terry as an RFA in 2019.  Ainge has enough assets to make the risk worth it.