Author Topic: Danny's drafting ability reputation  (Read 4181 times)

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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #75 on: April 23, 2018, 09:18:24 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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The general feeling was we would take a shooter, but Jaylen made a lot of sense as well. Even if more drafts had him at 6-8 then 3-5, 3 was still very much in play. Si, nate duncan, Kevin o connor are 3 of the best and they all had him at 3.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #76 on: April 23, 2018, 09:50:25 PM »

Online Moranis

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The general feeling was we would take a shooter, but Jaylen made a lot of sense as well. Even if more drafts had him at 6-8 then 3-5, 3 was still very much in play. Si, nate duncan, Kevin o connor are 3 of the best and they all had him at 3.
guys connected to Boston having him 3rd makes sense if they had heard that the Celtics loved him. Mocks are often based on inside info and not what that writer would do himself

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #77 on: April 24, 2018, 12:15:30 AM »

Online pokeKingCurtis

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On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.


Fun fact about the Nuggets. They really did well in the 2014 draft - Jokic, Harris, Nurkic - drafting 16th, 19th, and 41st. But what's odd is that I think most people would rank the players opposite their draft position. They got the Joker at 41 - after the whole league passed, and after Denver passed to pick Nurkic and Harris. They got a little lucky there.

My gut tells me the Nuggets are probably some of the best drafters. A bunch of hits.

Chicago used to be too, until recent years - Jimmy Butler, Taj Gibson - all home grown. Seems to have picked it up again, though, now.

Makes me wonder who the top drafters are -- probably OKC...Denver...

Wonder where Ainge ranks there...

15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder

This is another interesting one to take a look at. Is going 50% that bad?

Let's look at the top 6 (since Noel was 6) of the last few drafts. Keep in mind that recent drafts often tend to look better, because players haven't fallen off the cliff or plateaued yet (think of how Tristan Thompson looked even 2 years ago, for example; same with the futures of Parker, MKG, etc).

2017 - Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson, Fox, Isaac. Too early to tell.
2016 - Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Bender, Dunn, Hield. Early again, but Hield and Dunn are a bit underwhelming, Bender hasn't shown much; the others seem good.
2015 - KAT, d'angelo russel, Okafor, Porzingis, Hezonja, cauley stein
2014 - Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, A Gordon, Exum, Smart.
2013 - Bennet, Oladipo, porter, c zeller, Len, Noel
2012 - A Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Lillard
2011 - Irving, Derrick WIlliams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Valenciunas, Veseley
2010 - Wall, Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson, Cousins, Udoh
2009 - Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Evans, Rubio, Flynn
2008 - Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook, Love, Gallinari

So 50% or so is about right. It's more about number of chances to hit that being exceptionally good at hitting.

I will have to admit to being biased against the 6ers in this case  :P

But now that you bring that up, would Ainge's past top picks (Tatum, Brown) bump his ranking up that much more?

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #78 on: April 24, 2018, 12:33:44 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
« Last Edit: April 24, 2018, 12:51:19 AM by keevsnick »

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #79 on: April 24, 2018, 01:48:02 AM »

Offline nickagneta

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Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #80 on: April 24, 2018, 03:35:17 AM »

Offline keevsnick

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Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.

I'm not really repsonding to you in particular, sorry if it came across that way. I was repsonding to posters who said stuff like Jaylen was the consesus number eight guy, or nobody but Ainge had Jaylen at three.

As a matter of fact i think we pretty much agree, Jaylen was a great who went in the range he should have. Th only part of your statement I have a problem with is the inferecne he was mocked at 3 because people knew Ainge was interested in him. People had him at three well before that, and even guys like Kevin o Connor who may have had him there becasue of those rumors were very high  on him and thought he deserved that draft slot. He wasnt the consesus 6th-8th bets player in the draft. Thats my point.

Anyway to answer the actual question of this thread, dany ainge probably deserves like a B, or B+ with upwward potntial if brown/tatum recah their cielings. 


Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #81 on: April 24, 2018, 03:36:44 AM »

Offline wiley

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Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.

Yes, I too was not trying to call Ainge a genius for the Brown pick. 

But out of 6 similarly rated guys he picked the right one by a landslide (at this moment...let's see how others progress...).  And, he was seen by the majority as at the back end of those 6, not the front end...

It was not a coup, not a move on the level of buying a pick from Phoenix and taking Rondo, but Ainge took plenty of crap for the Brown pick.  I had wanted Dunn, but Brown's awesome shooting performance in his workout for the C's mad me reconsider and so I trusted the pick even though it wasn't my favorite. Still, most of the way through Brown's rookie year I fretted when he made mistakes, remembering blogging critics and others who said he didn't have a great feel for the game. 

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #82 on: April 24, 2018, 08:21:29 AM »

Online Moranis

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Okay, lets take this point by point.

Its true that a lot of guys put Jaylen Brown at number three after he had work outs with the Celtics n the weeks before the draft and rumors started circulating that they were interested in him. But there were cterianly mock drafts that had him going to the Celtics even before these rumors spread. SI for instance had Brown as the 3rd pick a full month before the NBA draft and before they brought him in for workouts. So the idea that his mock draft ratings were based entirely on where people thought he would go are false. This is further disputed by the fact that there were mock drafts that had him going right after us to the Suns. To Nickagneta, I refer you to mock draft from both Fox Sports One and Forbes who at one point or another in the month before the draft had him going to the Suns. If you think about it this makes sense, the Suns the very next year took Josh Jackson. An athletic swingman who was strong defensively but cant shoot (sound familiar?).

Now, mock drafts are often bases on projections, but this idea cuts both ways. You can say that mocks had Brown at 3rd because of the Celtics rumor, but a lot of mocks didn't have him at third because he didn't fit our perceived needs at the time. He wasn't a shooter, and he wasn't the guy the Bulls were rumored to be interested in. A lot of that Kris Dunn hype was because we were gonna flip him for Jimmy Butler. In other words, maybe Brown was a worthy pick at 3 but wasn't mocked there because of perceived need. The very fact that so many of these mock drafts were trying to project 3-8 based on teem needs tells you how closely the 3-8 prospects in the draft were ranked.

Now I'm willing to concede that in general more mocks had him going 7 or 8 than 3-6. A 2:1 ratio in that regard sounds about right. But thats far from a consensus. And as I've already pointed out alot of msart people like Kevin o connor and Nate Duncan has him ranked pretty high. Perhaps the best argument that Jaylen was in play much higher than 7th or 8th is the fact that Dany took him at 3rd. If Ainge could have moved back to 7th and gotten Jaylen, who he obviosuly thought was the best pick, don't you think he would have? Even if only for an extra 2nd round pick or late first? Obvisuouly he would have, he did it with Tatum. the fact that he didn't is a pretty good indicator he thought Brown would be gone by then. Probably to Pheonix at 4.

Now let me give you guys a history lesson. Before that college season Jaylen Brown was rated almost universally as a top 3 pick. He was the 2nd rated recruit in his class our of high school. A bad season at Cal culminating in a Kevin Pelton piece that has Brown projecting terribly in statistical models moving forward tanked his position in mock drafts. But then as people did more in depth analysis he started recovering a bit. People pointed at that Cal was a terrible fit, he was asked to basically play PG which he wasn't equipped to do on a team with a bad coach and no spacing leading to terrible efficiency. With NBA spacing he would probably fit better. In addition although he shot bad at Cal from 3, he was a pretty decent shooter from distance in high school. Then he started going to workouts, and not surprisingly he is the exact type of player who looks awesome in an empty gym and his stock recovered yet further. Brown became a test case for analytics vs traditional scouting and upside projection. Hence the fact that he was all over the place in mocks.

Anyway, my point in all this is Brown wasn't a reach. If you went ahead and asked all these guys writing these mocks who had him 7 or 8 whether they'd be surprised if he went 3, they would say no. And thats my point. That was the prevailing opinion at the time, 3-8 was fluid and although Brown has his warts so did everyone else in that range. We shouldn't be sitting here giving Ainge credit for seeing something nobody else did when numerous people had that as the pick. Hell, I had him number 2 on my board and I am far from a draft expert! That being said Ainge sill made a hell of a pick, having #3 in a supposed 2 player draft and coming anyway with arguably the 2nd best guy is impressive.
Who said Brown was a reach at 3? People are saying "most" draft sites and scouts had him in the 6-8 area. I said I didn't see him in the 3rd spot until shortly before the draft, most likely because word leaked that Ainge liked him.Saying Kevin O'Connor, former CBer and guy with Celtic inside info says he would go at 3, only helps my point.

I never said Ainge was some sort of drafting savante because he chose Brown. Check the posts. Heck, check my entire posting history. All I am saying is I remember Brown being listed in the 6-8 area through most of the lead up to the draft and then being listed 3rd to the Cs just before the draft. I am guessing that is because word got out Ainge liked Brown. Certainly having a tremendous shooting workout with the Celtics helped Brown.

Others posting proof that Brown was indeed looked at as 6-8 before the draft by tons of sites and only by 1 or 2 beforehand, one being Kevin O'Connor, a Celticblog local with connections, kinda proves my point.

Ainge made a good call on Brown. Brown was listed as one of 4-5 to chose after Simmons and Ingram. Bender, Chriss, Heild, Dunn or Murray might have been okay picks or bad picks. But Ainge chose wisely. Its not like he pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Its not some miraculous pick. But, in retrospect, it could be the best pick in that draft though again, not some out of left field miraculous pick like  Giannis at 16 or Kawhi at 15 or Kobe at 13.

I'm not really repsonding to you in particular, sorry if it came across that way. I was repsonding to posters who said stuff like Jaylen was the consesus number eight guy, or nobody but Ainge had Jaylen at three.

As a matter of fact i think we pretty much agree, Jaylen was a great who went in the range he should have. Th only part of your statement I have a problem with is the inferecne he was mocked at 3 because people knew Ainge was interested in him. People had him at three well before that, and even guys like Kevin o Connor who may have had him there becasue of those rumors were very high  on him and thought he deserved that draft slot. He wasnt the consesus 6th-8th bets player in the draft. Thats my point.

Anyway to answer the actual question of this thread, dany ainge probably deserves like a B, or B+ with upwward potntial if brown/tatum recah their cielings.
except no one in this thread said any of the things you were allegedly responding to. 

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #83 on: April 24, 2018, 01:08:52 PM »

Online Fan from VT

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Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..


Thanks. And just to clarify, i was using 1 all-nba, 1st, 2nd or 3rd team, not all star.

OK, I wanted to make sure I wasn't being too nice to Ainge by only counting "All-NBA" missed as "missed superstars," so I expanded it to All-Stars as well.

In addition to the above mentioned All-NBA players that Ainge could have drafted but did not, he also "missed" these All-Stars:

David West^
Jameer Nelson^
Josh Howard
Kyle Korver^
Mo William
Paul Millsap^

Not many to add, really, so the original premise holds up.
The 2003 draft had a lost of misses by a lot of people. David West, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, and Mo Williams had almost every team pass on them at least once. We came a way with Banks and Perkins.

Jameer could have been drafted by Ainge, but only by skipping Al Jefferson, since Jameer was taken before Tony Allen and Delonte.

Millsap was taken after Rondo, so it would have meant missing out on Rondo or acquiring another pick.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #84 on: April 24, 2018, 01:11:16 PM »

Online Fan from VT

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Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..


Thanks. And just to clarify, i was using 1 all-nba, 1st, 2nd or 3rd team, not all star.

OK, I wanted to make sure I wasn't being too nice to Ainge by only counting "All-NBA" missed as "missed superstars," so I expanded it to All-Stars as well.

In addition to the above mentioned All-NBA players that Ainge could have drafted but did not, he also "missed" these All-Stars:

David West^
Jameer Nelson^
Josh Howard
Kyle Korver^
Mo William
Paul Millsap^

Not many to add, really, so the original premise holds up.
The 2003 draft had a lost of misses by a lot of people. David West, Josh Howard, Kyle Korver, and Mo Williams had almost every team pass on them at least once. We came a way with Banks and Perkins.

Jameer could have been drafted by Ainge, but only by skipping Al Jefferson, since Jameer was taken before Tony Allen and Delonte.

Millsap was taken after Rondo, so it would have meant missing out on Rondo or acquiring another pick.

So basically, I think the premise stands:
It is not that remarkable to have never drafted a superstar in 15 years, when you take into account
1. Draft position
2. Draft position hit rate
3. What else "draft capital" was used for (trading for KG, Kyrie, and Ray, who were/are superstars).
4. He did draft 2 guys who made all-NBA lists (Rondo, Al Jeff) and 1 all-star (rondo).

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #85 on: May 03, 2018, 11:49:29 PM »

Online pokeKingCurtis

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Was checking out the 6ers' SBNation webpage, based on recommendation from a fellow CB'er. One was lamenting about how the 6ers' loss today was a result of missing too many draft picks (https://www.libertyballers.com/2018/5/3/17315390/sixers-vs-celtics-game-2-game-thread-philadelphia-boston-embiid-simmons-tatum-horford).

Obviously we're in different stages of different styles of rebuild, and this is just two games, but should be interesting to see what happens in years to come.