Author Topic: Danny's drafting ability reputation  (Read 3808 times)

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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #60 on: April 23, 2018, 04:11:46 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #61 on: April 23, 2018, 04:30:10 PM »

Online Moranis

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
Yep.  I remember starting a thread on here, that posed the question if Boston had made the trade with the Sixers and then used those assets to trade with Sacramento for #8, could Boston have ended up with Brown at that spot.  A lot of people thought it might have been possible, of course most wouldn't have wanted to take that chance (both that Brown fell and that Sacto would have made the trade). 

EDIT: here is that thread http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=85733.0

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #62 on: April 23, 2018, 05:01:05 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #63 on: April 23, 2018, 06:04:59 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Thank you for writing this out. Great job of putting the whole one all-star thing in perspective..


Thanks. And just to clarify, i was using 1 all-nba, 1st, 2nd or 3rd team, not all star.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #64 on: April 23, 2018, 06:17:40 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #65 on: April 23, 2018, 06:49:56 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #66 on: April 23, 2018, 06:58:09 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #67 on: April 23, 2018, 07:07:40 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #68 on: April 23, 2018, 07:47:08 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

I'd like to add one more to this part of your list, if that's okay, and, well, that is taking Lester Hudson instead of Wesley Matthews at 58 in 2009. That was the easiest pick in Ainge's entire tenure, imo, as there was literally no one else to even consider save for Matthews at that point, imo. Sigh. He would have been great, here, and hey, who knows, perhaps his close friendship with Jimmy Butler would have been enough to persuade Danny and company into taking his former Marquette teammate insofar as vouching for the latter is concerned.

Granted, I understand that the last part sounds far fetched, and it probably is, lol, but I remember seeing a post on the Warriors' Blog, iirc, where someone said that Matthews had begged Portland to draft Butler, so who knows? Maybe that makes the difference, but we'll never know, now. Sigh.

Imagine if we gotten those two guys, though, and how the timeline for that team would have been completely altered. Sure, that other dude, Pierce, and KG were getting older, but Matthews and Butler would have learned from the best in business, and when it came time to phase out Pierce, and even if that other guy still takes his talents to South Beach, we simply could have inserted Matthews and Butler into the lineup and we keep on going. Sigh.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #69 on: April 23, 2018, 08:32:32 PM »

Offline bdm860

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.

Here's Bill Simmons tweet on draft night:

https://twitter.com/BillSimmons/status/746153441093816320
Quote
The Celtics just took the 7th pick in the draft at no. 3 and used no. 16 on a French guy sitting in the stands. I'm gonna make a drink.

Of course that's the same man who had this reaction to drafting James Young:



So maybe Simmons isn't the best evaluator of talent.

When it comes to Brown's projected draft position though, NBA.com actually posted a mock draft summary, and it appears to have been updated the night before the draft with the latest mocks:

NBA.com: Brown at 8, Bender at 3
Draft Express: Brown at 8, Dunn at 3
ESPN.com: Brown at 6, Dunn at 3
SI.com: Brown at 8, Bender at 3
Sporting News: Brown at 7, Chriss at 3
CBS Sports (6/14): Brown at 8, Murray at 3
NBADraft.net: Brown at 4, Dunn at 3
USA Today: Brown at 3
NetScouts: Brown at 8, Bender at 3
Bleacher Report: Brown at 7, Hield at 3
Basketball Insiders: Brown at 6, Murray at 3
CBS Sports (6/21): Brown at 8, Murray at 3

1 of 12 had Brown going #3 (USA Today nailed the C's pick, not much else).
1 of 12 had Brown going #4
2 of 12 had Brown going #6
2 of 12 had Brown going #7
6 of 12 had Brown going #8

So a couple of people had Brown going high, but the majority seemed to have him going at the back end of that #3-#8 tier.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 09:18:15 PM by bdm860 »

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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #70 on: April 23, 2018, 08:39:28 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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I could have sworn Chad Ford had Brown going later then on his last or next to last mock had him going third ad mentioned he heard Ainge loved Brown.

Not gonna look it up but I seem to remember more sites like celticsclay mentioned having him lower.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #71 on: April 23, 2018, 08:39:42 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.

There were some evaluators who liked Jaylen 3d, but a lot had him pegged lower and there was not a public consensus. And we know there were a lot of posters around here who thought Ainge blew it by taking another defensive bulldog who couldn't shoot. This choice wasn't a sure thing - it was a good choice amid a lot of noise.

On the morning of the 2016 draft:

DraftExpress had Brown 8th: https://web.archive.org/web/20160623054049/http://www.draftexpress.com:80/

NBA DraftNet had him 9th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160629211607/http://www.nbadraft.net:80/

Tankathon had him 7th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160620154309/http://www.tankathon.com:80/mock_draft

Hoopsrumors had him 7th: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/hoops-rumors-2016-nba-mock-draft.html

Can't get the last ESPN big board because I don't subscribe, but Chad Ford had Boston taking Chris Dunn at 3, which of course knocked the chip off Isaiah's shoulder: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/isaiah-thomas-calls-out-chad-ford-nba-draft/. SI also wanted the Cs to take Dunn.

Others got it right.

Maybe Danny was reading Forbes! They had Jaylen 3d (although they didn't spell his name right): https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelschottey/2016/06/22/2016-nba-mock-draft-3-0-final-updated-draft-predictions-before-the-big-night/#774abd544e3e

Kevin O'Connor called it for Jaylen at 3d: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/22/12001638/nba-mock-draft-2016-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-lakers-76ers-celtics

So did Washburn. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2016/06/22/mock/Q1TzS0EpXfSBoAvApOmZHO/story.html

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #72 on: April 23, 2018, 09:14:45 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?

For what it is worth, I don't think this is inaccurate. I think you could find legit mock drafts that had him going 3rd. However, I also would say he was probably more likely thought of to go 5th or 6th because Dunn and Bender were really getting a lot of pre-draft hype. Dunn seemed to actually be approaching consensus number 3 at one point.

There were some evaluators who liked Jaylen 3d, but a lot had him pegged lower and there was not a public consensus. And we know there were a lot of posters around here who thought Ainge blew it by taking another defensive bulldog who couldn't shoot. This choice wasn't a sure thing - it was a good choice amid a lot of noise.

On the morning of the 2016 draft:

DraftExpress had Brown 8th: https://web.archive.org/web/20160623054049/http://www.draftexpress.com:80/

NBA DraftNet had him 9th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160629211607/http://www.nbadraft.net:80/

Tankathon had him 7th:
https://web.archive.org/web/20160620154309/http://www.tankathon.com:80/mock_draft

Hoopsrumors had him 7th: https://www.hoopsrumors.com/2016/06/hoops-rumors-2016-nba-mock-draft.html

Can't get the last ESPN big board because I don't subscribe, but Chad Ford had Boston taking Chris Dunn at 3, which of course knocked the chip off Isaiah's shoulder: https://uproxx.com/dimemag/isaiah-thomas-calls-out-chad-ford-nba-draft/. SI also wanted the Cs to take Dunn.

Others got it right.

Maybe Danny was reading Forbes! They had Jaylen 3d (although they didn't spell his name right): https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelschottey/2016/06/22/2016-nba-mock-draft-3-0-final-updated-draft-predictions-before-the-big-night/#774abd544e3e

Kevin O'Connor called it for Jaylen at 3d: https://www.sbnation.com/nba/2016/6/22/12001638/nba-mock-draft-2016-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-lakers-76ers-celtics

So did Washburn. https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/celtics/2016/06/22/mock/Q1TzS0EpXfSBoAvApOmZHO/story.html

And this is exactly my point! He wasnt consensus 3, he wasnt consensus 8, because there was no consensus. He was projected in the 3-8 range as were those five other guys. Dany didnt pull some rabbitt out of his hat with Jaylen, he picked a guy who was projected to go in that range. Someone of those 3-8 had to go 3. That doesnt mean Ainge doesnt deserved a ton of credit for the pick, but it wasnt the amazing find people make it out to be. Read those mock drafts, does anyone who projects him to go three say its a reach? No, he has sky high potential and the c's need a SF so Jaylen makes sense.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #73 on: April 23, 2018, 09:15:33 PM »

Offline droopdog7

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.
The reason for Jaylen suddenly being projected as 3rd(never saw 4th) in the draft just a week or two before the draft was because of leaks from people saying Danny was going to take Brown. The draftniks then put Jaylen at 3rd. But before that he was usually being projected towards the end of that 3-8 range.
This is 100% on the nose.  The general consensus was that Brown was closer to 8th.  I think DA may be been the only guy to draft Brown at #3.

Again have to disagree. There were leaks to that regard yes, but there were plenty of people who had him going #3 literally months before that. And others who thought he be a nice fit with his defense at 4 to the Suns (same reason many projected them to take Jackson). His draft express profile had him as a likely 3-8 pick. He was in the same range as Murray, Bender and Dunn all who we were also rumored to be interested in. And I guaranteed you Dany wasnt the only guy who would have taken him three. Respected analysts like Nate Duncan for example had him as high as even #2 on his board. This idea that he was in the 6-8 range and we reached just isnt true, he was always in play at 3 its just that our team needs at the time seemed to indicate we would trade the pick (take Dunn) or get a shooter (bender/murray) hence when Brown was picked it caught locals off guard and create this untrue narrativa that he was a reach.


I mean if you guys dont believe me I can literally pull up mock drafts ranging from after the lottery in May to the night before the draft in late June that gave jaylen going to the celtics or suns. 3-8 were all very interchanable. Is is really that surprising that an athletic freak with great size and length was in play at 3-5?
Here are the first handful of results for NBA 2016 mock drafts.  Brown was third in one of them and a lot closer to 8th in most.  Its revisionist history that Brown was any sort of a favorite to go third.


http://www.nbadraft.net/2016mock_draft
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2643426-2016-nba-mock-draft-predicting-every-pick-in-early-june
http://www.nba.com/2016/news/features/scott_howard_cooper/06/23/2016-nba-mock-draft-4-0/
https://www.si.com/nba/photo/2016/05/18/2016-nba-mock-draft#3
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelschottey/2016/05/20/2016-nba-mock-draft-full-1st-round-mock-with-lottery-done-and-draft-order-set/#181434d02487
https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-mock-draft-2016-lsus-ben-simmons-to-the-sixers-at-no-1-looks-to-be-done/
https://theundefeated.com/features/here-are-the-undefeateds-2016-nba-mock-draft-picks/#story
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-philadelphia-76ers-los-angeles-lakers-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-051816
https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-philadelphia-76ers-los-angeles-lakers-ben-simmons-brandon-ingram-051816

EDIT:  Just want to add this one which also has Jaylen at #3 but clearly references DA bringing him in for two workouts as a main reason.

https://www.foxsports.com/nba/story/2016-nba-mock-draft-philadelphia-76ers-ben-simmons-los-angeles-lakers-boston-celtics-062216

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #74 on: April 23, 2018, 09:17:05 PM »

Offline Beat LA

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I could have sworn Chad Ford had Brown going later then on his last or next to last mock had him going third ad mentioned he heard Ainge loved Brown.

Not gonna look it up but I seem to remember more sites like celticsclay mentioned having him lower.

That's how I remember it, as well. It was either that Ainge was going to take Dunn and possibly trade him in some deal with the 76ers, who loved him, or to Chicago for Butler, I believe.

Either way, me thinks that the general consensus was that Ainge could have gotten Brown at, say, five, if he had wanted to trade down or something. I think.