Author Topic: Danny's drafting ability reputation  (Read 4370 times)

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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #45 on: April 22, 2018, 02:57:01 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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Ainge loves his bad-shooting, feisty, defense first guards. Giddens was his prototype.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #46 on: April 23, 2018, 07:28:25 AM »

Offline Big333223

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #47 on: April 23, 2018, 08:23:32 AM »

Offline Moranis

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
The Hawks drafted at least 2 (Horford and Teague).  I didn't even need to look that one up.  The Mavs have had 8 1st round picks in the last 15 years and one of those 8 they traded on draft day for Lou Williams and a couple of 2nd rounders and the only 1 of those picks that was a top 10 pick was Dennis Smith in the last draft.  So I have hard time comparing a team like Dallas that is always trading picks to a team like the Celtics which has had a ton of 1st round picks.  The Spurs won 50 games every single season in that stretch, one year they had a 1st round pick that was not 26 or lower and that pick was 20.  Again, you can't really compare that to a team with a much more varied drafting history.  I will give you that the Pistons (no top 5 picks except Darko) and Bucks (Parker and Bogut only top 5 picks) have just the 1 all star during that period, but those teams have gone through the general managers so I'm not sure they would help the position that Ainge has done a good job because he is on the same level as the Pistons and Bucks when it comes to drafting.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #48 on: April 23, 2018, 08:35:52 AM »

Offline Sophomore

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I have a hard time comparing a team like Dallas that is always trading picks to a team like the Celtics which has had a ton of 1st round picks. 

Most of those first-round picks were late to mid-first round. It's rare to get an all-star that low in the draft.

Looking at DA's last four drafts, I see Smart, Rozier, Brown, and Tatum as the first player chosen. Smart is flawed, but looking at who was picked afterward in that draft, it's hard to say Danny didn't get good value. He could have done worse - next five players were Julius Randle, Nik Stauskas, Noah Vonleh, Elfrid Payton, Doug McDermott.  Rozier at 16 was pretty good value for the middle of the first round. Brown and Tatum? You could say these were high picks so Ainge doesn't get credit for an easy win, but I don't think that's fair. There were a *lot* of doubters on the Brown pick. Tatum? How many mocks had it as a no-brainer that Fultz was the best player on the board? That Tatum was limited as an athlete and a shooter, so not in the same tier? Philly clearly had it that way on their board. They traded us what's likely to be a high lottery pick in order to pass on Tatum and pick Fultz. Ainge made the right decision, a big one, instead of the safe, wrong decision.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #49 on: April 23, 2018, 08:46:28 AM »

Offline Big333223

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
The Hawks drafted at least 2 (Horford and Teague).  I didn't even need to look that one up.  The Mavs have had 8 1st round picks in the last 15 years and one of those 8 they traded on draft day for Lou Williams and a couple of 2nd rounders and the only 1 of those picks that was a top 10 pick was Dennis Smith in the last draft.  So I have hard time comparing a team like Dallas that is always trading picks to a team like the Celtics which has had a ton of 1st round picks.  The Spurs won 50 games every single season in that stretch, one year they had a 1st round pick that was not 26 or lower and that pick was 20.  Again, you can't really compare that to a team with a much more varied drafting history.  I will give you that the Pistons (no top 5 picks except Darko) and Bucks (Parker and Bogut only top 5 picks) have just the 1 all star during that period, but those teams have gone through the general managers so I'm not sure they would help the position that Ainge has done a good job because he is on the same level as the Pistons and Bucks when it comes to drafting.

My bad. I forgot Teague made an all star game that year Atlanta won 60 games.

Still, the rest of those examples are valid. Giving the reasons for why they haven't drafted more than 1 all star doesn't change the fact that it happened. And this is all within the context of Ainge acquiring multiple all stars through other means.

I don't see how it's shocking.
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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #50 on: April 23, 2018, 09:53:16 AM »

Offline GC003332

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

It is?

By my count, in the same time period, the Spurs, Mavericks, Hawks, Pistons, and Bucks have also only drafted 1 all star. The Rockets and Sun haven't drafted a single all star in the time Ainge has been in charge of the Celtics.

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times in those years, I don't see anything shocking about it. Especially when you consider he acquired 4 players who made at least 1 all star team while with the Celtics in other ways.
TP

A few more teams that have only drafted one all star since 2003 - Lakers, Heat, Nets,Kings,Hornets/Bobcats and Nuggets.
 
Garnett
Allen
Thomas
Irving
Horford

that is 5 by my count.

I totally disagree that it is shocking and have nothing more to say on this matter. ;)

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #51 on: April 23, 2018, 11:16:22 AM »

Offline footey

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Danny seems to do better on trades than he does on drafting.

This is partly explained by the fact that he hasn't had many high draft picks; when he does, we do pretty well.

It also underscores the difficulty of drafting when players come out so early. There is simply not enough data to accurately project future performance.

I think Danny is a great evaluator of talent in the NBA. He has a good feel which players are capable of more growth.  IT for example.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #52 on: April 23, 2018, 11:44:47 AM »

Offline droopdog7

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So Danny assembles title winning team that takes us on an unforgettable four year ride, dips into the lottery one time since then, and now has us on the verge of a dynasty...and people have the nerve to complain about him...for anything?

Man, some people can never be satisfied.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #53 on: April 23, 2018, 01:09:38 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder

This is another interesting one to take a look at. Is going 50% that bad?

Let's look at the top 6 (since Noel was 6) of the last few drafts. Keep in mind that recent drafts often tend to look better, because players haven't fallen off the cliff or plateaued yet (think of how Tristan Thompson looked even 2 years ago, for example; same with the futures of Parker, MKG, etc).

2017 - Fultz, Ball, Tatum, Jackson, Fox, Isaac. Too early to tell.
2016 - Simmons, Ingram, Brown, Bender, Dunn, Hield. Early again, but Hield and Dunn are a bit underwhelming, Bender hasn't shown much; the others seem good.
2015 - KAT, d'angelo russel, Okafor, Porzingis, Hezonja, cauley stein
2014 - Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, A Gordon, Exum, Smart.
2013 - Bennet, Oladipo, porter, c zeller, Len, Noel
2012 - A Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, Thomas Robinson, Lillard
2011 - Irving, Derrick WIlliams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson, Valenciunas, Veseley
2010 - Wall, Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson, Cousins, Udoh
2009 - Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Evans, Rubio, Flynn
2008 - Rose, Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook, Love, Gallinari

So 50% or so is about right. It's more about number of chances to hit that being exceptionally good at hitting.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #54 on: April 23, 2018, 01:24:28 PM »

Offline wiley

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting. 

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #55 on: April 23, 2018, 01:33:26 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.


Fun fact about the Nuggets. They really did well in the 2014 draft - Jokic, Harris, Nurkic - drafting 16th, 19th, and 41st. But what's odd is that I think most people would rank the players opposite their draft position. They got the Joker at 41 - after the whole league passed, and after Denver passed to pick Nurkic and Harris. They got a little lucky there.
« Last Edit: April 23, 2018, 02:36:26 PM by Sophomore »

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #56 on: April 23, 2018, 02:24:16 PM »

Offline incoherent

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Danny's rep is not in question anymore.  Two drafts in a row LA had better picks then us and got the worse player.  Brown >>> Ingram, Tatum >>> Ball and its not even close.




Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #57 on: April 23, 2018, 02:35:44 PM »

Offline Sophomore

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Danny's rep is not in question anymore.  Two drafts in a row LA had better picks then us and got the worse player.  Brown >>> Ingram, Tatum >>> Ball and its not even close.

Beating the Lakers in two drafts is worth a lot... TP.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #58 on: April 23, 2018, 03:14:32 PM »

Offline nickagneta

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Danny's rep is not in question anymore.  Two drafts in a row LA had better picks then us and got the worse player.  Brown >>> Ingram, Tatum >>> Ball and its not even close.
You might have an argument that Danny got a better player than the Lakers in 3 straight drafts even though they drafted lower than the Lakers. I think it can be argued that Rozier is slightly better than Russell.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #59 on: April 23, 2018, 04:06:29 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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Jaylen Brown is doing his part to bump up Ainge's draft rep.  Jaylen was not viewed as third pick material by a huge majority of media, scouts, draft sites, bloggers, etc..

-There were concerns about his bbiq and ability to play within a team concept (not due to selfishness just due to bbiq).

-There were concerns about his outside shooting (he must have dispelled those with his great pre-draft shooting exhibition for Celts.)

-There were concerns about his ball handling.

On average he was probably expected to go between pick 6 and 8.  Ainge took him at 3 and looks great right now for doing so. 

Dunn was this blog's favorite along with one or two others I'm forgetting...I wanted Dunn (who has looked good in spurts when healthy, but not in the same league as Brown).

Then the trade down for Tatum has only boosted his rep. more.  Rozier has looked great too and that pick came out of nowhere for most of us.  The last three years have helped reverse some previous consternation (deserved or not) with Ainge's drafting.

I see this take alot but its not really true. Jaylen Brown was widely considered as part of the second tier of propects from 3-8 and severa mock draft a in the few weeks before the draft had him at 3 or 4 to the suns. So I wouldn't say Ainge made some genius move taking him in the range everyone thought he would go. Still picked the right guy, but this narrativa is largey driven by the fact everyone thought wed take Dunn to later trade him.