Author Topic: Danny's drafting ability reputation  (Read 4457 times)

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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #30 on: April 21, 2018, 05:33:49 PM »

Offline Erik

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I also want to point out that it doesn’t mean someone is good at picking when they get Simmons at 1 or Oladipo at 2. That was where they were supposed to be drafted. Being good at drafting is when you reach successfully (Jaylen Brown) or side step mines (everyone that passed on Nerlens), or trading up or down because you believe in someone. If the kid falls in your lap, it doesn’t signal genius.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #31 on: April 21, 2018, 05:38:53 PM »

Offline IDreamCeltics

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #32 on: April 21, 2018, 06:07:24 PM »

Offline Big333223

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #33 on: April 21, 2018, 06:31:00 PM »

Offline Moranis

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #34 on: April 21, 2018, 06:59:52 PM »

Offline Big333223

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
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Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #35 on: April 22, 2018, 01:34:43 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #36 on: April 22, 2018, 09:08:51 AM »

Offline Moranis

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.
Rondo is the only player Ainge drafted that has made an all stat team. Not even Big Al Jeff made one.  Obviously Brown and Tatum still might but you don't need to call it superstar for his general point to remain.

I guess I'm not sure what his general point was.
in 15 years to only have drafted 1 all star is pretty shocking

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #37 on: April 22, 2018, 09:20:38 AM »

Offline Moranis

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder
Noel was not a top 5 pick.  Still probably a miss at 6 and Okafor certainly was but the Sixers before and during Hinkie have actually been a pretty darn good drafting team starting with Iggy at 9 in 2004 and moving forward.  Lots of very strong value selections.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #38 on: April 22, 2018, 10:06:15 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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15 Years as a GM and he's never drafted a superstar... That's pretty wild.

I guess Rondo is the closest thing?

Is it?

Over that 15 year period, by my count, there have only been about 20 players I would call "superstars" drafted. Up until the Brooklyn picks (that became Brown and Tatum) Danny only had 3 top ten selections and 2 of those were traded away (in 2006 and 2007, the 3rd was Smart).

Given that the C's have only missed the playoffs 3 times during his tenure and the only time he's ever had picks in the top 4, he selected 2 players that appear to have star potential, I don't think it's wild at all.

Totally.

Agree with your other post too, would grade Ainge a B to A-.

You want bad drafting? Look at Minnesota in the past 2 decades, and Philly (going 50% on top 5 picks, with Okafor and Nerlens Noel). Look at the Kings and the Suns. At least Ainge didn't crap the bed on his top picks.

On the other hand, Ainge is probably not on the level of OKC and the Warriors in the past 10 years. The Nuggets are probably above him too.

I'd argue Ainge does decently, especially in the lottery, getting expected value, in some cases when faced with precarious propositions:
  • I recall the Marcus Smart draft was a 2 player draft with Wiggins and Parker, and after that a morass of solid talent. Let's forget the late picks - as someone else mentioned, be realistic, nobody was going to waste a top pick on Jokic (are you kidding!). Ainge was faced with Smart, Randle, Stauskas and Vonleh, and I'd say Randle and Smart is a tossup at this point - and at least he didn't go with Vonleh
  • The Tatum draft no doubt was a solid move, again in a precarious position
  • The mid-late first round Ainge has missed on Giannis, but Olynk and Jajuan Johnson is about what you'd expect out of a mid-late first rounder
Noel was not a top 5 pick.  Still probably a miss at 6 and Okafor certainly was but the Sixers before and during Hinkie have actually been a pretty darn good drafting team starting with Iggy at 9 in 2004 and moving forward.  Lots of very strong value selections.

My bad on those factual mistakes. TP and thank you for the corrections.

A very skin deep way of gauging one aspect of Ainge's drafting skills would be his top lottery picks (Smart, Brown, Tatum) versus the 76ers' and other teams. Ainge will hopefully have another lottery pick next year (or, better yet, somehow get one this year). Will give something to compare to against the 6ers' draft history. Currently Ainge looks like the winner (probably speaking as a homer) - though the there'll probably never be enough data points to draw any meaningful conclusion this way from sheer data analysis in a vacuum.

At the very least we could all be glad that Ainge's drafting skills are decent enough, such that we aren't a perennial lottery team.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #39 on: April 22, 2018, 10:50:10 AM »

Offline jambr380

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I also feel like the Brown pick can't be understated. In a 2 player draft, the Celtics had the 3rd pick and there were 6 players who easily could have been drafted at #3; it was a no-win situation. But somehow, someway, Danny managed to choose the [apparent] next best player after Simmons. He also went against popular opinion and kept the pick (along with other picks and solid players who would later be used in the Kyrie deal) instead of dealing it for Jimmy Butler.

Also, Rondo was an absolute homerun at 21. Every year there are one or two players who go much later than they should, but it's not like the same teams pick them. There are 30 teams and they are pretty well spread out. Danny has done a good job at drafting solid NBA caliber players and he has often had to choose much later on than his colleagues.

After Tatum and Brown become all-stars, hopefully we can lay all of this to rest. He is already without a doubt the best trader in the business.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #40 on: April 22, 2018, 11:47:12 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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I also feel like the Brown pick can't be understated. In a 2 player draft, the Celtics had the 3rd pick and there were 6 players who easily could have been drafted at #3; it was a no-win situation. But somehow, someway, Danny managed to choose the [apparent] next best player after Simmons. He also went against popular opinion and kept the pick (along with other picks and solid players who would later be used in the Kyrie deal) instead of dealing it for Jimmy Butler.

Well put.

Some of these picks are exceptional because they go against conventional valuations (that we know of anyway). Ainge has done so well going against the grain.

Here's another one. He didn't only hit on Rozier, he picked Rozier several picks ahead of where he should be.


Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #41 on: April 22, 2018, 12:48:39 PM »

Offline keevsnick

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I also feel like the Brown pick can't be understated. In a 2 player draft, the Celtics had the 3rd pick and there were 6 players who easily could have been drafted at #3; it was a no-win situation. But somehow, someway, Danny managed to choose the [apparent] next best player after Simmons. He also went against popular opinion and kept the pick (along with other picks and solid players who would later be used in the Kyrie deal) instead of dealing it for Jimmy Butler.

Well put.

Some of these picks are exceptional because they go against conventional valuations (that we know of anyway). Ainge has done so well going against the grain.

Here's another one. He didn't only hit on Rozier, he picked Rozier several picks ahead of where he should be.
I feel like soemimes the Jaylen pick gets a little overplayed because everyone seems to think he was projected to go lower. In reality he was as you say in that six player tier that could go 3-8, and he went three. So to say he was picked ahead of hwere he should go isnt entirely accurate. In any case Dany still made the right call, I think the fact he reissted trading the pick for win now help is actually more impressive than picking the right in that tier.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #42 on: April 22, 2018, 01:50:59 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Grading drafting ability is hard; context always has to be taken into account.

By my count, the following players have been on at least 1 All-NBA team since 2003:

Al Horford^
Al Jefferson^
Allen Iverson* (6)
Amar'e Stoudemire (4)
Andre Drummond^
Andrew Bogut^
Andrew Bynum
Anthony Davis^
Baron Davis
Ben Wallace (3)
Blake Griffin^
Brandon Roy
Carlos Boozer^
Carmelo Anthony^
Chauncey Billups
Chris Bosh
Chris Paul (2)^
Damian Lillard^
David Lee^
DeAndre Jordan^
DeMar DeRozan^
Deron Williams^
Derrick Rose^
Dirk Nowitzki^ (10)
Draymond Green^
Dwight Howard^
Dwyane Wade (4)^
Elton Brand
Giannis Antetokounmpo^
Gilbert Arenas
Goran Dragić^
Isaiah Thomas^
James Harden^
Jason Kidd* (6)
Jermaine O'Neal (3)
Jimmy Butler^
Joakim Noah^
Joe Johnson^
John Wall^
Kawhi Leonard^
Kevin Durant^
Kevin Garnett (6)
Kevin Love^
Klay Thompson^
Kobe Bryant (10)
Kyle Lowry^
Kyrie Irving^
LaMarcus Aldridge^
LeBron James^
Manu Ginóbili^
Marc Gasol^
Michael Redd
Pau Gasol^
Paul George^
Paul Pierce (3)
Paul Pierce (4)
Peja Stojaković
Rajon Rondo^
Ray Allen* (2)
Ron Artes [d
Rudy Gobert^
Russell Westbrook^
Sam Cassell
Shaquille O'Neal* (11)
Shawn Marion
Stephen Curry^
Steve Nash* (3)
Tim Duncan (10)
Tony Parker^
Tracy McGrady* (4)
Tyson Chandler^
Yao Ming*
Zach Randolph^

So those are the guys eligible for "superstar" status.

Of those players, these are the ones that could have been drafted by Ainge:

Al Jefferson - was drafted by Ainge.
Brandon Roy - Traded for Telfair and the Ratliff contract
David Lee - 30th pick.
DeAndre Jordan - 35th pick - Hated the Giddens pick at the time.
Draymond Green - 35th pick (in fact, the 3rd pick that Golden State had that draft!)
Giannis Antetokounmpo - 15th (this one hurts).
Goran Dragic - 45th pick.
Isaiah Thomas - 60 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Jimmy Butler - 30 Jujuan Johnson draft.
Joakim Noah - 10th pick, we traded #5 for Ray Allen.
Kyle Lowry - 24th; Rondo taken at 21. Lowry better career, though Rondo's peak pre-injury was preferable.
Marc Gasol - 48th
Rajon Rondo - Picked by ainge
Rudy Gobert - 27 (Olynyk draft).

So, which ones should be held against Ainge? A lot of not drafting a "superstar" is that there aren't a lot of superstars. When there are, they are usually at the very tip top of the draft, or are complete crapshoots. I mean, a lot of the above players were in no way consensus elite prospects. Further, I'd argue that it is hard to convincingly say that the teams that drafted many of the above players are super clever or excellent at drafting, given that many times those teams either passed on these superstars once in the draft before taking them, or failed to trade up to make sure they nabbed this superstar player.

One way to look at the above is that there are 14 players who have made all-nba that were available with draft picks Ainge had, and Ainge picked 2 of those 14. There are 30 NBA teams. So that's kind of interesting.

There are 2 that stand out:
- Leaping up to pick 13 for the right to pass on Giannis sucks
- Drafting JR giddens for any reason whatsoever, but more than that, passing on Jordan to do so.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #43 on: April 22, 2018, 02:01:55 PM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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TP. Good content, useful for perspective.

Now if only there was an easy way to do this for rotational players...!

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #44 on: April 22, 2018, 02:43:40 PM »

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I think the Giddens pick was a bad pick. Ainge was going for someone to contribute right away on an older team and whiffed. I think Giddens was expected to go mid 2nd to not drafted. Horrid choice. But I don't hold Jordan against him. 30 GMs passed on Jordan because the chances of him hitting his ceiling was so low. A couple GMs passed on DeAndre twice. He was far from a sure thing.

But he was identified as a decent 2nd round pick to possibly be a good pro in a deep draft. Jordan, Pekovic, Dorsey, Douglas-Roberts, Chalmers, and Mbah a Moute had all been identified as possible good NBA rotation players. Dragic and Asik weren't but became solid to great NBA players.

Its a bad pick because Danny reached on someone that wasn't identified by most draft sites and scouts as being any good when there was a plethora of players that were still on the board that were identified as having a good chance to be players.