Author Topic: Danny's drafting ability reputation  (Read 3797 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #15 on: April 20, 2018, 04:29:59 PM »

Offline celticsclay

  • Don Nelson
  • ********
  • Posts: 8956
  • Tommy Points: 981
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

I agree with all of this..

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #16 on: April 20, 2018, 05:01:10 PM »

Offline ImShakHeIsShaq

  • Tiny Archibald
  • *******
  • Posts: 7284
  • Tommy Points: 742
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

Preach and Amen!!
It takes me 3hrs to get to Miami and 1hr to get to Orlando... but I *SPIT* on their NBA teams! "Bless God and bless the (Celts)"-Lady GaGa (she said gays but she really meant Celts)

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #17 on: April 20, 2018, 05:17:44 PM »

Online Green-18

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 538
  • Tommy Points: 50
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

Preach and Amen!!

I'll be the 3rd to agree with this completely.  In context Marcus is absolutely a "hit".

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #18 on: April 20, 2018, 05:27:25 PM »

Offline nickagneta

  • Global Moderator
  • Walter Brown
  • ********************************
  • Posts: 32460
  • Tommy Points: 5340
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
« Last Edit: April 20, 2018, 06:55:08 PM by nickagneta »

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #19 on: April 20, 2018, 11:39:24 PM »

Offline Moranis

  • Global Moderator
  • Dennis Johnson
  • ******************
  • Posts: 18562
  • Tommy Points: 873
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
Harden was the 3rd pick but the 2nd best player from his draft. That is a hit by any measure.  Blake though is more questionable as Curry and Harden are clearly better and DeRozan probably is as well. Then couple that with Blake not only missing a full season but also constantly being injured and I think you could quite easily say Blake was a miss as the #1 pick in that draft. Any time a top 5 pick starts dropping at least 2 if not 3 spots in value it is much easier to say it is a miss rather than a hit.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #20 on: April 21, 2018, 12:12:42 AM »

Offline nickagneta

  • Global Moderator
  • Walter Brown
  • ********************************
  • Posts: 32460
  • Tommy Points: 5340
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
Harden was the 3rd pick but the 2nd best player from his draft. That is a hit by any measure.  Blake though is more questionable as Curry and Harden are clearly better and DeRozan probably is as well. Then couple that with Blake not only missing a full season but also constantly being injured and I think you could quite easily say Blake was a miss as the #1 pick in that draft. Any time a top 5 pick starts dropping at least 2 if not 3 spots in value it is much easier to say it is a miss rather than a hit.
Completely disagree and have nothing more to say on the matter.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #21 on: April 21, 2018, 12:13:50 AM »

Offline gouki88

  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2621
  • Tommy Points: 170
Always hate the whole "In a redraft player x would have gone lower so he was a bad pick where he was chosen"

Blake Griffin and James Harden aren't bad picks because Steph Curry was chosen after them.

Same for John Wall because Cousins and George were selected after him. Same for the Greg Monroe pick because George and Hayward were taken after him.

And Valanciunas wasn't a bad pick because players chosen much later like Butler, Kawhi and IT were better than him.
Harden was the 3rd pick but the 2nd best player from his draft. That is a hit by any measure.  Blake though is more questionable as Curry and Harden are clearly better and DeRozan probably is as well. Then couple that with Blake not only missing a full season but also constantly being injured and I think you could quite easily say Blake was a miss as the #1 pick in that draft. Any time a top 5 pick starts dropping at least 2 if not 3 spots in value it is much easier to say it is a miss rather than a hit.
Are you seriously arguing that Blake was a miss?

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #22 on: April 21, 2018, 12:36:12 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1669
  • Tommy Points: 147
Regarding Smart, check out the average 6th pick -

2017 - Jonathan Isaac
2016 - Buddy Hield
2015 - Willie Cauley Stein
2014 - Marcus Smart
2013 - Nerlens Noel
2012 - Damian Lillard
2011 - Jan Vesely
2010 - Ekpe Udoh
2009 - Jonny Flynn
2008 - Danilo Gallinari
2007 - Yi Jianlian
2006 - Brandon Roy
2005 - Martell Webster
2004 - Josh Childress
2003 - Chris Kaman
2002 - Dajuan Wagner
2001 - Shane Battier
2000 - DerMarr Johnson
1999 - Wally Szczerbiak
1998 - Robert Traylor
1997 - Ron Mercer
1996 - Antoine Walker

There's of course a lot of noise, I recall a reddit post suggesting that the second pick has expected less value than the third based on a certain advanced metric. But this gives you a rough idea - Smart does not seem to be a miss based on just an eye test of these players.

For the Doc years one pet argument I have is that Doc has had influence over drafting, and probably player development. But now that you lay it out like this, it seems even in his "bad" years he's hit his fair share even in the late first.

Rather than thinking of all the missed opportunities, think about how he's made a solid 40% of his picks picking 16 or after.

Contrast this to the Clippers, who have been notoriously bad at developing talent in recent years - if they'd even hit 20% of their draft picks after getting Blake Griffin, they would have had roughly 2 more rotational players to put alongside CP3/Blake/Jordan (just based on the fact that they've made 9 picks after Blake, none of which are noteworthy players besides Aminu, and none are even on their roster now).

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #23 on: April 21, 2018, 04:07:31 AM »

Online mr. dee

  • Rajon Rondo
  • *****
  • Posts: 5692
  • Tommy Points: 414
It's amazing how fickle things like "drafting ability" can be.  Danny’s been the C’s GM for 15 years now, and in that time it seems like his reputation went from good drafter, to bad drafter, to great drafter.
   
If you asked me, in his first 5 years, I thought Ainge drafted pretty well, especially for a team that was mostly drafting outside of the lottery.  Now he didn’t hit any grand slam home runs, didn't nab any All-NBA/All-Stars in the 2nd round, but he had a couple big hits in Big Al and Rondo, and a lot of solid if unspectacular picks with the rest, many of which he was eventually able to flip for value at some point.  To me the only whiffs were Marcus Banks and using #7 to trade for Telfair, the rest were good moves.  I considered this a good 5 year stretch for Ainge:

'03-'07: Trying to rebuilding around Pierce years
Hits                                  Misses     
Kendrick Perkins                 Marcus Banks
Al Jefferson                        #7 for Telfair
Delonte West
Tony Allen
Gerald Green
Ryan Gomes
Rajon Rondo
Leon Powe
Glen Davis
#5 for Ray Allen


But then once the C's assembled the championship team for '08, Ainge didn't seem to do so well. Definitely had a solid hit in Avery Bradley, and Sullinger contributed all 4 years even if Ainge was unable to get any value for him in the end and was lost for nothing,  but now the hits seemed few and far in between.  Suddenly he wasn't getting those consistent solid hits in the late first rounds like he did when the team was rebuilding, nor was he nabbing any rotation players in the 2nd.  Not only was he not drafting good players, but he was missing out on great players, studs like DeAndre Jordan, Jimmy Butler, Isaiah Thomas, Draymond Green who were all available near where Danny was drafting.  This hurt his reputation too, passing up studs to draft duds.  More misses over the same number of drafts with fewer picks.  Maybe Danny wasn't really a good drafter, and just got lucky over his first 5 years?

'08-'12: Big 3 Era
Hits                                  Misses     
Avery Bradley                    JR Giddens
Jared Sullinger                   JaJuan Johnson
                                        Fab Melo


Then the C's enter a new rebuilding era with Stevens, and at first, Danny's drafting looks a little murkier here.  Guys like Olynyk and Smart were okay where they were drafted, and while Olynyk was lost for nothing he did help win a playoff series coming up huge in Game 7 vs. Washington.  He was a solid contributor all 4 years, and the same can be said for Smart.  They weren’t duds, but it’s hard not to look at Olynyk and not think about how the C’s could have had Giannis, while at the same time wondering if Smart should be brought back and will be worth his next contract.  While not whiffs, these picks weren’t helping his reputation as a drafter.  Then it seemed like a lot of busts and question marks:  James Young was a bust.  RJ Hunter was a bust.  The Rozier pick was (now infamously) given an F.  Danny tried to trade 4-6 picks for Justice Winslow, he picked Jaylen Brown about 5-6 spots too high, he failed to flip players or picks for Noel or Okafor, he passed up a generational talent in Fultz to draft Tatum, who trades out of the #1 spot?  He let Josh Jackson’s reps bully him into drafting somebody else.  In between the ’16 (Brown) and ’17 (Tatum) drafts, Danny’s reputation has a drafter still hadn’t been repaired.

As of now though, Danny looks like a genius again.  The recent picks that were criticized, now look like gold.  Rozier has ascended to meme status, Brown and Tatum look like studs.  Others laughed at Danny, but now Danny's the one laughing.

'13-'17: The Golden Era of Stevens
Hits                                  Misses         
Kelly Olynyk                      James Young
Marcus Smart                    RJ Hunter
Terry Rozier
Jaylen Brown
Jayson Tatum

(With Yabusele and recent 2nd rounders too soon to tell).


All this to say, I think it's interesting how Danny's drafting reputation has been all over the place, especially how it seems to have flipped recently.  Solid in the first 5 years, disappointing in the contending years, and it didn't look good at first during the Stevens era, but now it looks great.  Still it could swing the other way again (Fultz could have an MVP season, Rozier comes back to earth and is lost for nothing, Brown and Tatum's career trajectory starts to look more like Michael Carter Williams, etc.).  But for now, it's nice that our GM looks like a great drafter again.  In Danny I trust!

 You forgot E'twaun Moore. He's a solid starter that about to enter the second round this season with the Pelicans.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #24 on: April 21, 2018, 10:42:47 AM »

Offline timpiker

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1176
  • Tommy Points: 75
I think "draft success", especially outside the lottery, has a LOT to do with the coach....nurturing, minutes, encouragement, right circumstances....

Compare Doc to Brad.  Which one do you think would bring a rookie along the right way?  See what I mean?

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #25 on: April 21, 2018, 12:40:07 PM »

Offline nostar

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 720
  • Tommy Points: 64
I read somewhere that the Thunder have re-hired Rob Hennigan as Assistant GM, and it made me want take a look in to his draft history and transactions over his 5.5 year run in Orlando.

2012   1   19   Andrew Nicholson
2012   2   49   Kyle O'Quinn
2013   1   2   Victor Oladipo
2013   2   51   Romero Osby
2014   1   4   Aaron Gordon
2014   1   12   Dario Šarić
2015   1   5   Mario Hezonja
2015   2   51   Tyler Harvey
2016   1   11   Domantas Sabonis
2016   2   41   Stephen Zimmerman
2016   2   47   Jake Layman

Drafting is a crap shoot and everyone misses, but Oladipo, Gordon, Saric, and Sabonis is a very promising team. Consider that they also had Mo Harkless, Tobias Harris, E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Vucevic as either 1st or 2nd year players when Hennigan took over, and that is kind of a good set of players to work with toward rebuilding.

Of course if Hennigan isn't making trades to stunt their team, they may not be in position to have all of those players. Mostly I wanted to focus on the fact that, while Hennigan is an okay drafter, he just happened to be really terrible at everything else.

Guys like Danny Ainge are rare. He has an above average drafting record and a nearly unimpeachable trade history, in addition to hiring great coaches and staff (Zarren shoutout!).

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #26 on: April 21, 2018, 12:55:28 PM »

Offline Erik

  • Gordon Hayward
  • Posts: 561
  • Tommy Points: 114
  • The voice of reason
Just to set the record straight, Philly is the one that “drafted” Saric. Orlando was just their proxy.

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #27 on: April 21, 2018, 01:07:27 PM »

Offline smokeablount

  • Bill Walton
  • *
  • Posts: 1390
  • Tommy Points: 79
  • When my account was born, Mark Blount was our C :(
If Smart goes top 10 in a redraft, he barely sneaks in at #10.

Of the original top 10, Embiid, Wiggins (still), Gordon and Randle all go ahead of him.  That's 4.

Of the other guys, Jokic, Nurkic, Harris, Saric and Capela all go ahead of him, at least.  That's 5.

There's no reasonable way to hold Capela or Jokic against him. Those guys went #25 and #41 and no team remotely considered them top-10.

The "redraft" logic where a guy goes slightly later is totally flawed. You can't hold the entire draft year against the GM where a 2nd rounder becomes a star.

Embiid, Wiggins, Gordon weren't on the board.

Saric would have made us wait 2 more years.

We needed a PG. Smart could have gone #2 the year before.

Randle, sure. The next guy picked might be slightly better right now.

I just don't see how Smart was a bad pick at #6 in that draft, unless you're fishing for reasons or making unfair comparisons like Jokic.

I agree with all of this..

Relax fellas, in the very next post I call Smart a hit.

He just doesn’t go top 10 in a redraft.
Give us this pick, Almighty Red
And forgive us our tanking
As we forgive those who tanked against us
And lead us not into the lottery
But deliver us from losing

-Sexyscottish

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #28 on: April 21, 2018, 03:07:24 PM »

Offline tazzmaniac

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3604
  • Tommy Points: 327
I read somewhere that the Thunder have re-hired Rob Hennigan as Assistant GM, and it made me want take a look in to his draft history and transactions over his 5.5 year run in Orlando.

2012   1   19   Andrew Nicholson
2012   2   49   Kyle O'Quinn
2013   1   2   Victor Oladipo
2013   2   51   Romero Osby
2014   1   4   Aaron Gordon
2014   1   12   Dario Šarić
2015   1   5   Mario Hezonja
2015   2   51   Tyler Harvey
2016   1   11   Domantas Sabonis
2016   2   41   Stephen Zimmerman
2016   2   47   Jake Layman

Drafting is a crap shoot and everyone misses, but Oladipo, Gordon, Saric, and Sabonis is a very promising team. Consider that they also had Mo Harkless, Tobias Harris, E'Twaun Moore and Nikola Vucevic as either 1st or 2nd year players when Hennigan took over, and that is kind of a good set of players to work with toward rebuilding.

Of course if Hennigan isn't making trades to stunt their team, they may not be in position to have all of those players. Mostly I wanted to focus on the fact that, while Hennigan is an okay drafter, he just happened to be really terrible at everything else.

Guys like Danny Ainge are rare. He has an above average drafting record and a nearly unimpeachable trade history, in addition to hiring great coaches and staff (Zarren shoutout!).
He drafted Saric for the Sixers.  He traded the #12 (Saric) plus a future protected Sixers 1st (via Howard trade) plus a 2nd round pick to get the #10 (Payton).  The Sixers would have taken Saric at #10.  So he got swindled by Hinkie.     

Re: Danny's drafting ability reputation
« Reply #29 on: April 21, 2018, 05:06:58 PM »

Offline Big333223

  • NCE
  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4225
  • Tommy Points: 383
The problem with these conversations is we don't have much to compare to. How often does an average GM hit or miss on a prospect?

My sense is drafting is hard and Danny has made enough good picks over the years for me to feel relatively confident in whoever he and his team select and he's missed enough to keep me from worshipping them.
1957, 1959, 1960, 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1965, 1966, 1968, 1969, 1974, 1976, 1981, 1984, 1986, 2008, 2018