Rozier has passed my eye test. He has looked good. If I am Terry Rozier, I know that I'm a starting point guard in the NBA. I think he has at least that much confidence.
Looking around at the teams as potential fits: CLE, IND, DET, ORL, PHO.
As a Celtics fan, I want both Rozier and Smart back on the second unit. On the other hand, if you can couple Rozier with a draft pick to get a top 10 pick in a future draft, I think you make the move. Danny can continue to build a strong surplus of future talent on cheap contracts.
Rookie deals and expiring veteran contracts will become increasingly important moving forward. We all want Marcus and Rozier back but there will be major luxury tax concerns once Jaylen Brown is due for his max deal in a few years. I can see Rozier getting $20 million on the open market. My guy tells me that Ainge will look to deal Rozier for a pick in the 10-12 range + a solid veteran in a contract year. Unfortunately I can't picture a team giving up a pick inside the top 10.
It depends on the team. Rozier is a known and a proven player. He will cost a lot which could be a deterrent but if he is traded to a team with a lot of cap room it would not matter to them to get a player in his prime that is developed and is a starter. You have no clue what you will get out of a top 10 pick and it will take years for that player to get to Terry's production. There will be a lot of suiters for Terry even if it's a trade that nets the C's a 2nd year player with upside.
Part of me wonders if we should expect a better contribution out of a top 10 pick now that we have a much stronger roster. Brad should be able to integrate a rookie's strengths more effectively with a roster of Kyrie, Hayward, Horford, Jaylen, Tatum, and Smart. If we acquired a pick in the 9-11 range then I wouldn't mind drafting a player like Collin Sexton.
I lean toward keeping Rozier, because I think that maximizes our chances of a title next year. Even if we lose him for nothing, the title is forever.
That said, I'm interested in the trade thought experiment.
The problem I keep having is: who is our trade partner? Picks 9-11 are the Knicks, Philadelphia, and Charlotte. Charlotte has Kemba Walker. Philly's PG situation is hazy at best, but I don't see them giving us the 9 for Rozier. The Knicks arguably have a need, but I think they're looking at Ntilikina as their future and again you're trading inside your own division. One team that might make sense on paper is the Clips. They've got the 12 (from Detroit) and the 13 (their own). So maybe they'd be interested in spending one of those picks to get a proven but still young vet; they'd still get to keep the other pick as youth and to keep their contracts in line. One problem. Their current PG is Austin Rivers and his dad probably isn't sending him to the bench or out in a trade for TR. It'd be something for Cleveland to give us back the Brooklyn pick for TR (it's 8th now, but could easily land 9th or 10th after the draw). They'd have to value Terry very highly to revisit that trade and send back the pick...
I suppose you could package TR with a valuable pick (Sac 19) to try to pry lose a better pick (7th? 5th?). But is a high lottery team going to want that? They're not one player away from the playoffs. And who knows where the Sac pick lands. Maybe they'll still be a bad team next year, but by winning 5 more games they end up picking 12th. Or - the real nightmare - they win the draft lottery and you get Philly's pick in the high 20s.
So, who is our trading partner, then, if we want to move up this year?
